MARKET WRAP

Stocks traded lower today with a noticeable pickup in intraday volatility. A few mid-session headlines sparked sharp drops, with the SPX lower by about -1.25% at one point, but buyers eventually stepped in to grind things higher into the close. On the day: SPX -0.5%, QQQ -1.0% and IWM -1.5%.

Elsewhere, the US10YY ended down a tick to 3.95%. Gold was super volatile again, closing the day barely in the green but after a significant reversal intraday of nearly +2.5% off its lows. Oil, also with a large move, up nearly +4% and back near $60. The VIX got as high as 21 mid-day before closing back below 19.

Notable Gainers: IBM +2.2%, CVX +1.3%, ISRG +14%, HAL +5.2%, SLB +4.8%, BSX +4.3%

Notable Losers: NFLX -10%, TXN -5.7%, COIN -5.7%, MSTR -7%, MRVL -4.2%, AMZN -1.8%, CAT -1.8%, AMD -3.7%

After Hours: Tesla reported just after the close, it’s not moving much at all yet but conference call to follow, currently -1%.

Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy discuss today’s uptick in volatility, weakness in gold and Bitcoin, software stocks’ mixed signals, Netflix’s earnings selloff, and what to watch for in Tesla’s results tonight.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Dow closes down 300 points on trade fears, latest earnings (CNBC)

• Government shutdown becomes 2nd longest in U.S. history (CNBC)

• China’s Phone Makers Are Chasing Xiaomi, Not Apple (Bloomberg)

• Is the Flurry of Circular AI Deals a Win-Win—or Sign of a Bubble? (WSJ)

• Amazon’s switch to robots over human warehouse employees will save it up to $4 billion a year, Morgan Stanley says (CNBC)

• AI is already taking white-collar jobs. Economists warn there’s ‘much more in the tank’ (CNBC)

• Hundreds of public figures, including Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and Virgin’s Richard Branson urge AI ‘superintelligence’ ban (CNBC)

• Meta Cutting Roughly 600 AI Jobs as Company Aims to Move Faster (Bloomberg)

• Google claims ‘quantum advantage’ again - but researchers are skeptical (Nature)

• Trump Administration Live Updates: White House Changes Course and Will Demolish Entire East Wing (NYTimes)

WHAT’S NEXT?

While the overall market remains only a few percent off the highs, what’s been happening beneath the surface over the past week is more telling — a notable risk-off move across some speculative corners of the market. Former high-flyers, meme names, crypto, and even gold (which had been going parabolic for weeks) have all come under pressure at some point in the past week. So far, that unwind hasn’t hit the broader indices too hard, nor names like NVDA, which remains within striking distance of all-time highs, but it likely explains some of the uptick in vol as we move into the thick of earnings season.

The “tariff tantrum” from two Fridays ago appears to have disrupted what was an increasingly complacent tape, and since then we’ve seen some de-risking. Netflix and Texas Instruments both saw post-earnings moves that exceeded what options had priced in — especially in NFLX, which traded well below its implied range intraday. With AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, and eventually NVDA and AVGO still to come, it’ll be interesting to see whether investors keep trimming exposure ahead of those events. And, layered on top of all that, there’s an FOMC meeting wedged right in the middle of it all.

Tomorrow, the market will still be digesting TSLA’s post-earnings move, but eyes will also turn to Intel after the close for another read on the semi/AI narrative. And on Friday comes the delayed CPI report — made a bit more relevant today after a WSJ piece highlighted how limited the Fed’s visibility has become amid the government shutdown. That article alone seemed to trigger a midday wobble in equities, as traders reassessed the idea that the Fed’s next steps might be less straightforward than they appeared just a couple of weeks ago.

Thursday, October 23rd

• Pre-market: AAL 5.6%, FCX 5.2%, HON 3.8%, LUV 6.6%, TMUS 4.5%

• 10am: Existing Home Sales

• After-hours: INTC 9%, NEM 5.7%, F 5.7%

SPX expected move: 0.6%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Netflix to Tesla: Is the Growth Story Ending or About to Restart?

Vol’s picking up, gold’s rolling over, and Bitcoin’s wobbling — Dan and Guy break down what’s driving the latest rotations, which software names are finding a floor, and which are losing momentum. Plus, a look at Netflix’s post-earnings drop and a preview of Tesla’s report tonight.

Analysis - COIN, MSTR, GM, ORCL, IGV, CRM, PLTR, NFLX, WMT 

Robinhood Live Trade - IGV puts

• Your Questions

• Jack CF - Will Dan consider doing an options video discussing the different strategies?

• Jack CF - NFLX 200 day moving average has been support, Buy for reversal?

• Matt Walter - Can we talk about Tesla?

• Gary Webb - Have you looked at levels where you would add to Gold? Will miners outperform?

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