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A Friday Bounce Softens the Blow of Past Few Days
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, Sept 26th
RiskReversal Media
September 26, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities saw a healthy looking rebound today after three straight red sessions. Today’s bounce was was helped by an in-line PCE print, and not harmed by a weaker consumer sentiment number. The big AI/tech names were mostly higher, as were small caps. On the week the SPX was down a modest -0.3%, nearly +1% higher than its lows on the week. On the day: SPX +0.6%, QQQ +0.4% and IWM +0.9%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY finished the week at 4.18%, quite a bounce from last week and likely took some juice out of the rally with its bounce. Gold was higher today, Oil made a decent bounce this week, now back above $65. The dollar was down today but up on the week, with DXY now $98.15. The VIX finished at 15.30, unchanged since last Friday but it saw a spike above 17.50 mid week.
Notable Gainers: EA +15%, INTC +4.8%, APP +4.4%, TTWO +4.4%, TSLA +3.6%, BA +3.6%, JPM +1%
Notable Losers: COST -2.8%, SHOP -2.7%, ORCL -2.7%, EBAY -2.1%, META -1%, AMD -1.3%
RiskReversal Pod: Dan is joined by Marko Kolanovic to discuss Fed rate cuts, recent economic data, and how seasonal or technical factors may shape the market’s next move. Also, the durability of AI-fueled gains with concentrated tech leadership, and where there is value.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks close higher Friday after in-line inflation data, but S&P 500 snaps 3-week winning streak (CNBC)
Wall Street will need another ‘goldilocks’ number out of next week’s jobs report, with stocks vulnerable into October (CNBC)
US Consumer Spending Powers On Even as Inflation Persists (Bloomberg)
GDP and NFP Inconsistent (Apollo)
Spending on AI Is at Epic Levels. Will It Ever Pay Off? (WSJ)
Videogame Giant Electronic Arts Nears Roughly $50 Billion Deal to Go Private (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
For the week, stocks saw a little return of intraday volatility, it was also slightly less euphoric trading than recent, but despite 3 straight down days, little real fear. SPX hit an intra-week low near 6575 but immediately drew buyers and closed out the week +1% from those Thursday lows and finished just 50 points below Monday’s intraday highs.
Economic data came in mostly better than expected, which ironically weighed somewhat on equities by reinforcing the bounce in treasury yields and trimming cumulative rate cut odds. That took away some of the tailwinds for a further breakout, though for now is just looks like a market consolidating. Names like ORCL pulling back from highs added to some cooling of the more euphoric trading. The rally doesn’t appear threatened yet, but upside often requires periodic shakeouts of weaker hands, something we haven’t seen in some time.
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, it would likely take either a meaningful deterioration in economic data or a sharp test of the most crowded areas of the AI trade to completely derail the rally in a lasting way—neither of which seems imminent according to traders, with put activity still quite low.
That said, there were hints of implied volatility perking up over the past week, though today’s bounce pushed the VIX back down. A new high in small caps (IWM) could be a spark for volatility to the upside, while to the downside, a break below SPX 6500 would probably be needed before the VIX reacts in a more significant way. Either way, volatility is quite low and unlikely to go significantly lower near term.
We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of next week’s potential catalysts.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Recession Signal Big Tech Is Hiding From You
On the RiskReversal Podcast, Dan Nathan hosts Marko Kolanovic, former Chief Market Strategist at JP Morgan, to discuss recent market movements and economic trends. They explore the impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts, market reactions to recent economic data, and how seasonal factors and technical aspects could influence market dynamics. The conversation highlights concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven market gains, the concentration of tech stocks, and the potential risks posed by geopolitical issues and tariffs. Marko offers insights into strategic investments in value stocks and critiques recent government involvement in major tech companies like Intel. The discussion wraps up with reflections on the broader implications of state capitalism versus free market principles.
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