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Icy Reaction to Palantir Earnings Tests Market Vibes
RiskReversal Recap: November 4, 2025
RiskReversal Media
November 04, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities finished lower across the board today, and the risk off tone extended to other assets like Bitcoin. Palantir set the mood early reversing lower after a beat and good guidance. That negative “vibe check” took a lot of other frothy tech stocks lower with it. It was kind of ugly but not a complete bloodbath as some names like AAPL and MSFT held up decently. On the day, SPX: -1.2%, QQQ -2.1% and IWM -1.8%.
Elsewhere, Gold was lower and is now back below 4k. As mentioned, BTC is now below 100k, down from 125k in just the past month. Yields haven’t been very volatile during this uptick in vol eslewhere, the US10YY was down slightly, now 4.09%. Oil was lower to $60. The dollar’s sneaky rally continues with DXY back above $100 for the first time since August. The VIX had been creeping higher all week and closed today at 19. There’s been some sizeable put buying for the first time in a long time in QQQ.
Notable Gainers: PLTR -8.5%, MU -6.6%, MSTR -6.3%, SHOP -5.6%, NVDA -3.5%, INTC -5.6%, BKR -4.3%, TSLA -4.2%, CCL -9.3%
Notable Losers: YUM +7.2%, APO +5.3%, COST +1.3%, AAPL +0.5%, MRK +1.6%, GS +1%
After Hours: AMD is lower by about -2% after its report, well inside its expected move (it was -4% on the day into the print). SMCI is down by -10% (its ex move was 10%. PINS is -16% (its expected move was 13%)
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy break down Palantir’s post-earnings drop and stretched valuation with Carter Braxton Worth, who calls the market “sloppy” amid narrowing breadth, before previewing key earnings and discussing volatility and AMD’s setup with Fidelity’s Greg Stevens.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Liz on the OpenAI–Amazon cloud deal, CapEx and ISM data, bond market reactions, Bitcoin’s slump, housing and gold weakness, and Warren Buffett’s cash pile at Berkshire.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks drop on AI valuation concerns, Nasdaq falls 2% led by Palantir (CNBC)
Stock Bulls Get Wake-Up Call From Wall Street CEOs (Bloomberg)
This Famous Method of Valuing Stocks Is Pointing Toward Some Rough Years Ahead (WSJ)
Burry Reveals Nvidia and Palantir Puts After Bubble Warning (Bloomberg)
Alex Karp blasts ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry as ‘bats--- crazy’ for bets against Palantir, Nvidia (CNBC)
Job openings in October slumped to the lowest level since February 2021, Indeed measure shows (CNBC)
IBM cutting thousands of jobs in the fourth quarter (CNBC)
AI-washing and the massive layoffs hitting the economy (CNBC)
Trump Negotiating Deal With Ozempic Maker to Sell Some Weight-Loss Drugs for $149 (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
As mentioned yesterday, with so much market cap concentrated in a handful of Mag7+ names, the stakes are high if they were to all start to move in the same direction. Lately, the rally to new highs has been a game of musical chairs — AMZN, NVDA, and others carrying the load while weakness in names like MSFT, META and overall poor breadth went largely unpriced in the QQQ and SPY.
For weeks, we’ve noted IWM’s failure to clear the 250 level even as the SPX and QQQ pushed to new highs on the backs of a few mega-caps. That was an early warning sign as we’ve now gone into a very noticeable period of very bad market breadth. If you’re looking for new highs into year-end, the rally probably needs to broaden out. Easier said than done.
Implied volatility continues to grind higher, though there’s still no sign of panic — the VIX remains below 20. That said, downside protection has been getting more attention over the past week, particularly in the QQQ. With the SPX facing heavy overhead supply near 7000, the risk/reward up here looks increasingly asymmetric. That dynamic explains a lot of what we’ve been seeing the past week.
For tomorrow, the ADP employment number which carries added significance given the lack of an NDP number this week. Plus ISM Services. On the Earnings front, QCOM will be interesting given its recent news, plus HOOD as a check on recent retail investment and trading.
Short duration ticked up considerably today with the SPX expected move up to 0.8% from just 0.4% daily to start the week.
Wednesday, November 5th
Pre-market: NVO 8%, MCD 3%
8:15 - ADP Employment
10am: ISM Services
After-hours: QCOM 6%, APP 11%, HOOD 9%, IONQ 12%, SNAP 14%
SPX expected move: 0.8%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: $PLTR Sneezes & The Market Gets A Cold
Dan and Guy break down Palantir’s post-earnings drop and its stretched valuation. Carter joins to highlight the increasingly concentrated nature of the rally — with many stocks hitting 52-week lows even as the indices sit near highs — calling the current market “sloppy.” He also compares returns of the top 50 stocks to the rest of the market, noting the unusually weak performance of the MidCap 400, which has historically outperformed. The crew previews this week’s key earnings from MCD and UBER, and later, Greg Stevens, VP of Options Strategy at Fidelity, joins to discuss current market volatility and what to watch ahead of AMD’s report.
Analysis - SPX, PLTR, UBER. MCD, AMD, KKR, APO
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: What If Revenue Growth Can’t Follow Spending?
In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, Guy Adami and Liz Thomas delve into recent market trends and economic indicators, the OpenAI and Amazon cloud compute agreement, CapEx spending, and the ISM manufacturing index's recent performance. Also, the bond market's reaction to recent economic data and the what’s next for the Fed. The conversation also covers the underperformance of Bitcoin, the housing market's challenges, and gold. The episode concludes with Warren Buffett's cash holdings at Berkshire.
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