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Stocks Close Lower But Amazon and Apple to the Rescue After-Hours.
RiskReversal Recap: October 30, 2025
RiskReversal Media
October 30, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks pulled back today with a bit of a risk-off vibe in megacap tech (and not a terribly great close). It wasn’t a panic day, but one of disappointment in events over the past 24 hours, including Powell, China, and META earnings. That sour mood could be temporary given AMZN (+11% after-hours ) and AAPL (+3%). On the day: SPX -1%, QQQ -1.5% and IWM -0.8%.
Treasury yields continued higher today, and as Liz pointed out on MRKT Call, it’s not just the front-end repricing December as longer term yields are higher as well. The US10YY is now 4.09%. Bitcoin can’t seem to catch a bounce, now $107k. Gold with a little bounce, back above $4k, Oil was quiet, the dollar was higher again, with DXY now $99.50.
Notable Gainers: MRNA +15%, MELI +4%, GOOGL +3%, CSCO +2.2%, CRM +2.3%, DIS +1.5%, JPM +1.3%, JNJ +1.3%
Notable Losers: CMG -17.5%, EBAY -15%, META -11.3%, MSFT -3%, MO -7.6%, FI -7%, ORCL -6.4%,
After Hours: AMZN is +10%, AAPL was lower by about -3% but has bounced a bit, now +3%. COIN is +1%. MSTR +2.5%. ROKU is -6%. Conference Calls to come. QQQ is +0.9% and SPY +0.6% on AMZN and AAPL.
Today’s MRKT Call: Liz and Dan break down this week’s market movers, highlighting the FOMC dissents, Powell’s deliberate cooling of future rate cut expectations, and the resulting moves in equities and Treasuries.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan sit down with Mike Wilson to unpack the current market landscape, covering Fed rate cuts, US-China dynamics, Nvidia’s role, economic rebalancing, sector outlooks, risks of the AI trade and potential corrections.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks drop, Nasdaq hit hard as Big Tech leaders Meta and Microsoft decline after earnings (CNBC)
Meta stock drops 10% as heightened AI spending overshadows strong third-quarter results (CNBC)
Meta readies $25bn bond sale as soaring AI costs trigger stock sell-off (FT)
Alphabet stock jumps after posting strong results, boosting AI spend (CNBC)
Microsoft takes $3.1 billion hit from OpenAI investment (CNBC)
Chipotle stock craters as Wall Street grows concerned after company cuts forecast (CNBC)
Oracle Bond Risk Jumps on Concerns Over AI Spending Spree (Bloomberg)
Goldman CEO Says US Heading for Debt ‘Reckoning’ If Growth Flags (Bloomberg)
U.S.-China Truce Brings Little Peace for Businesses Caught in Superpower Standoff (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Today’s action seemed mostly driven by some earnings drops early, led by META, but the mood stayed sour into the close. The U.S.–China talks made some headlines, but nothing close to an actual deal, so that didn’t help. The market was also still digesting yesterday’s odds shift for a December rate cut — now around 70%, down from 90% going into the FOMC.
After the bell, Amazon’s move may be enough to save the week, we should gap higher on tomorrow’s open. How investors react after that is yet to be determined. Vol was mostly soft early on, but ticked higher late in the session as equities faded. If we get a green Friday on the heels of AMZN and AAPL, vol could get crushed into the weekend. But if the market can’t hold that opening gap, vol may get re-bid intraday.
Tomorrow we get Exxon before the open, but for now most of this week’s events are in the rear view mirror and we should get a decent sentiment check in the first hour or so.
Friday
Pre-market: XOM 2.0%, CVX 2.3%, ABBV 3.6%
9:45am: Chicago PMI
11:45am: Fed Hammack Speech
SPX expected move: 0.7%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: The Fed's Cut and Runoff Strategy
Liz and Dan talk this week’s events and what is likely to have the biggest impact on the market (and what they would have guessed going in). A discussion on the dissents in the FOMC statement yesterday and Powell’s purposeful dialing down of future cut expectations, plus the reaction in both equities and treasuries.
Analysis - SPX, META, GOOGL, MSFT, DXY, GLD, BTC, NVDA, KRE,
SoFi Weekly Report - The FOMC Cut, and how treasuries are reacting short term vs longer.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Mike Wilson On The Fed's Latest Rate Cut and What's Next In 2026
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Mike Wilson, CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. They discuss the complexities of the current market landscape, including key topics such as the impact of the Fed's recent rate cuts, the significance of US-China relations, and the importance of Nvidia in the market. The conversation also delves into the broader economic strategies being employed, including deregulation, the rebalancing of the economy, and the implications of small business growth. Mike shares his thoughts on potential inflation, wage growth, and the future of energy and healthcare sectors. The discussion highlights indicators of potential market corrections, the risks associated with AI investment, and the evolving nature of financial markets.
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
