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RiskReversal Recap: October 29, 2025
RiskReversal Media
October 29, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks were choppy today before finishing mixed. Most of the movement came not from the widely expected Fed decision, but during Powell’s presser, where he slightly cooled expectations for a December rate cut, knocking odds from 90+% to around 70%. That sent yields higher and stocks briefly lower before mostly recovering into the close. On the day: SPX unched, QQQ +0.4% and IWM -0.9%.
Elsewhere, as mentioned, the 10-year popped back to 4.08%. Gold drifted lower again, oil ticked up slightly. The dollar was higher on the FOMC, with DXY now just shy of $100. The VIX stayed bid into the close as traders priced in tonight’s earnings, the overnight U.S./China summit, and another wave of megacap reports tomorrow, it’s now just shy of 17.
Notable Gainers: TER +21%, STX +19%, WDC +15.5%, CAT +11.8%, CMI +6.2%, JBL +5.1%, GLW +4.7%, PLTR +4.6%
Notable Losers: VRSK -11.3%, ADP -6.3%, ADBE -5.6%, LULU -5.3%, KDP -5%, PAYX -4.8%, KHC -4.8%, ADSK -4.4%
After Hours: GOOGL is up +5%, MSFT is -2% and META is -7% after hours. Also reporting, SBUX -1%, while CMG is -7%. All that has both SPY and QQQ unched. Earnings calls to come.
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy preview the FOMC, megacap earnings, and the China summit, discussing market breadth, stretched valuations, and potential warning signs emerging in software stocks.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow drops 100 points, giving up gain after Powell signals Fed may not cut again this year (CNBC)
Key Takeaways From Fed Decision to Cut Rate by Quarter Point (Bloomberg)
Government Shutdown Has Already Cost US Economy $18 Billion This Year, CBO Says (Bloomberg)
Tens of Thousands of White-Collar Jobs Are Disappearing as AI Starts to Bite (WSJ)
GM lays off more than 1,700 at sites in Michigan, Ohio, citing EV challenges (CNBC)
Blackrock Co-CIO Jeff Shen stays upbeat on U.S. stocks, sees opportunities abroad (CNBC)
Fiserv stock craters 43%, on pace for worst day ever after company slashes guidance (CNBC)
Eli Lilly, Walmart to offer first retail pickup option for discounted vials of weight loss drug Zepbound (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
After the close, futures are sideways on the mega-cap earnings reports we just saw. However, the U.S.–China summit overnight is probably the wildcard. Tomorrow remains busy, with LLY and MRK in the morning and then AAPL, AMZN, COIN, MSTR and WDC after the bell.
Small caps continued to lag today, with IWM slipping further from recent highs. NVDA’s parabolic move hasn’t sparked similar chases down the market-cap ladder, and even BTC and gold have cooled after their recent parabolic moves. It feels less a rotation and more a sign of caution at these levels after some traders got burned with the early Oct risk off. That might be wise soon, given that SPX faces heavy overhead supply around 7000, a zone crowded with institutional options positioning and year-end profit taking targets that could act as a near-term ceiling for either consolidation or even a pullback. Although maybe that’s when the small cap buying resumes, we’ll see. (more on that in later posts).
One last note on earnings volatility — there were some eye-popping moves today (see notable gainers and losers above). The recent bout of volatility heading into earnings season has set the stage for outsized reactions, especially in “story stocks.” But even “boring” names like CAT, which had an implied move of about 5%, ended up moving nearly 12% today. Something worth watching in the weeks of earnings ahead if you’re looking over risk in the portfolio.
The expected move for tomorrow is elevated, mostly on the China/US potential news, but also was pricing in today’s earnings after the close, which aren’t moving the indices a ton so far:
Thursday, Oct 30th
Overnight: China/US news
Pre-market: LLY 5.2%, MRK 4%
9:15am - ECB Rate Decision
9:55am - Fed Bowman Speech
After-hours: AMZN 6%, AAPL 3.4%, COIN 7.5%, RDDT 13.5%, WDC 9%, MSTR 5%, ROKU 12%
SPX Expected Move 0.7%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Bad Breadth and Overvaluation Won't Keep This Market Down
Dan and Guy preview today’s FOMC, Megacap earnings, the China summit and more. Plus a look at market breadth, market valuations and how the market keeps powering higher despite those things. Finally, a look at potential danger lurking in software stocks.
Analysis - SPX, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, META, STX, FI, NVDA,
Robinhood Live Trade - AMZN collar for even
FactSet/Butters Earnings Analysis - 12 month forward P/E at 10 year highs, then looking at it broken down by sector.
