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A Lazy Day Beneath All Time Highs
RiskReversal Recap: June 25, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 25, 2025
MARKET WRAP
It was a quiet session, with equities finishing unchanged, and the SPX staying within a 25 point range. On the Day: SPX unched, QQQ +0.2% and IWM -1%. Elsewhere, markets were similarly subdued. Oil saw a tiny bounce following its sharp two-day drop, while the US10YY was stable, at 4.29%. Gold also with a small move higher. The dollar attempted a bounce this morning but once again finished lower, with DXY now $97.71. One consistent theme is a collapse in equity implied vol, with the VIX now 16.70.
After hours: MU is up nearly +4% on its report, so far inside its implied move. QQQ is up a tick after hours alongside MU, while SPY is slightly lower.
MRKT Call: Danny Moses joins Guy to talk the rally back to all time highs, and what’s powering it at this point. What’s next for the Fed, and the importance of the wealth effect, the housing market and more.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan host economist David Rosenberg to discuss the state of the market, economic conditions, a potential topping formation in the market and the impact of tariff policies. Plus, the labor market, the housing market, inflation, interest rates, and the potential for recession
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 ends Wednesday little changed as record high remains in reach (CNBC)
Nvidia Ruffles Tech Giants With Move Into Cloud Computing (WSJ)
S&P 500 Needs Profit Boom or Fed Cuts to Justify Lofty Levels (Bloomberg)
Wells Fargo hikes Microsoft price target, says AI business could reach $100 billion in revenue (CNBC)
More Homeowners Find Themselves Underwater (WSJ)
Credit-Card Companies Brace for a Downturn (WSJ)
Goodbye Fancy Bar, Hello At-Home Pizza Party: Young Americans Cut Back (WSJ)
Tesla’s European car sales nosedive for fifth month as customers switch to Chinese EVs (CNBC)
Investment Platform Plans to Let Anyone Bet on SpaceX (WSJ)
Republican Move to Mask $3.8 Trillion Tax-Cut Cost Rings Alarms (Bloomberg)
Bond Investors Stay Cool Despite Heated Debate Over Government Borrowing (WSJ)
Shell in Early Talks to Acquire Rival BP (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
A very lazy trading day with the SPX now hovering near the 6100 level and less than 1% of its all-time high. After Tuesday’s breakout from a multi-week consolidation range, the index now seems destined to at least touch those highs.
Although it was quiet today, the most notable movement came in the options market, where implied volatility continued to decline from the Iran/US premium. That trend could persist as we head into the July 4th holiday week. And in classic market fashion, falling implied volatility often becomes a self-fulfilling dynamic, encouraging a slow, low-volume grind higher as short-term hedging demand fades. For now, the path of least resistance still appears to be upward, albeit slowly, until more catalysts emerge, good or bad. Tomorrow, sees GDP and Friday PCE.
Thursday, June 26th
All Day - Global Central Banker speeches, EU Leaders Summit
8:30am - GDP
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims
8:30am - Durable Goods
8:30am - Pending Home Sales
After-hours: NKE 7.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: S&P500 On The Verge of All Time High
Danny Moses joins Guy to talk the rally back to all time highs, and what’s powering it at this point. What’s next for the Fed, and the importance of the wealth effect, the housing market and more.
Analysis: S&P e-minis, XHB, TOL, S&P Equal Weight, US10YY, DXY, CACC, Crude, Gold, Copper, BTC, NVDA, DUK, DKNG, FLUT
Call of the Day - Goldman upgrades Duke Energy
John Butters FactSet Earnings Report - Buy ratings percentages for S&P 500 Companies
Your Questions:
Gary Webb - Danny, What companies will be most adversely affected by credit deterioration in auto loans?
Scott A - Danny, would you be buying the online gambling stocks now? DKNG, FlUT, GENI???
Eric Metcalf - Is PLTR worth a play towards the downside?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Soft Data and Hard Truths
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan host economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research on the RiskReversal podcast to discuss the state of the market, economic conditions, and geopolitical factors. Rosenberg outlines the volatility seen in the S&P 500, emphasizing that recent market moves are sentiment and momentum-driven rather than based on fundamentals. He highlights concerns about a potential topping formation in the market and discusses the impact of tariff policies, the labor market, the housing market, and global geopolitical tensions, particularly around Israel and Iran. Rosenberg also shares his views on inflation, interest rates, and the potential for recession, suggesting that the economy may already be contracting. The discussion concludes with a focus on risks in the private equity and debt markets and the potential for pension funds to be the center of the next financial crisis.
Checkout Rosenberg Research: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
Learn more about our sponsor Betterment and iConnections.
