January Ends With a Tariff Tumble

RiskReversal Recap: January 31, 2025

Author

RiskReversal Media
January 31, 2025

Big Announcement: The RiskReversal Pod launches Monday February 3rd, bringing together some of your favorite elements from OTT, Okay, and more into a fresh, streamlined format.

MARKET WRAP

Stocks traded higher for most of the day until the White House press secretary announced new tariffs—25% on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China—with full details expected tomorrow. The news pushed treasury yields higher (US10Y +0.04) and sent equities lower. The SPX closed -0.5%, NDX -0.2%, and rate sensitive small caps -0.8%. SPY/SPX had been as high as +0.8% on the day prior to the news. Meanwhile, the VIX, which had dipped below 15 earlier in the day, closed near 16.50. This leaves traders in a tricky spot heading into the weekend, as the specifics of the tariff policy will be crucial—potentially setting up a volatile Monday morning one way or the other. Speaking of Monday, keep an eye out for the new RiskReversal Pod, bringing together some of your favorite elements from OTT, Okay, and more into a fresh, streamlined format.

MRKT MATRIX: January 31, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

  • S&P 500 gives up gain, Dow falls as White House says tariffs starting Saturday (CNBC)

  • Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China begin Saturday, White House says (CNBC)

  • Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Ends 2024 With a Muted Advance (Bloomberg)

  • 'Better than feared': Apple’s earnings beat appeases Wall Street despite iPhone sales miss (Yahoo! Finance)

  • S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: January 31, 2025 (FactSet)

  • Gold Prices Had Best Month in 13 Years (WSJ)

  • New York City office demand is finally back to normal (CNBC)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by Robinhood

One month into the new year and a few weeks into the new administration, Guy and Dan assess where things stand. They take a deep dive into NVDA—undoubtedly the story of 2024—and what’s changed now. Guy highlights the bullish action in BABA as a sign that some market trends are shifting rapidly, while Dan discusses the cyclical nature of major market narratives like AI, pointing to MSFT’s action alongside NVDA this week.

They also weigh in on the DeepSeek story—whether it’s a "more with less" efficiency story or a potential exposure of black market workaround that could lead to tighter controls on chip sales overseas, neither of which would be good for NVDA. Then, a quick check-in on AAPL and META before turning to the 10-year yield, TLT, and GLD. Next, they tackle your questions, starting with the impact of recent lackluster earnings reports. The Call of the Day focuses on EA and a call calendar strategy, followed by a recap of the recent ORCL put calendar and some final thoughts on EEM.


Sign up below to receive daily MRKT Call reminders and early access to the charts featured in the show.

Today’s On The Tape is Presented by CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood

"The Big Short" 2025 Edition | iConnections Global Alts '25 Expert Panel

On this episode of "On The Tape," hosts Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses make a huge announcement! "On The Tape" and "Okay, Computer." will merge, with the main show becoming "Risk Reversal Pod" airing Monday through Friday, while Danny Moses will continue independently with the "On The Tape" brand. The conversation then flows into a comprehensive market discussion, covering the Federal Reserve's recent meeting, which was described as a "nothing burger," and analysis of major company earnings including Apple, Tesla, Chevron, and Exxon. The hosts provide detailed insights on market trends, with particular attention to Tesla's earnings despite poor auto margins, Apple's performance with modest growth, and the challenges facing big oil companies. The discussion concludes with observations about gold prices reaching all-time highs and the impact of AI developments on tech stocks, particularly noting the market's reaction to news about Chinese AI company Deep Seek.

Later, listen to a panel with "The Big Short" traders Steve Eisman, Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins from the iConnections Global Alts Conference in Miami.

What’s Next?

Today's market action cooled some of the momentum from the recovery following Monday’s sell-off. Despite all the recent volatility, equities closed out January with a 2% or so gain.

Looking ahead, next week brings more mega-cap earnings, including AMZN and GOOGL, which could drive sector-specific volatility. Friday’s NFP jobs report adds another key catalyst. On top of that, tomorrow’s tariff details has introduced fresh uncertainty—causing a spike in next week’s options pricing, which had been relatively low before the news. Options now imply nearly a 1% move for Monday and a 1.6% move for the week.

What was shaping up to be a quiet start to the week now has traders bracing for volatility from the outset. We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview—check your inbox Sunday evening.




Subscribe to the RiskReversal YouTube Channel and drop a comment/like to show your support

Want to check out past episodes? Search for “On The Tape,” “MRKT Call,” or “Okay, Computer.” wherever you listen to podcasts

We want to hear your feedback! Reply to this email with any comments or questions