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Boy, That Rally Escalated Quickly
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday May 13th
RiskReversal Media & RiskReversal Media
May 13, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities added to recent gains and are the SPX touched green on the year (the SPX finished ‘24 at 5907). A remarkable rally that is up nearly 22% from the intraday lows of just over a month ago. On the day, SPX +0.7%, QQQ +1.6%, and IWM +0.5%. Treasury yields were fairly quiet with the 10Y yield now 4.47%. Oil continued its recent bounce, now back near $64. Gold was slightly higher. The VIX saw a 17 handle during the day but closed just above 18.
After hours: Light on earnings moves again today, SPX/SPY sold off a bit into the close from the highs of the day and after house SPY is down a tad on top of that.
MRKT Call: A look at how quickly Wall Street is updating SPX targets and recession odds Also, what does the Fed do now?
RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy talk about the strategic movements of investment legends Warren Buffett and Paul Tudor Jones.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rises, erases loss for 2025, as Nvidia leads tech shares higher (CNBC)
JPMorgan Drops US Recession Call After US-China Trade Truce (Bloomberg)
Ed Yardeni cuts recession odds and raises S&P 500 target back up to 6,500 on Trump’s tariff rollback (CNBC)
Goldman changes tack again, raises 2025 S&P 500 target to account for easier tariffs (CNBC)
UBS Wealth downgrades U.S. stocks as others on the Street raise their forecasts (CNBC)
White House announces $600 billion Saudi investment in U.S. during Trump visit (CNBC)
The US Is on Track to Lose $12 Billion in Travel Revenue in 2025 (Bloomberg)
China Removes Ban on Boeing Deliveries After US Trade Truce (Bloomberg)
Microsoft Slashing Thousands of Workers, Including Management Jobs (WSJ)
OpenAI’s shakeup plan gets SoftBank’s nod - all eyes now on Microsoft (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The rally over the past month continued its remarkable climb today, with the S&P 500 flat on the year mid day—a striking milestone considering the index was down as much as 21% from all-time highs just five weeks ago. Since the early April lows, equities have rallied nearly +22%.
Today’s move added to the momentum of the 90-day pause news on Monday. There was additional fuel from Nvidia today, which jumped after revealing plans to sell AI chips to Saudi Arabia, as well as cooler than expected CPI.
The market appears to be transitioning from damage control to speculative mode very quickly. The speed and strength of this move—going from correction territory to breakeven on the year in the span of a month—perhaps shows an underlying sentiment that was in hiding during the trade war turmoil, back to AI-driven optimism. Something worth remembering.
While tariffs remain high historically and have the potential to do damage even at the current levels following the recent de-escalation, traders are betting on a continuation of the de-escalation. And that may be a good bet considering how quickly the administration has reacted to any sort of market turmoil, with a White House/Treasury put now established.
That can be seen in options and volatility pricing, with expectations of a sharp reversal lower from here not being priced at all anymore. And that provides an opportunity for those looking for a move lower from here on damage already done, as they can now look across most expiries, even to late in the year, with not much of a high volatility/premium penalty to do so.
Tomorrow is fairly light on the economic data front but with a couple of Fed governor speeches. PPI and Retail Sales come Thursday.
Wednesday May 14:
Earnings After Hours: CSCO 4.7%, CRWV 15%
SPX expected move into Friday: 1.2%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Wall Street Strategists Revise S&P 500 Price Targets...Again
Discussions on how quickly Wall Street is updating SPX targets and recession odds Also, what does the Fed do now? |
Analysis: SPX, US10YY, TLT, DXY, BTC, NVDA, PLTR, UNH, BA
Your Questions Answered:
Where did Guy get that shirt?
How are you positioned long term/retirement?
What do you think about Sept puts in PLTR I am long since 2022 and want to hold/protect.
Is UNH A screaming buy?
Learn more about our sponsor, FactSet.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Is This Rally Built to Last?
The strategic movements of investment legends such as Warren Buffett and Paul Tudor Jones. |
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan delve into the implications of the U.S.-China tariff negotiations and their impact on the markets, alongside a detailed discussion on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and inflation concerns. Key stocks such as Nvidia, Boeing, and UnitedHealth (UNH) are analyzed, with insights into their recent performance and the broader market sentiment. Additionally, the episode touches on the strategic movements of investment legends such as Warren Buffett and Paul Tudor Jones, offering listeners valuable perspectives on market strategies and investor behavior.
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
