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Gap Higher Fades on Another Sell the News Monday
RiskReversal Recap: Monday, July 28th
RiskReversal Media
July 28, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks kicked off the week with the same pattern as last week—gapping higher on the back of the weekend’s positive trade headlines—only to fade during the session. By the close, the major indices finished mixed, with SPX flat. Nasdaq was the best performing index, with Nvidia showing continued strength. On the day: SPX unched, QQQ +0.4%, IWM -0.2%.
Elsewhere, oil’s jump was notable, now back above $67. The US10YY ticked back above 4.40% while Gold pulled back (with the dollar higher). VIX is 15.
Notable Gainers: SMCI +10%, AMD +4%, NKE +4%, TSLA +3%, TTD +3%
Notable Losers: CMG -4%, DECK -4%, CHTR -4%, AMGN -2%
After hours: Stocks had a decent bounce in the final minutes and that continues after hours with both SPY and QQQ up a tick.
MRKT Call: Carter joins for a deep dive on which areas are already breaking out to new highs and which ones, like the Dow and parts of the Mag7, lag. Dan and Guy also preview this week’s major earnings and take a look at where the meme stock money might be rotating out of.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan and Guy preview the slew of events the week, including earnings, FOMC, GDP, and the jobs report. The new EU-US trade deal and its potential to drag global growth and analysis of Bessent’s debt issuance strategy.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 gives up gain and turns lower despite EU trade deal as traders brace for busy week (CNBC)
S&P 500 Reporting Net Profit Margin Above 12% for the 5th Straight Quarter (FactSet)
US and China Are Expected to Extend Trade Truce by 90 Days, SCMP Says (Bloomberg)
Donald Trump freezes export controls to secure trade deal with China (Financial Times)
EU faces backlash from France and Germany over US trade deal (Financial Times)
Tariff revenue is spiking. But who exactly is paying? (Axios)
Trump and Bessent Bring New Style to Managing America’s Debt (WSJ)
Five Signs of a Market Bubble Investors Are Tracking (WSJ)
The New Chips Designed to Solve AI’s Energy Problem (WSJ)
Huawei shows off AI computing system to rival Nvidia’s top product (Reuters)
China’s latest AI model claims to be even cheaper to use than DeepSeek (CNBC)
Silicon Valley’s $4 Billion Gamble on Defense Manufacturing (Bloomberg)
Anthropic Said to Discuss $150 Billion Valuation (The Information)
Ramp in Talks to Raise at $21 Billion Valuation, Up 30% From June Financing (The Information)
AI referrals to top websites were up 357% year-over-year in June, reaching 1.13B (TechCrunch)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The symmetry between today (a gap higher and a fade throughout the day) and last Monday is only notable because the action contrasts with the prevailing daily pattern of recent weeks, which typically featured grinds higher for most of the trading session. While it’s a small sample, the price action suggests that trade deal announcements may be turning into small ‘sell the news’ moments. But more importantly, the lack of a squeeze type reaction to the official news reinforces the idea that trade optimism is probably already priced into the market (A China deal could be the outlier). In other words, it doesn’t appear that trade deals are affecting the market either way. For now, the underlying trend remains intact, with today serving as a reminder that the market’s momentum isn’t being driven by headlines, and in fact it grinds higher more easily outside of the headlines.
As noted in yesterday’s weekly preview, implied volatility is particularly low to start the week. SPX at-the-money IV for Tuesday sits in the 8s—a level we haven’t really seen all year. That shifts midweek, with Friday’s IV closer to 14—still low by historical standards, but beginning to reflect some potential for movement.
In other words, the week remains heavily back-loaded, and traders are currently pricing Tuesday as another quiet session ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and a wave of megacap earnings. That said, we do have JOLTS data on deck tomorrow, along with a busy slate of reports from some high-interest names.
Tuesday, July 29th
Pre-market: BA 4.4%, UNH 7.4%, UPS 6.5%, SOFI 9.2%, PYPL 6.7%, SPOT 8.5%, MRK 4.5%, PG 3%
10am - JOLTS Job Openings
After-hours: SBUX 5.8%, V 3.3%, BKNG 5%, MARA 8.7%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Chart Check: S&P 500 After EU Trade Deal
Carter joins Guy and Dan for a deep dive into what’s driving the market, highlighting which areas are already breaking out to new highs and which ones, like the Dow and parts of the Mag7, lag. Dan and Guy also preview this week’s major earnings and take a look at where the meme stock money might be rotating out of.
Analysis - SPX, DJIA, Mag7, Mid-caps, SP equal weight, BKX, KRE, TTD, C, OIH, XLE, GOOGL, META, MSFT, AMZN, AMD, CRWV, CRCL, PFE, NVO, LLY, DXY, BTC
Your Questions:
STEVE Z - time to take profit in C or hold on?
Lee Jay-curious if u cats have thoughts on PFE. Stuck around 25 forever but fundamentals are improving. One of the few stocks that isn’t wildly expensive.
SDK347 - gold ready to party after recent pullback?
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Dumb Luck & The Art Of The EU Trade Deal
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami discuss the events the week, earnings at the 40% reported mark, upcoming FOMC, GDP, and the jobs report. The new EU-US trade deal with 15% tariffs and its potential to drag global growth and the market's reaction. Tariff impacts on various industries, and the nuances of Nvidia's dealings with China. Additionally, they analyze Treasury Secretary Bessent’s debt issuance strategy.
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