MARKET WRAP

We kicked off December with a little bit of selling, which wasn’t surprising given the roughly +4% bounce we just logged over the past week. On the Day: SPX -0.5%, QQQ -0.4% and IWM -1.3%.

Elsewhere, the crypto rally of last week appears to have failed, BTC is now back to $86k and near last week’s lows. Treasury yields bounced, with the US10YY now back to 4.09%. Gold is on the move again, now just shy of its all time highs. The VIX was higher, now 17.25.

Notable Moves: Most sectors were in the red today with the exception of energy and consumer discretionary. Tech was fairly mixed as some names like NVDA were green. It was a bit of a bloodbath in Crypto related names, but they were off their lows by the end of the day.

After Hours: MDB is +16% on earnings, well beyond the 12% expected move.

Today’s MRKT Call: Guy, Dan, and Carter break down a flat-but-volatile November—covering crypto weakness and deleveraging, stress in private equity and credit, key earnings setups, broader macro trends, and the fading impact of circular-funding headlines in names like NVDA, ORCL, and SNPS.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• S&P 500 slides to start December as falling bitcoin hits sentiment (CNBC)

• Crypto Downturn Wipes Out Nearly $1 Billion in Levered Bets (Bloomberg)

• US Factory Activity Shrinks by the Most in Four Months (Bloomberg)

• As regime change looms at the Fed, one candidate emerges as frontrunner for chair (CNBC)

• American Consumers Lose Patience With High Car Prices (WSJ)

• Shopify Breaks Down on Busy Cyber Monday (WSJ)

• Nvidia Buys $2 Billion of Chip Software Maker Synopsys Stock (Bloomberg)

• Nvidia shares to retreat 20% on competitive pressures, says only analyst with sell rating (CNBC)

• OpenAI’s lead under pressure as rivals start to close the gap (FT)

WHAT’S NEXT?

A big story today (and over the weekend) was continued weakness in bitcoin and as a result the crypto related and adjacent names. COIN gave back a good chunk of its recent rebound, HOOD faded a bit, but significant damage continues in names like MSTR—which never really participated in last week’s bitcoin bounce and began the new week rolling over again. It’s an interesting pocket of the market because it’s been so tightly linked to broader equity momentum (and even the Nasdaq) for a while, but that relationship is showing major cracks as something specific seems to be weighing on the crypto ecosystem right now (see today’s MRKT Call for more discussion).

Treasury yields saw a bounce today that was fairly interesting. With December rate-cut odds climbing to 85%, the move down to ~4% on the 10-year might be as far as the market wants to take it for now. Yields look like they’ve priced in a December cut but aren’t fully buying into anything more aggressive after that. If that’s the setup, a cut with lukewarm guidance beyond December could be setting equities up for a “sell the news” moment into or out of the FOMC.

And speaking of the Fed—Powell speaks tonight (8pm, not 8am as I had in the weekly preview), but it’s not expected to offer anything meaningful on policy. Tomorrow is light on data, but we do get earnings from MRVL and CRWD after the close. Short duration vol was slightly higher with today’s selling and coming out of a long weekend, but nothing super fearful yet with an expected move around 0.5% for tomorrow:

• Tuesday, Dec 1st

  • After-hours: MRVL 10%, CRWD 7%

• SPX Expected Move: 0.5%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Crypto Catastrophe + Earnings Season Isn't Over Yet! | $CRM $MRVL $CRWD

Guy and Dan break down a flat November in the face of all the recent volatility, the continued weakness in bitcoin, and the ongoing deleveraging across the crypto-treasury complex. They also dive into the big private-equity names and some emerging signs of stress in credit markets. Carter joins with chart updates on this week’s earnings names—MRVL, CRWD, CRM, and SNOW—and takes a broader look at metals, treasuries, Japan, and more. They wrap with NVDA and ORCL, and a discussion of the diminishing returns of circular-funding headlines coming out of names like SNPS.

Analysis - SPX, BTC, MSTR, APO, BX, MRVL, CRWD, CRM, SNOW, TLT, Gold, GLD, JPY, ORCL, NVDA, SNPS

Learn more about our sponsor, Fidelity.

Learn more about our sponsor CME Group and iConnections.

A MESSAGE FROM OUR PARTNER

Subscribe to the RiskReversal YouTube Channel and drop a comment/like to show your support

Want to check out past podcast episodes? Go to wherever you get your podcasts and type in “RiskReversal Media”

We want to hear your feedback! Reply to this email with any comments or questions