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MSFT, META Take Us Higher. AAPL, AMZN Lower After Hours.
RiskReversal Recap: May 1, 2025
RiskReversal Media & RiskReversal Media
May 01, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Equities added to recent gains largely on the heels of MSFT and META’s post earnings moves. On the day, SPX 0.6%, QQQ +1.1% and IWM +0.6%. Gold continued to decline from its recent highs. Almost like it wanted to mess with the “Fed can lower rates now” talk, the 10Y yield ticked slightly higher, now 4.21%. Oil stabilized a bit, now just shy of $60 again. The VIX was basically flat, staying near 25. Tomorrow morning is Non Farm Payrolls.
After hours: Amazon beat, but issued light guidance. The stock is down about -3%. Apple beat slightly, and issued a buyback, but the stock is down slightly, -2%
MRKT Call: Danny Moses is back for today! A look at the recent rally and if we’re in a bit of an overshoot moment. Are we now rallying on Fed Rate Cut odds increasing? Are we already in a recession? Plus Derby picks!
RiskReversal Pod: Dan Greenhaus of Solus Alternative Asset Management joins to talk GDP, PCE, the trade war and a contrarian perspective on current market sentiment.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks rise to kick off May as Microsoft, Meta rekindle AI trade (CNBC)
Forget GDP. It’s the Jobs Report That Matters. (WSJ)
Markets Set for Shock From Disappearing Chinese Goods (Bloomberg)
Wells Fargo says S&P 500 could retest the lows (CNBC)
Summers Says Wrong to Say Markets Tell Fed It Should Cut (Bloomberg)
Meta Jumps on Resilient Ad Sales, Plans to Navigate Tariffs (Bloomberg)
Microsoft Shares Surge on Strong Quarterly Cloud Growth (Bloomberg)
GM Slashes Guidance With Up to $5 Billion Hit From Tariffs (Bloomberg)
McDonald’s Sales Miss Highlights Rising Consumer Anxiety (Bloomberg)
Nvidia says Anthropic is telling ‘tall tales’ in its defense of U.S. AI chip restrictions on China (CNBC)
Tesla Board Opened Search for a CEO to Succeed Elon Musk (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Stocks added to the recent rally again today, this time powered by Microsoft and Meta’s post earnings moves higher. Both stocks surged after hours on Wednesday and added to those gains on today’s open. Notably, both held those gains through the day, largely sideways most of the regular hours. Last week, we pointed to Alphabet’s earnings as a cautionary tale — a strong report that sparked an initial pop, only to see those gains fade in the following sessions. At the time, we flagged that price action as something to watch for with upcoming tech earnings. But unlike GOOGL, both MSFT and META showed staying power, with buyers sticking around all day to support the gap higher (although, the entire market saw some seller hit in the last few minutes, similar to buying into the minutes before the close yesterday.). Therefore, GOOGL’s action may have been company specific unless we see similar in the days ahead from MSFT META, AMZN and/or AAPL.
Tomorrow is of course the “All important Jobs Number”. Expected moves for the day below. Note that SPX and QQQ also include AAPL and AMZN reports after today’s close, so not all of that expected move is the jobs number:
SPX 1.2%
QQQ 1.5%
TLT 1%
Tomorrow’s SPX options are about 30IV, which is higher than prior days this week. Before the open tomorrow we get reports from XOM and CVX with expected moves of 2.4%, and 2.6% respectively.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Tech Rallies on Earnings & Fed Cut Chances Tick Higher
Danny Moses is back! A look at the recent rally and if we’re in a bit of an overshoot moment. Are we now rallying on Fed Rate Cut odds increasing? Are we already in a recession? |
SOFI Report: GDP weak consumer, but offset by business equipment spend. Diverging yields/growth.
Analysis: SPX, Dollar/Yen, GOOGL, GLD, PHYS, US10YY, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, WMT,
Your Questions Answered:
Any thoughts on where Gold finds support?
Were MSFT earnings to backward looking and not accounting for recent supply chain disruption? How do you game out revenue projections?
Would you rather, AAPL or AMZN?
Danny’s Derby Picks!
Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Earnings Guidance & Satellite Investments
Dan Nathan is joined by Dan Greenhaus , Strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management. |
The duo discuss recent market trends, including significant economic indicators like GDP and PCE, and delve into the impact of tariffs and trade deals on the stock market. Greenhaus offers a contrarian perspective on the current market sentiment, arguing that the potential for a shallow recession has been overstated. The conversation also touches on the durability of consumer spending, the implications of AI investment, and the potential trajectories for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Packed with valuable insights, this episode provides a thoughtful analysis of both immediate market conditions and longer-term economic forecasts.
Learn more about our sponsor Betterment and RBC Capital Markets.
