MARKET WRAP

For the first time in some time, all the major indices finished a day in the green. The final tally, SPX/SPY +1.6%, QQQ +1.6%, IWM +1.1% and the DJIA, which had been moving in contrast to the QQQs lately, also finished higher by +1.4%. The move in SPX essentially erased yesterday’s ugly decline. Today’s PCE came in more or less inline and gave equities some breathing room into the weekend. Treasury yields were lower once again, the 10y is now 4.21%. That seemed to help equities whereas it has been a source of weakness the past week.  We’ll see if that carries over into next week. Speaking of next week, data like Friday’s jobs number becomes even more crucial given the growth concerns. We’re also running into the deadlines for tariffs. So a busy week ahead. Check your email Sunday for more.

On today’s RiskReversal Pod, Tom Lee joins to discuss his market outlook amidst the bears seemingly in control for the past week.

MRKT MATRIX: February 28, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 trades higher Friday following a brief intraday sell-off on Trump-Zelenskyy spat (CNBC)

• Zelenskyy leaves White House after Ukraine talks collapse (CNBC)

• Trump’s Tariff Onslaught Is Coming Faster Than His Team Can Carry It Out (WSJ)

• Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Rises at Mild Pace, Spending Falls (Bloomberg)

• Analysts Making Larger Cuts Than Average to EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for Q1 (FactSet)

• Bitcoin Down 25% From All-Time High as Crypto Rout Worsens (Bloomberg)

• Tumbling Tesla Shares Leave Investors Bracing for More Losses (Bloomberg)

• Here are the other stocks forming the ‘death cross’ following Microsoft this week (CNBC)

• Google announces layoffs in its HR, cloud units as part of ongoing cost cuts (CNBC)

• State Street, Apollo’s Private Credit ETF Raises SEC Concern (Bloomberg)

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood

Tom Lee’s 2025 Playbook: Bears Sound Smart But Are Usually Wrong!

Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, joins the RiskReversal Podcast to discuss his market outlook. The episode covers topics such as the impact of interest rates, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's policies on market performance. Tom provides insights into bullish and bearish market sentiments, employment trends, and the role of AI and technology in driving economic growth. The conversation also explores geopolitical risks, the potential effects of deregulation and tax cuts, and the importance of consumer confidence. Additionally, Tom shares his perspectives on the future of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and the implications of generative AI on industries and employment.

• Timecodes

• 0:00 - Macro View

• 12:05 - Policy

• 22:10 - Opportunities

• 28:30 - Tax Cuts

• 31:35 - Generative AI

• 45:30 - Crypto Outlook

• 48:00 - 2025 Thus Far

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What’s Next?

We head into the weekend with the VIX hovering near 20 and a market that managed to avoid one of its worst weeks in recent memory. While equities found some stability today, implied volatility remains elevated into a week that sees key catalysts..

The spotlight will be on the tariffs (set to take effect). Whether they actually happen or whether we see a last minute reprieve is adding another layer of uncertainty to a market already grappling with slowing growth concerns. Additionally, the upcoming jobs report is becoming increasingly crucial, as investors look for any additonal signs of economic weakness.

We’ll be back on Sunday with a detailed breakdown of expected market moves, key earnings, economic data, and what’s next for equities. Check your inbox Sunday evening!

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