MARKET WRAP

Some late-day selling notwithstanding, equities put in another positive performance on the heels of the FOMC and with some news on the trade war front in the form of an initial agreement with the UK. For the day: SPX +0.6%, QQQ +1%, IWM +1.9%. Elsewhere, the 10Y Treasury was up sharply, now 4.39% and perhaps complicating the story of the FOMC reaction by investors. Gold pulled back slightly and Oil surged back above $60. The VIX, now 22, is at its lowest point since before the April 2nd tariff day.

After hours: Earnings moves: COIN -3%, TTD +13%, DKNG +4%

• MRKT Call: Dan and CC discuss the UK trade deal, option pricing of both market moves and earnings in the current environment, Search vs AI, and investor reaction to the FOMC.

• RiskReversal Pod: Dan is joined by Danny Moses to discuss the recent Fed press conference. Then a conversation with Rick Heitzmann of FirstMark Capital, and John Bennett of Dashlane.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• Dow closes 200 points higher after Trump announces outline of UK trade deal (CNBC)

• Trump Hails UK Trade Framework as First of Many Tariff Deals (Bloomberg)

• Trump Says ‘Substantive’ China Talks Could Yield Tariff Cut (Bloomberg)

• Bitcoin jumps above $100,000 for first time since February (CNBC)

• Why the Fed Isn’t Ready to Join Other Central Banks in Cutting Rates (WSJ)

• Bank of England Cuts Rates After Fed Stands Pat (WSJ)

• Alphabet faces ‘watershed moment’ if AI erodes search dominance, analysts say (CNBC)

• Banker Bonuses Set to Drop as Tariffs Cause Economic Uncertainty (Bloomberg)

WHAT’S NEXT?

Stocks extended their rally following yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which investors interpreted as slightly dovish with a mid-day lift on an initial, though partial, trade deal announcement between the UK and the US that maintains a 10% baseline tariff level. The UK is the first of several potential deals, with reports indicating that Chinese and American officials are expected to meet soon—another development supporting market momentum. Alphabet shares rebounded modestly after concerns over AI disrupting its core search business; the company reiterated it continues to see growth in search activity. Boeing (BA) was higher on the UK trade deal news.

Having said all that, there was some late-day selling that took some bloom off the flower, and the bullish headlines aren’t exactly without their flaws. The reaction to the FOMC may be wishful thinking, or a “beware what you wish for”, and in fact, the 10Y yield was sharply higher today.

And with the UK deal, we run a trade surplus with them, a much different situation than with China and other countries. Plus, the 10% stays for now and one can assume that’s a low end of potential deals. So we’ll see!

Speaking of China, their trade balance numbers drop early tomorrow morning, then we’re in for a lot of global and US central banker speak, some of which could move markets tomorrow:

Overnight: China Import/Export numbers

Tomorrow, May 8th:

Central Banker Speak All Day: Schnable (ECB), Bailey (BoE) Williams, Barr, Goolsbee, Kugler, Waller and more.

SPX Expected Move: 0.8%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Trade Talks Underway: What it Means for the Stock Market

• Chart of the Day: Trade war vs US Dollar Weakness

• SoFi Report: Fed meeting reaction and multi-asset volatility cooling

• John Butters / Factset: Earnings moves so far

• Analysis: SPX, VIX, DXY, Gold, BTC, GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA

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They delve into cybersecurity trends, the rise of password-less security measures, and Dashlane's focus on enhancing both consumer and enterprise security. The episode also touches on the broader implications of AI in cybersecurity and the shifting landscape of tech investments.

Timecodes

• 0:00 - Fed Speak

• 7:20 - Chip Relief

• 13:00 - Big Picture

• 19:55 - Dashlane

• 32:15 - Public Market Angle

• 42:30 - M&A / IPO Environment

• 47:30 - AI Browser Wars

• 56:30 - Takeaways

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