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RiskReversal Recap: Monday, Oct 13th
RiskReversal Media
October 13, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks regained a good portion of Friday’s sharp losses, particularly small caps and tech (lead by AVGO). Implied volatility eased, though not fully. Investors are hoping Friday’s sell-off proves to be a brief scare but not enough to just rip back to the highs, crypto especially. On the day: SPX +1.6%, QQQ +2.2% and IWM +2.8%.
Elsewhere, the bond market was closed so we didn’t get to see its reaction in full, though TLT was down this morning, then rose throughout the day to finishing unched. Gold remains the big story, ripping higher again today and at new highs once again. The other big story Friday was the move in BTC. It did most of its recovery over the weekend, and has filled in about half of Friday gap lower. Oil bounced a tad. DXY was slightly higher, back to $99.29. The VIX was lower, but showed some scar tissue left over from Friday’s sell-off (and into earnings), closing today at 19.
Notable Gainers: AVGO +10%, ON +10%, BBY +9.8%, MPWR +8.6%, AMR +11%, TSLA +5.1%, ROST +5%
Notable Losers: FAST -7%, PG -1.6%, LVS -6.4%, WYNN -6%, ANET -4.2%, TMUS -1.9%
After hours: SPY and QQQ are quite after hours considering their big moves today.
MRKT Call: Dan and Guy break down today’s TACO bounce and consider whether Friday’s sell-off had causes beyond the headlines. They also discuss AVGO’s news, MSFT and ORCL ahead of earnings, continued weakness in SaaS names, and the outlook for big banks as they prepare to report.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy Adami and Danny Moses on the dot-com bubble and 2008 crisis, vs today’s AI-driven hype, overvalued companies. Also, a weakening U.S. dollar and central bank moves toward gold, the fragility of the yen, value opportunities in healthcare and energy.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Gold breaks $4,100 to hit high on trade jitters, rate-cut optimism (CNBC)
Silver Prices Just Hit Their First Record Since 1980 (WSJ)
OpenAI, Broadcom Forge Multibillion-Dollar Chip-Development Deal (WSJ)
Quantum stocks surge after JPMorgan investing push into strategic tech
Veteran Stockpicker Sees Risks for AI, Big Tech. Why It Could Be Worse Than the Dot-Com Bust. (Barron’s)
S&P 500 Financials Sector Earnings Preview: Q3 2025 (FactSet)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Alongside today’s equity rebound, implied volatility came in sharply, but much like the price action, it didn’t fully reset. The optimism behind today’s bounce rests largely on the hope that Friday’s tariff-driven sell-off was a one-day scare. Still, Friday’s action served as a stark reminder of just how exposed — and in many cases, leveraged — positioning had become amid the complacency of record highs. That includes equities, and even more so, crypto positioning
In many ways, brief shocks can be healthy before the next leg higher. The question now is whether this rebound evolves into an immediate squeeze back toward Friday morning’s highs as traders rush to reestablish positions they exited in panic. That action would be less healthy, but still real. The slight persistence of elevated implied volatility today seems appropriate given that earnings season is about to begin. Friday’s jump in vol is likely to have some staying power, and a return to single-digit short-duration SPX volatility looks unlikely anytime soon (we’re likely to see 0.6% SPX expected moves rather than 0.4%). That also means traders should be prepared for wider day-to-day and week-to-week swings in the indices — and, with earnings kicking off, even bigger moves under the surface in individual names.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, Powell will garner the most attention on the economic front with an appearance mid day in Philly. On the earnings front, JPM, C, WFC, GS and more. As mentioned in yesterday’s note, the expected moves that options were pricing for these earnings were super inflated into Friday’s close with the VIX near 22, and now with the VIX closer to 18, JPM has gone from a 4.7% expected move to a 3.8%. Still higher than aberage but much less than Friday’s pricing. BTW, the expected move in SPX for tomorrow is about 0.6%, down from over 1% move pricing for today:
Tuesday, October 14th
Pre-market: JPM 3.8%, C 5.2%, WFC 4.3%, GS 4%, BLK 3.4%, JNJ 3.1%
Fed Speak: Bowman, Powell 12:20pm , Waller
IMF Meeting Begins
SPX expected move: 0.6%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: TACO Monday, Will the Bounce Hold?
Dan and Guy break down today’s TACO bounce and consider whether Friday’s sell-off had causes beyond the headlines. They also discuss AVGO’s news, MSFT and ORCL ahead of earnings, continued weakness in SaaS names, and the outlook for big banks as they prepare to report.
Analysis - SPX, BTC, COIN, TOL, AVGO, MSFT, META, ADBE, CRM, COIN, HOOD, SMH, JPM, C, BAC, GS, UAL, MSTR, FXI, KWEB, Crude
Your Questions
Adam Beauregard - In the spirit of Christmas, can we talk about Silver and Gold.
Dcgonz1 - Is there something to be gleaned from today’s bounce not yet overtaking a 50% retracement on the big red candle from Friday?
Dino - Can you go over RGTI, BE, OKLO etc
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Seismic Shifts Beneath Market Highs
Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss parallels between the current market the late '90s dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. They highlight AI’s and resemblance to the internet boom, with concerns over vendor financing and unsustainable company valuations. The conversation shifts to the potential impact of a weakening U.S. dollar and the role of gold, as central banks accumulate it to hedge against economic instability. They also touch on the fragility of the Japanese yen and its economic implications. Passive investing's influence on market behavior is examined, and the potential for sectors like healthcare and energy to offer value. Finally, current trends in sports gambling markets and NFL predictions.
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