- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- Choppy Day Ends in Another New High
Choppy Day Ends in Another New High
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, Oct 2nd
RiskReversal Media
October 02, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks had a choppy session, opening at new all time intraday highs, selling off about -0.5% from the morning highs, but then recovering to finish the day slightly in the green and a new closing high. Tech and Small caps were mostly higher with energy and consumer staples mostly lower. On the day: SPX +0.1%, QQQ +0.4% and IWM +0.7%.
Elsewhere, the 10YY a bit lower to 4.09%, Oil now flirting with the $60 level, Gold slightly lower with the dollar slightly higher. The VIX was higher despite stocks in the green. More on that below.
Notable Gainers: FICO +17%, CRCL +17%, COIN +7.3%, HOOD +4.9%, XYZ +4.6%, AMD +3.9%, SBUX +3%
Notable Losers: EFX -8.5%, OXY -7%, TSLA -5%, KO -1%, PG -1%, BMY -3.5%
After hours: SPY a tick lower, QQQ a tick higher after hours.
MRKT Call: Liz joins Guy and Dan to discuss the market’s morning reversal and muted reaction to the government shutdown, historical shutdown performance, moves in banks and big pharma, Tesla’s deliveries, Netflix vs. Musk, OpenAI stock sales, and the outlook for gold and silver.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 seesaws after hitting fresh record as U.S. government shutdown continues (CNBC)
The government shutdown is likely to cement additional Fed interest rate cuts (CNBC)
Tom Lee sees S&P 500 topping 7,000 by year-end, says don’t be fooled by shutdown calamity talk (CNBC)
US Hiring Plans, Job-Cut Announcements Drop in Challenger Report (Bloomberg)
Your expensive power bill is part of an alarming trend (Vox)
Microsoft Bets $33 Billion on Neoclouds like Nebius to Ease AI Crunch (Bloomberg)
Microsoft wants to mainly use its own AI data center chips in the future (CNBC)
Intel stock is up 50% over the last month, putting U.S. stake at $16 billion (CNBC)
OpenAI Valuation Reaches $500 Billion, Topping Musk’s SpaceX (Bloomberg)
Tesla Sales Surge to Record on Rush to Snag US Tax Credit (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
On the second day of the government shutdown treasuries were still quiet, but the 10YY eased a few more basis points. That’s somewhat counter-intuitive during a shutdown, but more significant in that it has now reversed a good portion of its post-FOMC bounce which may have briefly squashed some euphoria that had been building. Now that yields are no longer a headwind, it may be helping small caps once again, with IWM re-approaching its late-September highs—a move that, if confirmed, could reignite broader market euphoria. Signs of that exuberance are already visible, with a new batch of high-flyers emerging daily; today’s included HOOD, COIN, XYZ, and CRCL, among others.
At the same time, volatility signals are hinting at more speculative froth ahead, as the VIX has risen from around 15 to near 17 despite equities returning to record highs. If IWM breaks out decisively, it could spark another wave of aggressive upside call buying across mid- and small-cap names, fueling even more parabolic moves. Keep an eye on IWM, the VIX, and HOOD, which all sit at the center of what could become the next retail-driven burst of euphoria.
Looking ahead, tomorrow’s September jobs report has been delayed by the shutdown, and traders are pricing in an unusually low 0.4% expected move, matching today’s subdued tone.
Friday, October 2nd
3:40am ECB Lagarde Speech
4:05am - Fed Williams Speech
10am - ISM Services PMI (51.7)
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: What Happens To Markets During A Shutdown?
Liz joins Guy and Dan to discuss today’s morning reversal in stocks and whether the government shutdown is having any real impact on markets. Liz shares insights from her report on how markets have historically performed during past shutdowns. The team also covers recent moves in banks and big pharma, Tesla’s deliveries and the impact of expiring tax credits, Netflix vs. Musk, and the latest OpenAI private stock sales. Plus where do gold and silver go from here?
Analysis - SPX, XLF, JPM, XLV, TSLA, GM, TSLA, Gold, Silver
SoFi Weekly Report - Prior shutdowns and equity performance in the following months.
Your Questions
fatal9998 - what the hell does gold do in 2026?
Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.
