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A Nice Bounce But Late Day Selling Keeps Things Interesting
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, Nov 5th
RiskReversal Media
November 05, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks bounced nicely today with broad participation across most sectors and much better breadth than the past week. AMD did the opposite earnings reversal move from PLTR yesterday and that helped calm nerves in much of tech, but… the bounce wasn’t quite enough to get above the past week’s downtrend, and did kind of see some fairly steep late day selling. We’ll see how that plays into tomorrow morning’s open. Still a green day: SPX +0.4%, QQQ +0.7% and IWM +1.5%
Elsewhere, the big story was yields, which went higher on the ADP emplyment beat this morning, the US10YY is now 4.16%. Gold bounced a little and seems to be pinned around 4k for now. Oil is back below $60. BTC bounced a bit after being breifly below 100k, now just shy of 104k. The VIX was lower to 18.
Notable Gainers: STX +11.8%, MU +9.7%, AMGN +8.6%, UAL +7.3%, LUV +6.4%, WDC +6.3%, SBUX +4%, MCD +2.6%, JPM +1.1%, AMD +3%
Notable Losers: PINS -21%, HD -2.3%, MSFT -1.4%, PG -1%, WMT -0.6%, SMCI -11%,
After Hours Earnings Moves: SNAP +25%, QCOM -3%, HOOD -2%, IONQ +2.5%, APP +3%
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy break down the market’s rebound attempt, PLTR’s stretch versus NVDA, weakness in housing, looking for a bounce in energy, what the Fed’s next move could mean for yields, and are joined by Robinhood’s Michael Obucina to talk options (with and NVDA trade by Dan).
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan is joined by Brian Belski, CEO and CIO of Humilis Investment Strategies who shares his broader outlook for 2026.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow rises 300 points after Supreme Court doubts Trump tariff argument and AI trade recovers (CNBC)
Almost Half of U.S. Imports Now Have Steep Tariffs (NYT)
How China’s Chokehold on Drugs, Chips and More Threatens the U.S. (WSJ)
Deutsche Bank explores hedges for data centre exposure as AI lending booms (FT)
Op-ed: The fuel for the AI boom driving the markets is advertising. It is also an existential risk. (CNBC)
Private-Credit Earnings Ease Investor Concern Over Asset Class’s Health (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
One catalyst helping the rally today: rising odds that the Supreme Court could rule against executive authority on tariffs — a decision that, if it happens, could shake up inflation assumptions. On the data front today, ADP employment came in stronger than expected, reversing last month’s losses. The bond market seemed to take that one seriously, with the 10-year yield jumping and now up to around 4.15%, quietly climbing from 3.95% over the past two weeks. Odds of a December rate cut slipped on the news.
Volatility remains elevated — we’ve seen nearly a 2% range in SPY this week and close to 3% in QQQ. With most of the megacaps now through earnings, the market’s likely to start keying off macro data and AI trade vibes. The best-case setup for a year-end rally probably looks something like strong-but-not-too-hot employment paired with inflation expectations maybe helped along if tariff’s go away, either through a ruling or a White House pivot. We’ll see.
Tomorrow brings more employment data via Challenger, plus a lot of Fed member speak. Another potential catalyst in the near term: a resolution to the government shutdown. After last night’s elections, political pressure is likely building to get something done — and with Thanksgiving travel fast approaching, a shutdown gumming up airports would be a tough look.
Thursday, Nov 6th
Pre-market: MRNA 8%
After-hours: TTD 15.5%, OPEN 14%, DKNG 9%
SPX expected move: 0.6%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Stocks Rebound From Tuesday's AI Rout
Dan and Guy break down yesterday’s sell-off and today’s rebound attempt. A post mortem on Palantir’s earnings reaction and how a stock like that differs from an Nvidia. They also touch on energy names before turning to TREX’s move lower and what it signals for housing and homebuilders. Then, changing odds on the Fed’s December decision and what it could mean for yields, and the banks. Finally, Michael Obucina of Robinhood joins to discuss options activity, implied volatility, and Dan looks at a potential NVDA put calendar into earnings.
Robinhood Live Trade - NVDA put calendar
Analysis - SPX, QQQ, PLTR, MU, STX, CRM, HAL, XLE, TREX, TOL, XHB, PHM, HD, WHR, BAC, NVDA, S&P e-mini
Learn more about our sponsor, Robinhood.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: How Brian Belski Will Manage Risk In 2026
In the latest episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, Dan is joined by Brian Belski, CEO and CIO of Humilis Investment Strategies. Belski discusses his decision to leave BMO after 35 years to start his own firm focusing on equities and portfolio advisory services. The conversation covers Belski's investment insights, including his emphasis on dividend growth and value investing, and his bullish outlook on sectors such as financials, small-mid caps, and industrials. They also delve into the current state of the market, the potential impact of Fed policies, and the concentration of market performance driven by big tech and AI. Belski shares his broader outlook for 2026, predicting a normalization of returns and highlighting the importance of diversification and earning growth.
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
