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Choppy Day But IWM Back to Highs
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, December 4th
RiskReversal Media
December 04, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Today was a choppy one that eked out a gain by the close. Investors look hesitant to make any sudden moves after last week’s huge bounce and with the December rate decision now less than a week away. Small caps had another nice day despite yields being higher. IWM is essentially back to its all time high and threatening a breakout. On the day, SPX +0.1%, QQQ flat, and IWM +0.8%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY was higher, now back to 4.10%. Gold grinded higher and is just shy of its all time high. Oil was up, and back near $60. The VIX closed 15.80 as traders continue to dump options they bought the prior two weeks. (more on that below).
Today’s Notable Moves: Sector-wise, there wasn’t much of a theme today—everything was mixed. Small caps were strong though.
After Hours Moves: DOCU is lower by about -3% early, RBRK is +14%, and ULTA is +5%
Today’s MRKT Call: Liz, Guy, and Dan break down bitcoin’s recent panic then bounce, financials and possible headwinds, news from META and CRM eanrings, shifting Japanese rate dynamics, and what historical EPS estimates vs actual imply for the year ahead.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan welcomes Alex Sherman, co-founder and CEO of Bluefish. They explore how rapidly evolving AI is reshaping e-commerce, marketing, and consumer behavior—forcing brands to rethink SEO, adapt to AI-driven discovery, and manage how major AI platforms present their products.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 is little changed as investors look to rate decision next week (CNBC)
Layoff announcements top 1.1 million this year, the most since 2020 pandemic, Challenger says (CNBC)
Americans head to dollar stores as affordability crunch pinches consumers (FT)
Meta’s Zuckerberg Plans Deep Cuts for Metaverse Efforts (Bloomberg)
Alphabet’s AI Chips Are a Potential $900 Billion ‘Secret Sauce’ (Bloomberg)
Paramount Raises Concerns About Netflix’s Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The SPX has been pinned between 6,800 and 6,860 since last Friday’s open—basically flat for five straight sessions after a +5% surge in the five before that. It’s the kind of stall-out that both explains and is explained by the collapse in implied volatility. We had two straight weeks of heavy options buying—first puts, then calls—at elevated vol levels, and once that music stops, it’s a sprint to unwind all the exposure bought with the VIX 25+. The short gamma that was creating those 3% intraday swings has now flipped to long gamma, keeping the index locked in a sub-1% range. Stocks seem like they want to break out from here but there’s a lot of resistance when they try. If IWM were able to, it could be that spark.
One thing worth watching: the BTC–equities relationship seems to be re-forming after bitcoin’s bounce. Intraday charts have been moving somewhat tick-for-tick again, with the 2:15pm move today being a good example. Bitcoin’s bounce is also helping IWM.
Looking ahead, odds for a December rate cut haven’t budged and sit just under 90%. The real market driver next week will be the tone around what happens after December, especially with inflation data finally coming back into the mix after a two-month drought.
Tomorrow brings a delayed PCE print in the morning, plus consumer sentiment. Vol is a touch higher than the past two days, with the SPX pricing in about a 0.5% expected move.
Friday, Dec 4th (consensus)
8:30am - PCE: Sept (0.3%, 2.8%)
10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment - Prelim (52)
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Bitcoin Approaches Key Level, Is The Worst Over?
Liz joins Guy and Dan to talk about how tough it is to put any real outlook on this market right now. They dig into bitcoin’s recent panic-and-bounce, the financials’ performance in the face of potential headwinds, and the latest news from META, along with CRM’s earnings. The conversation then turns to the regime shift in Japanese rates and what it could mean for global treasuries, before wrapping with John Butters’ look at historical EPS estimates versus actual results and what that might signal for the year ahead.
Analysis - SPX, BTC, XLF, GS, META, CRM, JPY, US10YY, CAT
Sofi Weekly Report - Japan’s rising interest rates.
FactSet Earnings Insight - Tracking EPS estimates to start ‘25 vs actual, and looking out to ‘26
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Black Friday’s AI Takeover: Bluefish AI CEO Alex Sherman on Agentic AI, Marketing & E-Commerce
In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, host Dan Nathan speaks with Alex Sherman, co-founder and CEO of Bluefish, about the transformative impact of AI on e-commerce and marketing. They discuss how Bluefish aids large brands in gaining visibility and influence over how major AI platforms portray their products. The conversation covers the rapid evolution of AI technology, challenges for e-commerce giants like Amazon and Walmart, and the shift from traditional SEO to AI-driven marketing. Alex shares insights on how AI is changing consumer behavior, the adaptation required by brands, and the influence of large language models on market performance. They also touch on future challenges and opportunities for brands navigating this new landscape.
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
