MARKET WRAP

Not that anyone is super nostalgic for the volatility of the past few weeks but the first two days of this week have reset to relative calm. For the day: SPX -0.2%, QQQ +0.2% and IWM +0.1%. Not a ton of movement elsewhere with the US10Y yield down a tad to 4.34%, oil unchanged and Gold ticking slightly higher. The VIX was quiet today and continues to hover near 30. There are a couple of structural events for the market over the next few days that could re-introduce some volatility into next week (discussed at the bottom of the email.)

• RiskReversal Pod: Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth joins the pod with her 2025 market outlook, the risks of multiple compression, the cyclical nature of major tech stocks, sector strategies and even a Mullet Portfolio.

• MRKT Call: Guy and Dan discuss historical levels of bearishness. (the most since 1995), EPS revisions, oversold and overbought readings, a roundup of symbols in the news, as well as your questions.

MRKT MATRIX: April 15, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 seesaws as investors digest latest earnings and tariff volatility eases (CNBC)

• Jefferies cuts S&P 500 target, sees stocks falling from here (CNBC)

• Retail Investors Who’ve Only Known Bull Markets Are Buying the Dip (Bloomberg)

• For Wall Street Banks, Worsening Economy Is a Problem for Later (Bloomberg)

• China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands (Bloomberg)

• EU Expects US Tariffs to Stay as Talks Make Little Progress (CNBC)

• US Economy Is Set to Lose Billions as Foreign Tourists Stay Away (Bloomberg)

• Netflix Aims to Join the $1 Trillion Club (WSJ)

• OpenAI considering its own social network to compete with Elon Musk’s X (CNBC)

• How Elon Musk Stopped Loving Cars and Left Tesla in the Lurch (The Information)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by FactSet

Investors Are The Most Bearish In 30 Years. Time To Buy Stocks?

The show begins with discussions on the historical levels of bearishness. (the most since 1995), covers EPS revisions, oversold and overbought readings and a roundup of symbols in the news as well as your questions.

• Chart of the Day 1: Overbought vs Oversold S&P stocks

• Chart of the Day 2: Worst EPS revisions since Covid

• Analysis: SPX, VIX, US10YY, Gold, NVDA, SOXX, MU, DELL, MSFT, GOOGL

• Your Questions Answered:

  • What’s next for yields, 4.0 or 4.75, or is it simply a range between?

  • Thoughts on BMY, wait for drug tariffs to be unleashed?

Sign up below to receive daily MRKT Call reminders and early access to the charts featured in the show.

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Current and RBC

The Mullet Portfolio with Cameron Dawson of NewEdge

In this episode of the Risk Reversal podcast, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, to discuss a range of timely financial and economic topics. They begin by reflecting on Cameron's market outlook for 2025, noting how high valuations and investor optimism have left little room for error, and how recent market volatility may signal a shift toward a more downward trend. The conversation covers the risks of multiple compression, the cyclical nature of major tech stocks, and the challenges of interpreting economic data—especially as soft data weakens and the potential impact of tariffs looms. They analyze the effects of recent and proposed tariffs, debating their purposes (negotiation, manufacturing reorientation, or revenue generation) and their likely consequences for growth, inflation, and consumers. The discussion also delves into the volatility in bond and currency markets, concerns about foreign holders of U.S. debt, and the implications of central bank gold buying. The hosts consider the Federal Reserve’s policy options in the face of stagflation and political pressures and speculate on the risks to Fed independence.

Finally, they explore sector strategies for navigating volatility, the importance of a long-term investment perspective, and the potential for both defensive and high-beta stocks to play a role in portfolios during uncertain times.

Timecodes:

• 0:00 - Fast Money Live Promo Code

• 1:00 - Cameron's Market Outlook

• 9:00 - Mag 7 Stocks

• 12:00 - Bond Yields

• 17:30 - China Tariffs

• 24:15 - Trade Deficit

• 26:00 - The Pace of the Sell-Off

• 28:45 - The Employment Picture

• 33:15 - What if Fed Chair Powell gets Fired

• 36:35 - Sectors to Buy if the Bounce Holds

• 38:45 - The Mullet Portfolio

What’s Next?

Some structural changes over the next two days could lead to more volatility, particularly in individual tickers into the heart of earnings season.

After one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory, equity markets have settled into a relatively tight trading range over the past two sessions. It’s possible this period of relative calm could persist through the remainder of the holiday-shortened week or beyond—but there are a couple of structural catalysts on the horizon that could shake things up a bit into next week.

The first is VIX expiration on Wednesday (tomorrow) where both monthly VIX futures and options expire. With the recent wild swings in volatility into this expiration expect some fairly significant unwinds and rolls that can sometimes spill over from the VIX complex into the broader market. It’s not uncommon to see the market fairly stable in the days into a VIX expiration, but then see volatility pick up after.

That of course is followed by monthly options expiration on Thursday (moved up a day due to Friday’s market holiday). It’s possible the passing of this monthly options expiration may be seen more in individual stocks. Equities have had heavy correlation over the past month as most moves were due to index volatility, but we could be entering a period over the next few weeks where stocks begin to diverge from each other. The two main factors are a busy earnings calendar, as well as tariff news that is beginning to be more sector specific. Add to that some large expiring option open interest on Thursday’s close and it may be a recipe for volatility to return next week.

As mentioned yesterday, tor those a little worried into some of the upcoming earnings reports (or more tariff headlines) the compression in implied volatility in options is offering some “second chances” to re-position and perhaps hedge some risk, or define risk to the upside at much more inexpensive prices than the prior two weeks.

Of course, it’s hard to imagine a return to the types of moves we saw last week, and the most likely scenario is that was peak volatility for now, but the changes over the next few days may be enough to open the door for the market’s next move, as well as the potential for divergence in names reporting.


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