- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- Apple Makes its Move, Takes Market Higher on the Day
Apple Makes its Move, Takes Market Higher on the Day
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, August 6th
RiskReversal Media
August 06, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Mostly green today, with Apple leading the charge among the mega-caps for the first time in some time. The story of the past two weeks is a rotating roster of large daily moves in individual tickers, with the indices themselves in a holding pattern. Small caps did pull back slightly after a nice run the past few sessions. On the day, SPX +0.7%, QQQ +1.3%, and IWM -0.2%
Elsewhere, oil continued it recent decline, yields jumped a tad on a not so great auction late in the day. The VIX, now 16.77, compressed alongside a steep drop in short duration vol expectations. The options market is starting to ignore the day to day swings. We’ll see soon if that’s the correct assumption.
Notable Gainers: AAPL +5%, ANET +18%, SHOP +22%, TSLA +3.5%, AMZN +4%, WMT +4%, MCD +3%
Notable Losers: AMGN -5%, AMD -6.5%, SMCI -18%, NRG -14%, DIS -3%
After hours: APP is down -7%, DKNG is +3% and ELF is -2% following earnings.
MRKT Call: Guy and Dan on housing, consumer spending, and the lack of recession talk in earnings calls. Plus the AI spend seemingly powering the entire economy (with no sign of slowing). Coverage of PLTR, AAPL, Retail stocks, McDonalds and more.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks rise led by Apple gains, Dow climbs 100 points (CNBC)
Trump Ramps Up Tariff Blitz With India, Pharma, Chips in Sights (Bloomberg)
The Tariff Effect: Billions in Revenue but No Economic Earthquake (WSJ)
Bets on Fed Rate Cuts Are Sweeping Through US Bond Market (Bloomberg)
OpenAI in Talks for Share Sale at $500 Billion Valuation (Bloomberg)
The AI job cuts are accelerating (Financial Times)
Disney Tops Profit Estimates, Led by Parks Division, Streaming (Bloomberg)
Uber Boosts Buybacks by $20 Billion After Upbeat Forecast (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Today featured a sharp drop in short-dated volatility expectations with options now pricing very little movement over the next couple of sessions (and beyond that to be honest). Despite a handful of big intraday reversals in both directions over the past week, the S&P is basically flat since last Thursday and creeping back toward the top of the 200-point range it’s been stuck in for the past month. In other words, all that two-way volatility and underlying sector dispersion is starting to cancel itself out at the index level.
For the rest of the week, the SPX is pricing in just a 0.7% move, with at-the-money implied vol down around 12 — among the lowest we’ve seen in a week. That low-vol tone stretches all the way out to Nvidia earnings in the final week of August. Traders are now assuming the recent chop was more about earnings season-related noise than any real shift in sentiment or looming fear of a deeper reversal off the highs. We’ll see if that assumption is correct, because if it is we’d likely see a further compression in volatility and a grind to new highs. If incorrect, the dip buyers and vol sellers will get caught offsides.
For tomorrow, a BOE rate decision, initial jobless claims and another batch of earnings across sectors. As mentioned above, the dispersion of stocks during this earnings season, particularly some of the eye-popping downside moves is the main story of the past few weeks.
Thursday, August 7th
Pre-market: LLY 6%
7am - BOE Rate Decision
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims
10am - Fed Bostic Speech
After-hours: TTD 12%, XYZ 9%, PINS 10%, TEAM 11%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: The Economy is Innocent Until Proven Guilty
Guy and Dan on housing, consumer spending, and the lack of recession talk in earnings calls. Plus the AI spend seemingly powering the entire economy (with no sign of slowing). Coverage of PLTR, AAPL, Retail stocks, McDonalds and more.
Analysis - PLTR, WMT, TGT, WMT, AAPL, MCD, SMCI, CRWV, DELL
John Butters FactSet Report - References to “recession” drop in current earnings reports.
Your Questions:
Situation Room - Can we talk about AAPL up 5%?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
