MARKET WRAP

A fairly quiet day in both directions, but ultimately several rally attempts failed and we saw another down day that keeps the SPX beneath its 200 day moving average. For the Day, SPX -0.3%, QQQ - 0.6% and IWM-0.4%. GM (-7.4%) was the big loser on the newest automaker tariffs, but F and others were down as well. Elsewhere, prior high flyer Applovin was down 20%. Chipmakers NVDA, AVGO and AMD also saw declines. A few bright spots in retail as DLTR, DG, and AZO were higher. Gold continues its grind to new highs, up 1.5% on the day. Yields ticked slightly higher. The VIX is creeping higher, now just shy of 19.

• On today’s MRKT Call, GM’s decline, tariff talk, a look ahead at economic data and answering yoru questions.

• On today’s RiskReversal Pod, Parshv Shah of Kingdon Capital Management on AI hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. The outlook for Nvidia, Dell, and Adobe, and the role of AI in cybersecurity

MRKT MATRIX: March 27, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 drops as traders assess Trump’s auto tariff impact (CNBC)

• Trump’s new auto tariffs will likely drive up car prices by thousands of dollars (CNBC)

• Musk’s Tesla Is One of the Only Winners From Trump’s Car Tariffs (Bloomberg)

• Why copper may be more important to the U.S. economy than oil (MarketWatch)

• RFK Jr. Plans 10,000 Job Cuts in Major Restructuring of Health Department (WSJ)

• Buying Nvidia right now is a ‘particularly attractive opportunity,’ Bank of America says (CNBC)

• AMD gets a downgrade from Jefferies as competition for semiconductors heats up (CNBC)

• CoreWeave’s debut is landmark moment in AI boom and could kick off ‘IPO parade’ (CNBC)

• GameStop shares drop 25% after the retailer issues debt to buy bitcoin (CNBC)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by SoFi

Auto Stocks Sink on Tariffs

The auto tariff effect on the market and GM’s move lower on the news. The importance of upcoming data including next week’s jobs number, and more coverage of the looming tariff deadline. Today’s episode brought to you by SoFi:

• Chart studies: SPX, US10Y, EuroStoxx, EuroStoxx Banking Index, MRVL, RDDT, DAL

• Call of the Day 1: TSLA (HSBC lowers price target)

• Call of the Day 2: AMD (Jeffries Downgrade)

• Chart of the Day: SoFi Weekly Report - S&P 500 Returns and Drawdowns, Quarterly Returns vs Other Assets, US vs International P/E

• Your Questions:

  • Opinion on the CRWV IPO?

  • Why are we using the 200 day instead of the 150 day moving average.

  • Where does one buy Broadcom AVGO?

Click here to access all of the charts mentioned in today’s MRKT Call.

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Betterment and RBC

AI Investment Promises Made, Will They Be Kept?

Dan Nathan is joined by Parshv Shah, Portfolio Manager at Kingdon Capital Management, on the RiskReversal podcast. They discuss the impact of generative AI on the stock market, particularly focusing on tech stocks and hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. The conversation covers the shifts in market sentiment, the performance and future outlook for companies like Nvidia, Dell, and Adobe, and the role of AI in cybersecurity. They also explore the implications of custom silicon and agent technology on consumer internet companies, featuring insights into the challenges and opportunities these innovations present for various tech sectors.

Timecodes 

• 0:00 - State of the AI Trade

• 11:20 - NVDA

• 17:00 - Sell-Off Dynamics

• 20:00 - GOOGL

• 26:45 - Chips & Servers

• 33:35 - Storage & Memory

• 37:15 - AI Agents

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What’s Next?

Tomorrow morning we get PCE, as well as more consumer sentiment data. We’re also entering the window over the next 2 trading days where we’ll see some end of quarter positioning that may create some bizarre moves in individual names. The expected moves into tomorrow’s close:

• SPX/SPY 0.8%

• QQQ 1.0%

• IWM 1.0%

Despite two straight days of declines from the 200 day moving average there’s no sense of panic overall. Despite that, we are getting some larger moves in individual names and a sense of some divergence and rotations. Keep an eye on that as some names (especially prior leaders, or stocks that saw large bounces from recent lows) may be signaling more weakness at the moment than is being felt in the broader market.

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