MARKET WRAP

Equities were spooked by another round of concerning consumer sentiment data as well as more tariff talk, this time around autos. For the day SPX -1.2%, QQQ, -1.8%, and IWM -1.1%. Notable decliners included big tech like AMZN, as well as recently rebounding stocks like NVDA and TSLA. Gainers indicated defensive posturing, with KO, PG and MCD all higher on the day. 

Counter to a complete growth fear narrative for the day, treasury yields were slightly higher with the 10Y yield now 4.35%. Oil was up slightly as well, now 69.73. 

• On today’s MRKT Call some discussion on whether we’ll see some pre-announcments soon, a trade update in TLT, and your questions answered. 

• On today’s RiskReversal Pod, coverage​​ of troubling consumer confidence, NVDA and the AI trade, as well as discussions on geopolitical risk and risks here at home. Enjoy!

MRKT MATRIX: March 26, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 hits low of session, down 1% ahead of new auto tariff announcement (CNBC)

• Trump to announce new auto tariffs Wednesday (CNBC)

• Trump Weighs Imposing Copper Import Tariffs in Weeks, Not Months (Bloomberg)

• US Stock Market Liquidity Drying Up as Trade War Concerns Mount (Bloomberg)

• Barclays cuts S&P 500 target to lowest on Wall Street as tariff pressure mounts (CNBC)

• Trump’s Aggression Sours Europe on US Cloud Giants (Wired)

• Tariff Uncertainty May Cause Turbulence for Chip Stocks, Analyst Says (MarketWatch)

• Nvidia’s China sales face threat from Beijing’s environmental curbs (FT)

• TSMC’s US-Made Chips Might Not Be That Expensive. It’s Bad News for Intel. (Barron’s)

• Alibaba Teams Up With BMW to Develop AI for Cars in China (Bloomberg)

• Wall Street Bonus Pool Surges to a Record $47.5 Billion for 2024 (Bloomberg)

• Over 9 million student loan borrowers past-due after bills restarted, Fed estimates (CNBC)

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Betterment and iConnections

Consumer Confidence Hits The Panic Button & What It Means For Investors

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan dive into current market observations, covering topics such as consumer confidence, tariffs, and China's role in the global economy. They discuss the significance of copper prices, Nvidia's position amidst China's environmental regulations, and the evolving landscape of the electric vehicle market in China. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical tensions involving Russia and China, the impact of tariffs on global trade dynamics, and the implications of AI development for tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. The episode culminates with a critical discussion on Elon Musk's influence across various sectors and the broader implications of AI and cloud computing in the coming years.

Timecodes 

0:00 - Consumer Confidence

11:00 - NVDA & The AI Trade

20:00 - Trust In Systems

By clicking “Subscribe, I accept the MoneyLion Privacy Policy.

What’s Next?

As noted yesterday, implied volatility saw a sharp decline during the recent SPX rally from -10%. While there were reasons for this drop, it likely happened too quickly. With key economic data, tariff deadlines, and an uncertain move above the 200-day moving average all in play, volatility may have bottomed out for now. There’s a real chance that VIX 17 was the lowest we’ll see for a while.

What could change that? A stronger, sustained move above the 200-day moving averages across major indices—likely driven by a series of better-than-expected economic reports and positive tariff developments.

In the near term, several critical events could shape market direction:

• Thursday: GDP Report

• Friday: Consumer Confidence

• Friday: PCE Inflation Data

• Monday: End of the Quarter

• Wednesday: Tariff Deadlines Next Week

If the market fails to hold its current range—particularly SPX 5650-5700—we could see VIX back in the 20s. But also as mentioned yesterday, the market structure in this immediate area will find buyers on small moves lower (it arguably did today). Concerns for the recent rally (and a spike in volatility) would return if we approached that 5600 level, and potential chaos below that.

To the upside, there’s alot of overhead supply near 5800 and any rally to those levels over the next week would likely turn into a grind. Bottom line from a market structure standpoint, a rally from here has a lot of work to do without a complete change in the news backdrop, while buyers of dips near here are tenuous at best, and another violent spike in vol just below. 


Subscribe to the RiskReversal YouTube Channel and drop a comment/like to show your support

Want to check out past episodes? Search for “On The Tape,” “MRKT Call,” or “Okay, Computer.” wherever you listen to podcasts

We want to hear your feedback! Reply to this email with any comments or questions