MARKET WRAP

A little bit of a threat this morning to extend yesterday’s losses that ultimately resolved to the upside, with the SPX finishing higher to end an extremely volatile week. For the day: SPX +1.8%, QQQ +1.9%, and IWM +1.5%. For the week the SPX was higher by about 5%. The week saw about a 13% range with multiple wild moves in between. 

It’s not just volatile in equities, with wild moves in treasuries and the dollar. For the day US10Y Yield was +0.08 to close at 4.49%. The 10Y yield jump from 3.90% to 4.50% was the largest one week spike since 2001. DXY was lower again today, down -1%. No stopping Gold for now, up another +2%. Oil also gained +2.5%. The VIX declined sharply into the weekend to close just under 38, still very high, obviously.

• Today’s RiskReversal Pod: “It's The Scariest Time That I've Ever Seen" - Dan Ives on Tariffs, The Mag7 & U.S. Tech Leadership

MRKT MATRIX: April 11, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Dow jumps 600 points as White House optimistic China wants deal, wrapping up historic week (CNBC)

• Bank of America’s Hartnett says sell into rallies until the S&P 500 falls further (CNBC)

• Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market (CNBC)

• Fed’s Kashkari says rising bond yields, falling dollar show investors are moving on from the U.S. (CNBC)

• JPMorgan Stock Traders Notch Record Revenue on Market Chaos (Bloomberg)

• Morgan Stanley Traders Rally Past Estimates on Market Turmoil (Bloomberg)

• Wells Fargo Beats Forecasts for Expenses, Loan-Loss Provisions (Bloomberg)

• S&P 500 Will Likely Report Earnings Growth Above 10% for Q1 (FactSet)

• Tesla Stops Taking Orders in China for Models Imported From the US (Bloomberg)

• How to Play the Biotech Meltdown in the Age of RFK Jr. and Tariffs (WSJ)

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood

"It's The Scariest Time That I've Ever Seen" - Dan Ives on Tariffs, The Mag7 & U.S. Tech Leadership

Dan Nathan is joined by Dan Ives, Global Head of Technology Research at Wedbush Securities, to discuss the current state of the tech sector and broader market dynamics. The podcast covers a range of topics including the impact of tariffs on the U.S. tech industry, the potential long-term effects on supply chains, and the implications for major tech companies like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla. Dan Ives shares his concerns about the structural damage to the tech sector and provides insight into his revised earnings estimates for these companies. The conversation also touches on the resilience of certain stocks, the anticipated performance of hyperscalers, and the broader economic challenges posed by current U.S. policies. Despite the market volatility, both Dans emphasize the importance of staying well-informed and managing investment strategies carefully during uncertain times.

Timecodes

• 0:00 - Take

• 9:50 - What's Priced In?

• 19:10 - Different This Time

• 29:20 - Tech Recession

• 39:45 - NVDA

• 43:20 - AAPL

• 47:45 - MSFT

• 49:20 - GOOGL

• 50:25 - META

• 51:52 - AMZN

• 53:35 - TSLA

• 1:00:05 - Final Thoughts

What’s Next?

This week saw extreme volatility with price swings in the SPX you will rarely ever see. The index began the week at 5100, saw an intraweek low of 4850, and closed 5360. That’s a big range, but it doesn’t even do the moves between justice:

Some of the moves we saw:

• Monday: Loss of -5% to start the week, got as low as 4835 SPX (Low for the current correction, more than -20% from the highs)

• Wednesday: A move from 4900 to 5480 +12% (on the 90 day reprieve) 

• Thursday: A move from 5480 down to 5115 or a -6.5% decline. (at one point had given up about half of the prior day’s gains)

For the week: +10% off the lows and a +5% gain on the week.

Those are the types of moves you only see in a bear market and with a VIX 50+. We close the week towards the highs of the week and with a VIX back below 40 so who knows if that was the worst of the worst. The China talks (or lack thereof are the remaining piece). There’s likely some headlines Sunday as European representatives will be in DC.

Speaking of Sunday, we’ll be back with a preview of next week, including economic events, earnings and of course more tariff news. Check your inbox on Sunday evening for that. And have a great weekend!

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