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Cease Fire Sends Stocks Higher, Oil Lower
RiskReversal Recap: June 24, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 24, 2025
MARKET WRAP
A fairly decisive rally on the heels of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel that took the SPX above its recent consolidation and within spitting distance of its all time highs. Today’s move was helped by another sharp decline in oil prices as well as a collapsing VIX. On the day, SPX +1.1%, QQQ +1.5% and IWM +1.3%
Elsewhere, more signs of “risk on” with Gold lower by nearly -2%, the 10YYY lower to 4.29% and the VIX declining to 17.50. Oil was down -5% on the cease fire, now $65 (from $75 to start the week). The dollar on the other hand remains weak, with DXY back below $98 and at 3 year lows.
After hours: FDX is lower by about -4% after reporting earnings (and lowering guidance), but well inside its expected move. SPY and QQQ are both a tick lower after hours.
MRKT Call: Dan and Guy talk today’s cease fire rally, oil’s decline and a vol collapse. Plus credit cards, retail, and the upcoming robotaxi wars. And, a look at the options market with CC.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow jumps 500 points, oil prices tank as investors bet Israel-Iran truce will hold (CNBC)
Trump-Hailed Truce Falters With Israel Accusing Iran of a Breach (Bloomberg)
Jay Powell pushes back on calls for Federal Reserve rate cuts as soon as July (Financial Times)
Alphabet Lacks Tesla’s Stock Buzz in Race For Driverless Rides (Bloomberg)
Wall Street Says Buy Tech as Geopolitical Risks Often Contained (Bloomberg)
Meta Held Deal Talks With Startup Runway in AI Recruiting Push (Bloomberg)
Why Factories Are Having Trouble Filling Nearly 400,000 Open Jobs (NY Times)
Pressure to Seal Trump Trade Deals Ramps Up With Two Weeks to Go (Bloomberg)
German Business Outlook Hits Two-Year High on FIscal Boost (Bloomberg)
How Visa and Mastercard Can Survive the Stablecoin Threat (WSJ)
OpenAI Quietly Designed a Rival to Google Workspace, Microsoft Office (The Information)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Stocks surged for second straight day, with the SPX decisively breaking free from the tight 6000-level consolidation range that had capped volatility on the index for the past two weeks. The breakout puts all-time highs clearly within reach — possibly in the coming days — with only minor technical and psychological resistance expected near those levels.
As noted in recent commentary, last Friday’s large options expiration helped clear the path for a directional move this week. That direction now appears to be to the upside, with supportive positioning in the options market — particularly around the 6000 to 5900 level — persisting through the end of June. Adding fuel to the rally now is a sharp decline in the VIX, which had been stubbornly elevated in recent weeks despite the muted day-to-day moves in equities. Much of the geopolitical premium tied to Israel-Iran-US appears to have been abandoned following the ceasefire, leaving volatility to recalibrate, now more closely reflecting the much lower actual market volatility. There is still some PTSD left in volatility markets from the April decline and that is likely to persist until more definitive news on tariffs. That’s why we don’t see the VIX at 14 right now.
Looking ahead, short-term volatility measures could continue to fall into the July 4th holiday window, potentially turning any further upside into a slower, grinding rally near the prior highs. How volatility responds to any pullbacks from here will be key — even with the VIX 17, there remains room for it to drift lower (and stocks to find near term support) if the news flow stays out of the way.
Wednesday June 25th
10am - New Home Sales
10am - Powell on Capitol Hill, Day 2
After-hours: MU 8%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Markets Rally On Ceasefire Hopes
Dan and Guy talk today’s cease fire rally, oil’s decline and a vol collapse. Plus credit cards, retail, robotaxi wars. Plus a look at the options market with CC. |
Analysis - SPX, VIX, US10YY, Crude, AVGO, UBER, LYFT, DG, COST, WMT, HOOD, COIN, CRWV, CRCL, PYPL, MA, V, AAPL
Call of the Day: Goldman downgrades DG
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