MARKET WRAP

A day that saw moves higher and lower ended with equities slightly in the red. As mentioned, tomorrow is a very large expiration that has been having an increasingly large effect on intraday movements. (more on that at the bottom of this email). For the day, SPX -0.2%, QQQ -0.3% and IWM -0.6%. The 10Y yield closed 4.24%. Oil had some global macro headlines to send it a bit higher +1.7%. The VIX closed just below 20.

• On today’s RiskReversal Pod, Jeff Richards, of Notable Capital on the shift from mega cap tech to gold, Europe and more.

• On MRKT Call, FOMC coverage and your questions on COST, META, TSLA and more.

MRKT MATRIX: 3.20. 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 falls as Wall Street's struggles from monthlong rout continue (CNBC)

• Treasuries Extend Gains From Fed as Market Bets on Lower Rates (Bloomberg)

• Fed Projections See an Economy Dramatically Reset by Trump’s Election (WSJ)

• Trump Says Fed Should Cut Rates as Tariff Push Heats Up (Bloomberg)

• Retail investors take on hedge funds in Europe’s answer to ‘meme stock’ mania (Financial Times)

• Rethinking the 60/40 portfolio in an era of volatility, according to Morgan Stanley Investment Management (CNBC)

• Tesla Recalls Cybertrucks After Pieces of Steel Trim Come Loose (Bloomberg)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by SoFi

What The Fed Said: No Rush To Cut Rates

The show begins with a discussion on yesterday’s FOMC statement and presser. Then a look at Liz’s latest note, growth and inflation expectations, and consumer sentiment appearing to expect a bout of stagflation. That segues into a look at the SPX and NDX charts. 

• Call of the Day: NVDA

• Chart of the Day: SNAP (with a trade)

• Your Questions:

  • COST & WMT

  • A check in on TSLA’s weakness and where a bottom could lie.

  • META

The show wraps up with a look at TLT and a discussion on how politics may eventually catch up to the Fed/Powell into a March Madness preview.

Click here to access all of the charts mentioned in today’s MRKT Call.

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Betterment and RBC

The AI Trade Enters Its 'Show Me' Era with Jeff Richards

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome back Jeff Richards, Managing Partner at Notable Capital. The discussion covers a wide range of topics, including the shift from investing in tech giants like the 'Mag 7' to gold and European banks. Jeff shares insights on market concentration and the importance of discovering new tech opportunities. The conversation also delves into the AI revolution, its impact on private markets, and the evolving pricing models in the software industry. Jeff highlights the significant potential of AI in healthcare and stresses the value of taking a long-term investment approach amidst market volatility. The podcast concludes with some discussion on the NCAA tournament and Jeff's picks to make a run.

Timecodes

• 0:00 - Valley Vibes

• 7:45 - AI Skeptics

• 14:30 - Nvidia

• 20:00 - IPO Market

• 29:10 - AI Opportunities

• 31:55 - Hoops

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What’s Next?

Volatility into and out of Tomorrow’s Quad Witch Expiry

This week has seen a significant compression in volatility As discussed, the ongoing options expiration-driven pinning effect appears to be keeping the market in a tight range all week, and that trend looks likely to continue into tomorrow’s close (barring any major breaking news that could disrupt the dynamic.)

Tomorrow’s expiry is a big one, one of the largest ever. But because of some large positioning into the end of the quarter, some forces will still be in play early next week. As both tomorrow, and early next week sees the majority of recent option positioning expire or unwind, it potentially sets the stage for the end of next week (month/quarter end) to see more significant market moves, just in time for the latest batch of tariff deadlines/headlines. We’ll cover that in more detail over the weekend, but for now, the market dynamic could resemble late February, when traders began positioning ahead of early March deadlines. 

Because of this, even if the market continues to move sideways on Monday and Tuesday implied volatility (VIX 20+) likely remains elevated in anticipation of month end. Over the next few days, we’ll dive deeper into how this volatility setup impacts trading strategies for what could be the timing of the next market move.

For tomorrow’s Expiry, expected moves:

• SPX 0.9% (5615-5710)

• QQQ 1.1%

• IWM 1.1%

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