MARKET WRAP

The indices took a bit of a breather today with the SPX trading in a 25 point range and little conviction either way. There were some more volatile sector and individual ticker moves beneath the surface, most notably bank stocks lower, while small caps saw a small bounce. On the day, SPX unched, QQQ unched and IWM +0.7%.

Elsewhere, the US10YY nudged up to 4.40%, Oil now $68.33, gold was lower, while DXY was unched, now $97.48. The VIX was (fairly sharply) lower today given the unched SPX close, now 16.82.

After hours: Both SPY and QQQ are a tick into the green after hours.

• MRKT Call: Guy is back! A look at a potential island reversal in XLF, new (higher) SPX price targets from Wall Street, CoreWeave’s buy of CORZ, meme stocks and more.

• RiskReversal Pod: Dan is joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Financial Group, and author of The Boock Report.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• S&P 500 ends Tuesday little changed as Trump’s tariff policy keeps traders on edge (CNBC)

• U.S.’s Biggest Asian Allies Ready Last-Ditch Trade Appeal to Trump (WSJ)

• Bank of America raises year-end S&P 500 target to catch up to ‘meteoric run,’ sees little gain from here (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs becomes second Wall Street bank to raise its S&P 500 target this week (CNBC)

•  Industry Analysts Project 7.5% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over The Next 12 Months (FactSet)

• Apple Loses Top AI Models Executive to Meta’s Hiring Spree (Bloomberg)

• Amazon Turns Prime Day Into Prime Week (WSJ)

• The declining dollar faces more headwinds after posting worst first-half return in 52 years (CNBC)

• How Unilever Used AI to Make Soap Go Viral (WSJ)

• Scant Winners in S&P 500’s Record-Setting March Are Warning Sign (Bloomberg)

• Global stock markets are calling Trump’s bluff on tariffs (CNBC)

WHAT’S NEXT?

With no meaningful headlines today on the trade war front and a couple day lull in both major economic data and earnings, equities took a pause today just above the 6200 SPX level. Whether this latest round of “kicking the can down the road” on trade eventually triggers another upside breakout remains unclear, especially given how different current conditions are from April/May. Back then, tariff delays came amid severe pessimism; now expectations are higher.

Implied volatility edged lower today, with the VIX slipping back below 17 and the expected move for the remainder of the week in the SPX now down to just 0.9%. Today’s calm followed a stretch of larger than priced moves, with most of last two weeks seeing greater than expected moves to the upside. Then we got yesterday’s move on shifting tariff deadlines and deal uncertainty, greater than expected to the downside. Looking ahead, some attention turns to the FOMC minutes. That said, markets aren’t bracing for fireworks, with the SPX pricing in just a 0.5% move:

• Wednesday, July 9th

  • 2pm - FOMC Minutes

Looking ahead, one area that did see some action today was the banking sector down sharply on some downgrades, with earnings just a week away. Here's a quick cheat sheet for the major names next week:

• Tuesday, July 15: JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK)

• Wednesday, July 16: Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC)

XLF is down about -2% over the past two sessions, following a +7% rally since mid-June. Next week’s results will offer the first real test for these names, many of which have recently gone parabolic, and perhaps give us our first look at how strong earnings need to be to justify recent moves in other sectors as well.

• Notable Gainers Today: INTC +7%, MRNA +9%, ON +5.5%, CVX +4%

• Notable Losers Today: JPM -3.2%, WMT -2.3%, AMZN -2%, FSLR -6.5%, NKE -3.2%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Island Reversal Spotted In The S&P 500?

• Analysis: SPX, XLF, US10YY, CRWV, CORZ, JPM, AAPL, META, SOXX, IGV, ADBE, ORCL, RBLX, WMT, 

• Call of the Day: Stifel downgrades CRWV

• Live Robinhood Legend Trade - XLF Puts

• Your Questions Answered:

  • 7 of the Fateful 8 down today, momentum fading?

  • Thoughts on LULU?

Learn more about our sponsor, Robinhood.

RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode:

Dan Nathan is joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakly Financial Group, on the RiskReversal Podcast. The discussion covers recent market trends, the impact of tariffs, and the job report from the previous week. Peter provides insights on the gap between economic data and market performance, especially in light of recent trade deals and tariffs with countries like Vietnam and China. The conversation also includes an analysis of various sectors including tech, banking, and retail, as well as a detailed breakdown of potential tariff implications for US corporations. They also touch on the role of AI, central bank actions, interest rates, and the strength of the US dollar. The episode ends with a look at the potential long-term impact of tariffs and the importance of staying informed amidst these market dynamics.

Learn more about our sponsor Robinhood.

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