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A Bad Close Puts Stocks Unched on the Day
RiskReversal Recap: May 22, 2025
RiskReversal Media
May 22, 2025
MARKET WRAP
A little bit of a roller coaster ride for equities today, albeit within a fairly narrow range. Stocks started the day lower with treasury yields higher once again, but yields reversed lower on the day and stocks rallied… until a late day sell-off. On the Day SPX -0.04%, QQQ +0.15% and IWM -0.05%. The 10Y was lower on the day, closing near 4.54% but did get as high as 4.63% this morning. DXY rebounded a bit and is just shy of $100. The VIX is just above 20.
After hours: Earnings moves in ADSK +3% and WDAY -5%.
MRKT Call: People are coming around on the fact that the bond market is THE story. All risk assets are dependent on what happens next.
RiskReversal Pod: Packy McCormick joins to talk trends in tech, Tesla's market position, self-driving technology, the electrification revolution, and startups inspired by Elon Musk's methodologies.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks closed little changed on Thursday as yields back off recent highs (CNBC)
Dimon Warns of US Stagflation Risk, Says Fed Right to Hold (Bloomberg)
Home Sales in April Fell for the Second Straight Month (WSJ)
Trump Tax Bill Narrowly Passes House, Overcoming Infighting (Bloomberg)
Bitcoin hits new record high above $111,000 as rally marches on (CNBC)
OPEC+ Discusses Another Super-Sized Output Hike for July (Bloomberg)
Trump’s ‘Little Problem’ With Tim Cook Is a Big One for Apple (Bloomberg)
Anthropic launches Claude 4, its most powerful AI model yet (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Equities attempted to snap a multi-day losing streak that had been largely a result of rising Treasury yields (or at least it was yields that provided some cover for the market to cool off). There is a large list contributing factors to the treasury story right now, concerns over mounting federal deficits following the new spending bill, a weaker-than-expected Treasury auction yesterday, and of course Moody’s recent U.S. credit rating downgrade. Those same concerns had to 10Y as high as 4.63% earlier today. That eased to around 4.54% by the close. Equities reacted with a bounce intraday on the reversal in yields but saw selling very late in the session that ticked the SPX barely into the red.
Obviously, the inverse relationship between yields and equities is something to keep an eye on. During the chaos that was April the relationship broke down a bit, as treasuries went lower on recession fears, but also spiked higher on trade war escalations. In that case equities didn’t care as both were bad outcomes. But for now, yields creeping higher have put a bit of a top on stocks, and even today’s slight decline in yields wasn’t enough to stem that pressure.
Friday May 22:
5am - ECB Lane Speech
10am - New Home Sales
12pm - Fed Cook Speech
Expected Move SPX: 0.7%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Yield Spike Spooks Stocks
People are coming around on the fact that the bond market is THE story. All risk assets are dependent on what happens next. |
Analysis - SPX, TLT, NVDA, HYG, XHB, AAPL, MSFT, SNOW, AMZN,
SoFI Report: Decoding SPX levels, 6000, 5896, 5767
Your Questions Answered:
Lee Jay - Curious what you cats think about buying REITs?
Ethan Lipp - AAPL chart, any thoughts?
Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Meme Stocks to Model Ts: Packy McCormick on the Future of Money & Machines
Packy McCormick joins to talk trends in tech, Tesla's market position, self-driving technology, the electrification revolution, and startups inspired by Elon Musk's methodologies. |
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan dive into recent conversations with notable figures in finance and tech, including a detailed discussion on the equity risk premium and bond market. They explore the implications of stagflation in the U.S., fluctuating treasury yields, and the impact of higher interest rates. The conversation covers various market dynamics and the potential for disruptive technologies, with a spotlight on generative AI, Bitcoin's performance, and stable coins.
After the break, Packy McCormick joins the discussion to share his insights on private tech companies, significant trends in the tech industry, and how innovative firms are set to disrupt incumbent markets. Highlights include an analysis of Tesla's market position, self-driving technology, the electrification revolution, and the future of startups inspired by Elon Musk's methodologies. The episode concludes with an in-depth look at the current state of notable tech stocks and broader market themes.
Learn more about our sponsor Betterment and RBC Capital Markets.
