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Another Choppy Day But Week Ends on New Highs
RiskReversal Recap: Friday, October 3rd
RiskReversal Media
October 03, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks saw another choppy session with what initially looked like a decisive breakout to new highs in the morning—particularly in small caps. But by midday, sellers stepped in, perhaps using rate cut caution comments from Dallas Fed Pres Logan as a reason to take some profits. Still, SPX added about +1.1% on the week to close at a new high. The Nasdaq was lower on the day while small caps and industrials were higher. On the day: SPX +0.0%, QQQ -0.4% and IWM +0.7%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY was up slightly today to 4.12%. The dollar and oil were both quiet. Gold’s “selloff” didn’t last long with a move today back towards all time highs. The VIX closed the week 16.65 up from 15.25 last Friday.
Notable Gainers: SHOP +6.7%, BIOD +3.1%, FANG +3.1%, HUM +10.8%, CMG +3.7%, MU +2.3%, F +3.5%
Notable Losers: PLTR -7%, LVS -7%, DELL -4.6%, NKE -3.3%, AMD -3%, JBL -6.5%
After hours: SPY and QQQ a tick lower after hours.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy welcome Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth to discuss shifting market positioning since April, institutional behavior, liquidity trends, valuations, AI’s impact on earnings, mega-cap tech, consumer dynamics, 2026 market outlooks, and alternative investments such as infrastructure and litigation finance.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 posts winning week, but Friday rally fizzles (CNBC)
S&P 500 track record the rest of the year is nearly flawless when it’s up this much through September (CNBC)
Goldman boss David Solomon warns of a stock market drawdown: ‘People won’t feel good’ (CNBC)
US Services Gauge Falls on Weakest Business Activity Since 2020 (Bloomberg)
Fed’s Miran Says He’d Adjust Inflation View If Rents Turn Higher (Bloomberg)
Jim Chanos slams ‘magical machine’ of private credit after First Brands collapse (FT)
Apple Drops ICE-Tracking Apps From App Store(WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week That Was
For the week, equities were strong overall, essentially shrugging off the ongoing government shutdown (and the sudden lack of official govt economic data like today’s NFP) to gain roughly +1.1% and establish new all-time highs. A key tailwind was a retreat in Treasury yields, which have now reversed about half of their post-FOMC bounce. That helped renew some momentum in small caps, with IWM rallying nearly +2% on the week and returning to the edge of breakout territory. A confirmed move higher there could add yet another dose of euphoria to an already giddy market.
Interestingly, the VIX has been rising a bit alongside equities—often a signal of increasing speculative appetite driven by heavy upside call buying in smaller, more volatile names.
Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, the timing of the government shutdown’s resolution remains uncertain, putting even more weight on the upcoming earnings season to guide market sentiment. The banks kick things off, with JPMorgan set to report on October 14th alongside other major financials. The mega-cap tech names are concentrated in the final week of October and first week of November, with Microsoft and Meta reporting on October 29th, and Nvidia rounding things out on November 19th. We’ll revisit those names an more as they approach. And check your inbox on Sunday for a preview of next week’s catalysts.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s latest episode: AI Has the Economy on a String: Will Growth Snap?
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth, recently ranked as the third top RIA in the U.S. by Barron's. The conversation delves into market positioning changes since April, the impact of institutional investor behavior, and liquidity trends. They also explore valuation concerns, the influence of AI on corporate earnings, and future growth potential. The discussion touches on the performance and strategies of major tech companies, consumer economic impacts, and market predictions for 2026. Additionally, they consider alternative investment opportunities like infrastructure and litigation finance, highlighting their relevance in current client portfolios
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