MARKET WRAP

A fairly uneventful day for the major indices as both the SPX and Nasdaq closed the day near unchanged. Part of that may have been monthly expiration related and those dynamics will change into Monday’s trading. For the day, SPX +0.1%, QQQ +0.0% and IWM +0.9%. The Dow was down mostly on the back of UNH’s big move lower on quarterly results.

After the bell, NFLX reported an earnings beat that has the stock up about 4.5% in the after hours. Elsewhere, fairly quiet in treasuries with the 10Y yield up slightly to 4.33% Oil gained, up nearly 3%. Gold pulled back slightly from record highs. The dollar index DXY was unchanged on the day.

• MRKT Call: UNH and LLY’s big moves, the threat to fire Chair Powell, Tesla and Elon, retailers potentially seeing a pull forward ahead of tariffs and equities historical performace following a bad first 4 months of a year.

• RiskReversal Pod: Jeff Richards of Notable Capital joins Dan to discuss why AI and small business tech are long-term growth areas, the challenges facing IPOs and M&A, and why much of today’s innovation is happening in private markets. 

MRKT MATRIX: April 17, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 rises as investors attempt a rebound; Dow drops 500 points on UnitedHealth plunge (CNBC)

• ECB Cuts Interest Rates to Counter Threat From Trump Tariffs (WSJ)

• Trump Berates Fed’s Powell, Urges ‘Termination’ for Slowness (Bloomberg)

• IMF Says Global Economy Slowing on Trade ‘Reboot’ But Avoiding Recession (Bloomberg)

• Google holds illegal monopolies in ad tech, US judge finds (CNBC)

• TSMC Projects Confidence Even as Trump Hits Global Tech (Bloomberg)

• UBS cuts price targets on two semiconductor giants on U.S. government China export restrictions (CNBC)

• UnitedHealth Plunges After Cutting Outlook on Care Costs (Bloomberg)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by SoFi

S&P 500 Enters The Dreaded Death Cross

Coverage of UNH’s move lower on earnings vs LLY’s spike higher today and the chance for large single stock moves with a 30 VIX. Discussions of the threat to fire Powell and how May 7th/8th could see fireworks. Tesla stock and what a return by Elon would mean vs the challenges the business currently faces. And a look at retail sales and how much of recent numbers are a pull forward by consumers getting ahead of tariff price increases. 

• Chart of the Day 1: Sofi: Historical yearly performance of SPX after poor first 4 months

• Chart of the Day 2: Sofi: Divergence between the dollar and yields

• Chart of the Day 3: Sofi: Treasury yield reactions to CPI surprises

• Call of the Day: Keybanc downgrades MSFT

• Analysis: SPX, US10YY, UNH, LLY, TSLA, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, AXP, TGT, NKE, COST

• Your Questions Answered: 

  • Thoughts on TSLA?

  • Why do we talk about the benefits of lower rates w/o talking about how it hurts savers?
    

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Betterment and RBC

Navigating Market Volatility: Jeff Richards on AI, Tech Stocks & Private Markets

Jeff Richards of Notable Capital joins Dan Nathan to break down today’s market volatility, the impact of trade policy and tech sector uncertainty, and how private company founders are navigating this choppy environment. They discuss why AI and small business tech are long-term growth areas, the challenges facing IPOs and M&A, and why much of today’s innovation is happening in private markets. Richards highlights cybersecurity and alternative asset managers as strong sectors, and predicts a bumpy 2025 but major long-term opportunities as AI adoption accelerates.

Timecodes:

• 0:00 How uncertainty impacts public & private markets

• 10:30 Concentration in the S&P 500

• 14:30 Hiring/Employment

• 17:45 AI adoption

• 22:40 Why mega-cap tech companies are losing the AI race

• 27:30 Google/Wiz deal

• 30:30 Mag 7 buying opportunities

• 37:00 What’s on Jeff’s buy list (cybersecurity, alt managers)

What’s Next?

Today’s lack of volatility capped a fairly uneventful week for the major indices (compared to recent weeks). On the week the SPX pulled back slightly from last week’s rally, but traded within a 4% range (again, historically that’s a big range! But not so much following weeks of 5% daily moves).

Some of this week’s slowdown in market swings can be attributed to a bit of a breather following tariff deadlines and delays of the past two weeks and a fairly stable week for yields and the dollar, but some can also be attributed to a monthly expiration with a lot of quickly decaying options bought during the chaos of the prior few weeks at much higher volatilities. That dynamic will clear into next week’s trading.

Additionally, we have started to see more idiosyncratic moves amongst individual tickers, outside of the day to day market swings. Expect that dynamic to pick up over the next two weeks.

We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of next week’s economic events, earnings reports and how the market backdrop may aid in upcoming moves. Check your email Sunday and have a great long weekend and Happy Easter and Passover!

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