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A Quiet Monday as SPX Pauses at 6000
RiskReversal Recap: June 9, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 09, 2025
MARKET WRAP
An extremely quiet start to the week with SPX holding the 6000 level and finishing with a slight gain, but unable to break free to the upside. It was quiet elsewhere as well, with treasuries, gold and the dollar all with small moves. On the day, SPX +0.1%, QQQ +0.2% and IWM +0.6%. The US10YY pulled back slightly to 4.48%, DXY was slightly lower, now at $99, Gold was quiet, but Oil continues higher, now above $65.
Traders continue to price extremely low volatility into mid week’s CPI/PPI with a slight uptick after. The VIX closed today slightly higher, at 17.10.
After hours: Both SPY and QQQ are very slightly lower following the close. The earnings calendar is fairly quiet until later in the week.
MRKT Call: Carter joins the show to talk technicals and how the current market levels and valuations compare to when we were at Feb highs, or April lows and where each sector fits in the current narrative.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy dive into US-China trade meetings, the possible economic slowdown, and the ongoing tax bill debates. They also talk Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi event, and Apple’s WWDC.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks rise as Wall Street awaits details from U.S.-China trade talks (CNBC)
US, China to Resume Trade Talks With Focus on Rare Earths (Bloomberg)
GOP Senators’ Competing Demands Risk Pulling Trump Megabill Apart (WSJ)
Trump, CEOs promote savings plans for newborns (CNBC)
Nvidia CEO says the UK is in a ‘Goldilocks’ moment: ‘I’m going to invest here’ (CNBC)
Apple to open its AI models to app builders (Axios)
Apple Researchers Just Released a Damning Paper That Pours Water on the Entire AI Industry (Futurism)
Warner Bros. Plans to Split Streaming, Cable TV Businesses (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
As expected by traders, a pretty quiet Monday following what had been a fairly atypically slow news weekend. SPX was able to close above the 6000 level once again which and that will remain an important hold if it wants to make that push to all time highs. But today, 6000 once again appeared to act as a magnet into the close. The market’s upward drift lately has underscored the persistent underlying bid—where absent negative catalysts, buying remain the default setting, but as mentioned as we approached this level, this area has significant overhead supply.
Today got a slight boost from headlines that U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting in person in London for trade discussions. While no concrete outcomes have emerged yet, the fact that talks are happening at all was seen as a positive shift from the recent stalemate. Elsewhere, Apple (AAPL) hosted its WWDC developer event, with shares finishing slightly lower after the keynote. The company unveiled a slew of updates, but nothing that sparked immediate excitement among investors.
Looking ahead, Tuesday’s calendar is relatively quiet, but that changes on Wednesday with the release of the May CPI report—a key inflation print that could set the tone for treasuries and the Fed into the Summer.
For the rest of the week, implied volatility remains extremely low, with traders pricing 6000 to act as a magnet for now. That may change into Wednesday morning as CPI/PPI approaches but we may not see any signs of that until late tomorrow. As of now: SPX Expected Move into Friday’s Close: 1.3% which is extremely low expectations for potential market movement.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Taking stock of S&P 500 Sectors
SPX 6000 and what the market cares (or should care about) about into CPI/PPI and what reaction the treasury market may have. Carter joins the show to talk technicals and how the current market levels and valuations compare to when we were at Feb highs, or April lows and where each sector fits in the current narrative.
Analysis: SPX, US10YY, UNH, BA, SOXX, SLV, QCOM, KRE, TSLA, AAPL
Call of the Day: MCD downgraded at Morgan Stanley
Your Questions Answered:
Thoughts on UNH chart?
BA more room to run? Hold?
Thoughts for SLV upside from here?
Why is TSLA bouncing?
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Complacency Lingers in S&P 500
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami delve into US-China trade meetings, the economic slowdown, and the implications of the ongoing tax bill debates. They address the impact of high-profile market voices, such as Jamie Dimon and Paul Tudor Jones, who have raised concerns about market complacency. Discussions also touch on the volatility in the options market, Tesla's Robotaxi event, and the expectations for Apple’s product announcements. The episode closes with a focus on how market participants should navigate these numerous uncertainties.
