MARKET WRAP

The day kicked off with a complicated setup. After the Fed yesterday, odds of near-term rate cuts dropped and stocks sold off. But Microsoft and Meta earnings all but guaranteed a gap higher this morning, even after a slightly hotter PCE print this morning. While META was able to hold its gains, the market did not, with all the major indices closing in the red. On the Day: SPX -0.4%, QQQ -0.6% and IWM -1.0%

Elsewhere, yields were pretty quiet with the US10YY 4.37%, Oil pulled back slightly. DXY was higher, now above $100 and +3% from late June. The VIX spiked a bit, now back to 16.75.

After hours: AMZN is lower by about -3%, they beat estimates. AAPL is higher by
+2%. Both moves are well within what the market was pricing. Conference calls to follow. QQQ is down a tick.

• MRKT Call: Guy and Dan discuss today’s moves in MSFT and META and the intraday reversal from morning highs in the market.

• RiskReversal Pod: Danny Moses joins Dan to discuss the Fed meeting and market reaction, including Fed Fund futures and the spike in the dollar. Also, earnings season and some of the moves we’ve been seeing. Then, special guest Phil Snow of FactSet.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• S&P 500 posts third straight losing day as Meta, Microsoft fail to lift market (CNBC)

• Key US Inflation Gauge Picks Up on Goods, Spending Barely Rises (Bloomberg)

• Powell’s Gamble: That the Economy Will Reveal Its True Self in the Next Two Months (WSJ)

• Trump and Dimon Are Talking Again After Yearslong Rift (WSJ)

• Trump’s tariff deadline is near. Here’s a look at countries that have a deal - and those that don’t (CNBC)

• GOP senators reject Trump’s pitch to use tariff revenue for ‘rebates’ (MSN)

• Microsoft Just Became the World’s Second $4 Trillion Company (WSJ)

• China’s Cybersecurity Regulator Summons Nvidia Over Chip-Security Issue (WSJ)

WHAT’S NEXT?

While META was able to hold its earnings gains, MSFT gave up a good chunk, and following the green open, we faded into the red overall. This has been a theme all week, higher opens running into sellers. While this isn’t necessarily a shift in the overall market trend, It looks like a rally beginning to show some buyer fatigue. Big picture though, we’re still hovering near all-time highs, and outside of some ugly post-earnings moves, there’s not a ton of concern. Still, the recent action is a reminder of how long its been since we’ve had even a tiny bit of fear.

Given the action so far this week tomorrow’s “all important” Jobs Number takes on a little added significance for the indices. The SPX has already traded in a 1.5% range this week and bounced between both ends a few times. Options are pricing in about a 0.8% move tomorrow—the biggest daily move implied all week and nearly double the dialy move pricing at the beginning of this week. That implies a potential range of 6280 to 6400. For tomorrow:

• Friday, August 1st

  • Pre-market: XOM 2%, CVX 2.2%

  • 8:30am - NFP Jobs Number (Consensus: 115,000 / 4.2%)

  • 10am - ISM Manufacturing (49.5)

  • 10am - Consumer Sentiment (62)

• Expected Moves:

  • SPX: 0.8% (6280-6400)

  • QQQ: 1%

  • TLT: 0.8%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Microsoft Joins The $4 Trillion Club

Guy and Dan discuss today’s moves in MSFT and META and the market reversal from the gap higher.

• Analysis - SPX, QQQ, MSFT, META, EBAY, ORCL, CRWV, Yen, US10YY, LRCX, ARM, QCOM, INTC, TSM, SHAK, AAPL, AMZN, 

• SoFi Weekly Blog: A Fed Divided, GDP Growth vs slowing Private Domestic Demand

• Your Questions:

  • Chris L - Is the Yen sneakily making a move without anyone pointing it out?

  • Gary Webb - Guy, Do you believe that the Yen will continue to weaken against the dollar? Their bond market is no bueno!

  • Gregory C - @RiskReversal Media can you guys address some specific stocks like LRCX and ARMGary Webb - Are you buying the weakness in FCX?

Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.

Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Powell Will Not Be Bullied + FactSet CEO Phil Snow on AI, Legacy & Leadership

Danny Moses joins Dan to discuss the Fed meeting and market reaction, including Fed Fund futures and the spike in the dollar. Also, earnings season and some of the moves we’ve been seeing.

Then Dan & Guy host Phil Snow, CEO of ⁠FactSet discussing the company's growth, the integration of valuable data sets, its strategic acquisitions and its competition with Bloomberg. As he prepares to step down, Phil discusses the transition to new CEO Sanoke Viswanathan and the continued importance of maintaining FactSet's client-centric and innovative ethos.

Learn more about our sponsor SoFi.

Generation Money: The TRUTH About College Tuition in 2025

Law school student Norman gets real with RiskReversalMedia's Dan Nathan and Guy Adami about the financial pressures behind higher education from skyrocketing tuition to juggling jobs while supporting retired parents. In this episode, we talk about the hidden costs of college, the mental math behind student debt, how to find scholarships that no one tells you about, and the make-or-break role of mentorship. Norman opens up about his side hustles, his long-term mindset, and how AI is changing the research game. If you've ever wondered how today’s students actually make it work, this one’s for you.

New episodes of Generation Money drop weekly—subscribe and follow for more stories on money, grit, and building your future.

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