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A Slight Fade Ahead of Tomorrow's Catalysts
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, July 29th
RiskReversal Media
July 29, 2025
MARKET WRAP
For the second day in a row, stocks opened with a gap higher—only to fade throughout the session, this time closing red across all the major indices. The S&P 500 now sits just below all-time highs into an important stretch of potential catalysts the rest of the week. On the day: SPX -0.3%, QQQ -0.2%, and IWM -0.6%.
Elsewhere, volatility picked up in some other assets, as Oil was sharply higher on a couple of stories, the US10YY moved lower, now 4.32% while the dollar continued its recent bounce, with DXY just shy of $99.
After hours: SBUX is higher by about +5%, V is lower by about -3% following earnings.
MRKT Call: Dan and Guy check in on the rally and another faded gap higher A look at comparisons to prior bubbles. Discussion on some of the earnings gaps lower we’ve seen, particularly in the consumer facing stocks. Dan makes a couple of options trades live.
RiskReversal Pod: Peter Boockvar joins Dan for a Tuesday edition of the RiskReversal Podcast to discuss the latest trade deal news, the effective Tariff math from those deals (and who bears the brunt of that) and what’s next for global growth.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 retreats from record as comeback rally pauses before Fed decision (CNBC)
Trump’s New Trade Order Is Fragile (WSJ)
China lays out its AI vision in foil to Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ plan (Financial Times)
Nvidia orders 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC due to robust China demand, sources say (Reuters)
Apple to Shutter a Retail Store in China for the First Time Ever (Bloomberg)
The Driver of Apple’s Exploding Valuation Is Under Threat. See What’s at Stake. (WSJ)
Microsoft’s Access to OpenAI Tech Is Focus of Contract Talks (Bloomberg)
Waymo taps Avis to manage robotaxi fleet in Dallas (TechCrunch)
Union Pacific to Buy Norfolk Southern in $85 Billion Deal (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The intraday fades over the past two sessions don’t offer a strong directional signal just yet. The most likely read is it’s just a bit of caution, with traders hesitant to chase opening gaps higher ahead of a jam-packed stretch of catalysts. It's not unusual to see markets pause near highs before events, and that may be all we're witnessing for now.
That said, some degree of buyer fatigue is natural after a strong run. Reversals like the one we saw in NVDA today are a reminder of just how far some stocks have run. Whether it is a sign of some fatigue will be dependent on the news over the next few sessions. But either way, this may be a good time to reassess portfolio exposure on stocks that have had parabolic runs, especially into earnings.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we say a slight pickup in near-term volatility today. SPX options are pricing in about a 0.6% expected move for tomorrow—still moderate, but higher than recent daily expectations (but a bit lower than what we typically see on FOMC days). More notable, the expected move into Friday is around 1.2%, which nearly matches the full-week pricing we saw coming into Monday (as if the past two days didn’t happen). As we noted in Sunday’s preview, traders were pricing very little movement for the front half of the week, with implied volatility likely to tick higher into Wednesday. That busy stretch of potential market catalysts begins tomorrow:
Wednesday, July 30th
Pre-market: ETSY 10.5%
8:15am - ADP Employment
8:30am - GDP
2pm - FOMC Rate Decision
2:30pm - Powell Presser
After-hours: META 5.7%, MSFT 3.7%, QCOM 5.8%, CVNA 12%, F 5.5%, HOOD 9.3%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: It's Not Different This Time
Dan and Guy check in on the rally and another faded gap higher A look at comparisons to prior bubbles. Discussion on some of the earnings gaps lower we’ve seen, particularly in the consumer facing stocks. Dan makes a couple of options trades live.
Analysis - SPX, WHR, SOFI, BA, NVO, SPOT, NVDA, AAPL, UPS
Rosenberg Report - Equities are surging despite +1% growth.
Live Trading Robinhood - NVDA Aug 170 puts, AAPL Collar
Your Questions
Akira Suzuki - SOFI is up while PYPL is down. Thoughts on the fintech space. Thanks.
Lee Jay - You two scallywags have any thoughts on UPS? My god what a disaster.
Jake Grove - any thoughts on the real estate market.? is the 18 year cycle b.s. thanks guys
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Peter Boockvar: Markets Are Flying In Rarefied Air
Peter Boockvar of OnePoint BFG Wealth Management joins Dan for a Tuesday edition of the RiskReversal Podcast to discuss the latest trade deal news, the effective Tariff math from those deals (and who bears the brunt of that) and what’s next for global growth.
Subscribe to The Boock Report: https://peterboockvar.substack.com/
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