MARKET WRAP

Stocks started the week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 jumping nearly +0.5% in the first hour of trading. That was the highs for the day with a little drift lower for the balance: On the Day: SPX +0.3%, QQQ +0.4% and IWM flat.

Elsewhere, treasury yields were mostly lower, especially farther out. The 10YY is now 4.14%. Gold continues higher, up more than +1%. Oil got hit pretty hard on an OPEC increase, now back near $63. The dollar was slightly lower. The VIX was higher coming out of the weekend, now back above 16. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to vol if we get no NFP on Friday due to a govt shutdown.

Notable Gainers: HOOD +11.4%, WDC +8.1%, COIN +6.6%, STX +5.4%, CSX Corp +4.9%, FCX +4.6% , EA +4.6%

Notable Losers: INTC -2.3%, QCOM -2.2%, AVGO +1.7%, CVX -2.6%, BA -2%, CCL -3.7%

After hours: SPY and QQQ both down a tick from the close.

• MRKT Call: Guy and Dan cover AI circular funding with a focus on NVDA, the weaker dollar versus inflation, the EA deal, and financials into earnings season. Carter joins to weigh in on the weaker dollar, crude and commodity impacts, treasury yields, and answers viewer questions.

• RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan recap last week’s economic data, discuss market dynamics from AI to NVDA and Intel, and preview Friday’s September payrolls and Nike’s upcoming earnings.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• S&P 500 ticks higher as AI leader Nvidia rebounds, EA surges on takeover (CNBC)

• Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets (CNBC)

• Labor Dept. won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, other data if government shuts down (CNBC)

• The Credit Market Is Humming—and That Has Wall Street On Edge (WSJ)

• Why Microsoft Has Lower Borrowing Costs Than the U.S. (WSJ)

• Debt Is Fueling the Next Wave of the AI Boom (WSJ)

• Etsy pops 15% as OpenAI announces ChatGPT Instant Checkout for the shopping site (CNBC)

• Anthropic Says New Model Can Code on Its Own for 30 Hours Straight (Bloomberg)

• EA going private in $55 billion deal that will pay shareholders $210 a share (CNBC)

• Cannabis stocks surge after Donald Trump highlights senior healthcare benefits (FT)

WHAT’S NEXT?

Implied volatility ticked up modestly out of the weekend despite stocks opening the week higher. That’s not super unusual, especially at current low levels — but is worth keeping an eye on ahead of the looming government shutdown (tomorrow into Wednesday) and Friday’s jobs report. Which would not be released if there’s a shutdown.

Big picture, traders remain very calm, showing neither fear of a sudden decline (not seeing a ton of put positioning) nor the same level of breakout optimism seen two weeks ago when IWM looked poised to surge (less upside call buying). Either scenario, a breakout or a multi day sell-off, is likely to take the VIX higher which in turn would expand market volatility bands.

This week brings several labor-related data points, beginning with tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings report before the open, and culminating with Friday’s NFP jobs number. Tomorrow also marks the end of the quarter, with the possibility of end-of-quarter marking in select stocks.

Additionally, large institutional SPX option positions are be rolled tomorrow. This positioning has heavily influenced the 6500 level, first as overhead supply, then more recently as support. Once these positions are rolled, new strikes above and below the current levels may open things up a bit for the market to make its next move. For tomorrow:

Tuesday, Sept 30th (consensus)

• Fed Speak: Jefferson, Goolsbee

• 9:45am - Chicago PMI (43)

• 10am - JOLTS Job Openings (7.1m)

• 10am - Consumer Confidence

• After-hours: NKE 7.5%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Nvidia Rebound Takes Markets Higher

Guy and Dan discuss circular funding in AI with focus on NVDA, the weaker dollar versus inflation, the EA deal, and the financial stocks heading into earnings season. Carter joins to provide his take on the dollar and a potential breakdown, the impact on crude and other commodities, and updates on treasury yields, while answering viewer questions.

• Analysis - NVDA, DXY, Crude, XLE, US10YY, TLT, COST, WMT, XLF, JPM, ORCL

• Your Questions Answered:

  • Alex Rifken - Is that Carter or Clark Kent?!

  • Gary Webb - CBW, At what level would you reconsider your 10Y directional call?

  • Clubber Lang - Thoughts on UPS? Ripe on the charts. Is it a value trap?

  • Millennial Market - $cost about to trigger a massive head and shoulders?

Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.

Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s latest episode: Strong GDP Isn’t Saving the Labor Market

In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, hosts Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss the upcoming September non-farm payrolls, as well as a look back at the PCE, and GDP data from last week. They analyze the inconsistency between accelerating GDP and slowing employment growth, touching on the potential impact of AI and reduced immigration. Then recent market dynamics, including bond yields, the AI trade, NVDA, recent government investments in Intel and the unusual valuation of TikTok. The episode wraps up with a look ahead at the upcoming earnings report from Nike.

Learn more about our sponsor CME Group, iConnections, and SoFi.

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