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A Tepid Bounce to End a Bad Week
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, Nov 21st
RiskReversal Media
November 21, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Today was another wild ride—an early test of nerves to the downside, followed by a sharp midday rebound that had the SPX up nearly +2%… then more weakness into the close to keep things interesting into the weekend. On the day: SPX +1%, QQQ +0.8% and IWM +2.8%.
Keep an eye on IWM, small caps were a canary in the coal mine when yields started to rise and equity momentum started breaking last month. It reacted the most to today’s shift in rate cut odds.
Speaking of yields, the US10YY is now just below 4.07%, down from 4.15% early yesterday. It got as low as 4.05% today. Gold quiet once again, but oil was lower, now $58. BTC ended a brutal week with a little bounce of its low of $81k today, now $85k. It remains about -30% off its October highs but that’s better than the -35% this morning. The VIX was above 27 this morning, but closes the week 23.50.
After Hours: Both SPY and QQQ sold off into the close but both are a touch higher after hours.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy talk with Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital about rising market jitters—from AI spending and stretched valuations to delayed Fed cuts, consumer trends, and geopolitical risks—and what all of it means for investor sentiment and the road ahead.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow surges 500 points in big market rebound after steep sell-off this week (CNBC)
S&P 500 Reporting Highest Revenue Growth in 3 Years (FactSet)
One Fed official may have saved market from another rout. Why John Williams’ remarks matter so much (CNBC)
Fed won’t get key inflation data before next rate decision as BLS cancels October CPI release (CNBC)
Altman Memo Forecasts ‘Rough Vibes’ Due to Resurgent Google (The Information)
Google must double AI compute every 6 months to meet demand, AI infrastructure boss tells employees (CNBC)
The DoorDash Problem: How AI browsers are a huge threat to Amazon (The Verge)
Visa and Mastercard Are Moving Fast Into Stablecoins (The Information)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
For the week, “volatile” doesn’t really do it justice. We saw a roughly 4% SPX trading range, multiple intraday reversals that shook out both longs and shorts, and a VIX that came within a whisper of 30. Big picture, the SPX is only about -4% off its recent all-time highs, but with so much momentum unwound over the past few weeks, the sell-off has felt much deeper.
Today there were some attempts to get off the lows but the close was somewhat ugly considering what had transpired from a good news standpoint during the session. The first major catalyst was a dramatic swing in December rate-cut odds after some dovish commentary from NY Fed’s John Williams. That essentially round-tripped the entire two-week saga in Dec rate cut odds: from 75%, down to ~30% just days ago, and now back above 70%.
The second catalyst hit mid-day with reports that NVDA may be able to sell H200 chips to China, which sent the stock ripping higher and pulled the indices with it. Still, there was a notable lack of full-throated enthusiasm across the Mag7+. NVDA closed well off its highs and in fact went red into the close, while stocks like MSFT and AVGO barely participated in the first place. It’s hard to argue that sentiment and momentum in these leaders have fully reset when only GOOGL and AMZN saw notable moves to the upside today.
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, Monday seems crucial now with how stocks closed today. If we see a follow through to the upside on Monday that actually holds, next week’s shortened holiday trading could calm things down, with alot of the option positioning of the past two weeks now expired. However, new lows on Monday would put us right back in the spin cycle.
The VIX may be a tell next week: An early week rally that holds, we could see the VIX slide back below 20, which would help stabilize things. A new low for SPX on Monday likely means a lot of expired puts get re-bought, keeping volatility going for the foreseeable future and a VIX in the mid to upper 20’s the new norm.
We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of next week’s catalysts.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Can Retail Be Smarter Than Wall Street?
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital. They discuss a range of topics including market volatility, AI investment trends, consumer spending patterns, and economic forecasts. Calvasina highlights the increasing nervousness among investors regarding high valuations and the potential impact of delayed Fed rate cuts. She notes the importance of monitoring CapEx and regulatory changes, especially as they pertain to AI and tech sectors. The conversation touches on geopolitical dynamics with China and the upcoming US midterm elections, emphasizing their potential market implications. The session is rich with insights into the current market climate, investor sentiment, and future economic expectations.
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