MARKET WRAP

The week got off to a rough start, with relentless tariff headlines and concerns over Jerome Powell’s job security weighing on sentiment. But a steady drumbeat of de-escalation helped turn things around, and by week’s end, the S&P 500 had rallied more than +4%. Tech led the charge — names like NVDA up +10%, while beaten-down stocks like TSLA surged +16%. For Friday: SPX +0.7%, QQQ +1.1% and IWM flat. SPX closed the week near a key technical level of 5500, which had served as support several times on the way down.

Treasury yields continued to drift lower, with the 10-year settling around 4.25%. TLT finished the week up nearly +2%. After a disturbing start on Monday, the Dollar rebounded, with the DXY closing the week just shy of 100. The reduction in fear was most evident in the VIX, which dropped below 25 by Friday’s close. GOOGL popped on earnings but gave back much of the move intraday — a pattern worth watching as the rest of the Mag7 gear up to report.

• RiskReversal Pod: Guy is joined by Mike Kao from Kainos Capital Management. to discuss currencies, commodities, the bond market, dollar hegemony, U.S. debt, global reserve currencies, and the potential impact of a shift towards gold.

MRKT MATRIX: April 25, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• S&P 500 rises as it wraps up big week of gains ⁠(CNBC)⁠

• China May Exempt Some US Goods From Tariffs as Costs Rise (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• Trump Sees Trade Deals Getting Done in Three to Four Weeks (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• Trump insists bond market tumult didn’t influence tariff pause: ‘I wasn’t worried’ (⁠CNBC⁠)

• Apple Aims to Build Most iPhones for US in India by End-2026 (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

• Amazon sellers raise prices after Trump’s China tariff: ‘It’s unsustainable’ (⁠⁠CNBC⁠⁠)

• Buy now, stock up or delay: Here’s what consumers are snapping up or putting off in face of tariffs ⁠(CNBC)⁠

• S&P 500 Earnings Season Update ⁠(FactSet)⁠

• Trump Says He Loves Millionaire Tax, Worries of Political Risk (⁠Bloomberg⁠)

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood

Gold, Ghost Cities, and the Great Credit Cycle: Mike Kao on Global Economic Shifts

Guy Adami interviews Mike Kao from Kainos Capital Management. They discuss recent unprecedented movements in currencies, commodities, and the bond market. Mike delves into the concepts of dollar hegemony and the distinction between currency strength and adoption. He examines the current state of U.S. debt, global reserve currencies, and the potential impact of a shift towards gold. The conversation also covers Trump's economic policies, a possible peace black swan effect, and the volatile oil market. Mike concludes with his views on the stock market, emphasizing the importance of event-driven investments amidst market volatility.

Follow Mike on Twitter: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy

Timecodes

• 0:00 - Since We Last Spoke

• 7:15 - Debt & The Dollar

• 12:15 - Oil

• 20:40 - Gold

• 22:15 - Trading The Trump Admin

• 31:00 - Market Outlook

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What’s Next?

It didn’t start off great on Monday but stocks steadily climbed the rest of the week with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 4.5%. The buying was reflective of investor optimism around the idea that the sweeping tariffs announced earlier this month may not stick at their most punitive levels — and instead, could settle at a lower, more manageable baseline. We also got some clarification on Fed Chair Powell’s job security. Sentiment got pretty bad on Monday and the trickle of news the rest of the week seemed aimed at de-escalation all around.

That sentiment shift eased pressure across multiple assets: Treasury yields pulled back from recent highs, and the U.S. dollar stabilized after an ugly decline. 

Still, there were signs of underlying caution. The gold trade continues and even and bitcoin saw renewed interest as a possible haven — a signal that some investors remain on edge about the damage already done and what’s to come.

Earnings season kicked off in earnest for tech. Alphabet (GOOGL) was the first of the Mag7 to report, and investors were fairly pleased with the results initially but the stock faded for much of the day. The rest of the mega-cap tech names are set to report over the next few weeks, with NVDA bringing up the rear.

We’ll be back Sunday with your full weekly preview, including key economic data and the most important earnings reports to watch heading into next week’s trading. Check your inbox Sunday!

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