MARKET WRAP

Same playbook for traders today. Stocks opened lower on more trade war threats, but just like we've seen over the past two weeks, dip buyers showed up almost immediately. From there, it was a steady grind higher for most of the session taking the indices green. The SPX did close slightly off its intraday highs, and remains just below those all time highs made last week. On the day, SPX +0.1%, QQQ +0.3%, IWM +0.7%.

Elsewhere, fairly quiet in yields, with the 10YY now 4.43%. Gold also quiet. Oil continues to be volatile day to day, today down -2.2%. The VIX did open higher and remained higher on the day despite the rally, now 17.20. DXY also higher again today, something Carter Worth charts on today’s MRKT Call.

• Notable Gainers Today: ADSK +5%, PLTR +5%, FAST +4%, WMT +1.5%, GS +1.2%

• Notable Losers Today: AAPL -1.2%, MU -4.7%, LULU -3.2%, HAL -4.6%

• After hours: SPY and QQQ both a tick lower after hours.

MRKT Call: Carter Worth joins guy to run through the charts. He makes a couple of calls on SLV, BTC and DXY.

RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan look ahead to this week’s bank and tech earnings, CPI/PPI data, and discuss recent trade rhetoric.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Stocks rise as traders bet on lower tariffs before Aug. 1 (CNBC)

• Trump Tariff Salvos Push Economies to Seek to Broaden Trade Ties (Bloomberg)

• Musk Says Tesla Shareholders Will Vote on xAI Investment (Bloomberg)

• Jamie Dimon Says Private Credit Is Dangerous–and He Wants JPMorgan to Get In on It (WSJ)

• Japanese Bonds Tumble as Fiscal Worries Mount Before Election (Bloomberg)

• Plunging Dollar Leaves American Travelers With Less Buying Power This Summer (WSJ)

• Bitcoin Soars Past $120,000 as US Congress Starts ‘Crypto Week’ (Bloomberg)

• The Federal Government Is Retreating From Student Lending (WSJ)

• Alibaba Risks Deepening $100 Billion Rout as Turf War Heats Up (Bloomberg)

• Jensen Huang Talks Up Nvidia’s Strategic Value to US as He Heads to China (Bloomberg)

• Google Is Said to Pay $2.4 Billion for Windsurf Assets, Talent (Bloomberg)

• Zuckerberg Says Meta Will Build Gigawatt-Size Data Centers (Bloomberg)

WHAT’S NEXT?

This kind of intraday action has become routine lately: tariff headline-driven selling at the open, followed by a bid that holds into the close, even with some end-of-day chop. But tomorrow could bring a shift in tone.

For one, CPI drops in the morning, and focuses more on the real-world effects of the tariffs already in place. The market is pricing in about a 0.6% expected move on the day—larger than the recent average, but still below the kind of reaction we saw on CPI days back when inflation was a major driver (those often saw 1%+ moves baked in).

Adding to the mix, tomorrow also kicks off earnings season, with JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo all reporting before the bell. Options imply 3–4% moves for those names. Between inflation data and bank earnings, tomorrow is shaping up to break the recent routine of simply trading off of trade tweets.

One thing worth pointing out—today’s volume was pretty light, and even though stocks finished higher, the VIX and other implied volatility measures ticked up a bit. That could partly be a leftover effect from the weekend gap lower, but it also speaks to the kind of market we’ve been in the past two weeks. Not as ton of conviction but a default bid underneath. We’ll see if that changes over the next few days’ packed calendar:

• Tuesday, July 15th

  • Pre-market: JPM 3.3%, C 4%, WFC 4%

  • 8:30am - CPI

  • 8:30am - NY Empire Manufacturing

  • 9:15am - Fed Bowman Speech

  • 12:15 - Fed Barr Speech

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Chart Check: Bitcoin, Ethereum & The U.S. Dollar

Carter joins the show to discuss the conundrum of a historically fast rally from the April lows vs a market that’s barely up on the year, which is the true indicator of sentiment? Then, checking in on the charts, lighten up on SLV and BTC here?  A call for a bounce in the dollar. And a Netflix earnings preview. 

• Analysis - SPX, NDX, TLT, Dollar, BTC, ETH, BABA, LULU, UNH, TPR, RL, NFLX, KRE, JPM, Gold

• Your Questions 

  • Silver stocks? They’re on fire.

  • Any thoughts on the BABA chart?

  • Can you do a chart check on LULU and UNH?

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RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Jamie Dimon’s Big Bank Warnings

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