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RiskReversal Recap: October 28, 2025
RiskReversal Media
October 28, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks hit another round of new highs today, with the SPX getting above 6900 at one point. Today’s leader was NVDA, which not only cleared its early-October highs but closed above $200. There was a bit of selling into the close which took SPX back down to 6890. Small caps were red all day. On the day: SPX +0.2%, QQQ +0.7% and IWM -0.5%.
Elsewhere, yields drfiting lower into tomorrow’s rate cut. the US10YY is now 3.97%. Gold’s pullback continues, down another -1% today. So much for oil’s bounce, now back below $60. The VIX was higher into the big events the rest of the week, now 16.40.
Notable Gainers: REGN +11.6%, +MSCI 8.4%, UPS +8.2%, INTC +5.1%, HUBB +4.9%, NVDA +4.9%, PYPL +4.3%
Notable Losers: MSTR -3.7%, TTD -3.6%, QCOM -3.5% , ARM -3.1%, JNJ -1.7%,
After Hours: BKNG is +5% following its report, ENPH is -3%, while V is +1%. All early and pre conference calls.
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy on the market making new highs, discuss Peter Boockvar’s take on QQQ’s extended state, and share thoughts on trimming risk and potential replacements.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Liz break down Friday’s CPI, the Fed’s next moves, gold’s correction, key earnings, and U.S.-China developments, highlighting the biggest opportunities and risks for investors heading into year-end.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P tops 6,900 for first time as investors bid up AI trade before Fed rate decision (CNBC)
AI stocks could be part of a new Mag 7 (Axios)
The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership (OpenAI)
OpenAI restructuring pushes Microsoft’s valuation above $4tn (FT)
PayPal Raises Earnings Guidance After Announcing OpenAI Deal (Bloomberg)
Nvidia’s Huang Works to Convince Investors There’s No AI Bubble (Bloomberg)
Nvidia takes $1 billion stake in Nokia, sending the 5G equipment maker’s shares up 26% (CNBC)
Jensen Huang says Nvidia’s AI chips are now being manufactured in Arizona (CNBC)
The Fed has a rate cut plus a bunch of other things on its plate this week. Here’s what to expect (CNBC)
UPS deepens job cutting amid turnaround, says 48,000 roles eliminated this year (CNBC)
Amazon Lays Off 14,000 Corporate Workers (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Nvidia stole the spotlight today, but other Mag 7 names have been taking their turns as well, with MSFT standing out today as well. All of this sets the stage for earnings. What looked like stocks reporting after a pullback from their highs now will be the Mag7 reporting at or above their highs. It’ll be interesting to see whether these recent moves in AAPL, MSFT, etc. change the tone of how their earnings are received.
Meanwhile, IWM remains a little cautious. The 250 level looks like a key spot, and as we noted yesterday, traders who got hit hardest during October’s volatility — mainly in highly speculative names and regional banks — might need more confirmation before piling back in. That battle at 250 remains worth watching.
Implied volatility was interesting today. Despite a green SPX, IV ticked up. Part of that comes from narrow breadth — most index gains came from NVDA and the other mega-caps, with some red elsewhere. The other factor is this week’s calendar: with the week backloaded for Mag 7 earnings, the FOMC, and U.S.–China talks. As we mentioned this weekend, IV creep was likely. If all these events push the market higher, we could see vol compress sharply on Friday. If stocks go south into Friday, IV will remain bid.
Tomorrow is FOMC day. Most of the action likely comes during Powell’s presser, though traders are pricing in only about a 0.5% move for the session, and not expecting much out of the blue. Thursday is where traders are pricing the short duration pop in volatility, with MSFT, META, and GOOGL reports from the night before, but also any US/China talks, plus any 2nd day reactions to the Fed. Then Thursday after the close we get AMZN and AAPL.
In other words, probably a relatively calm session early tomorrow, a pick up in potential drama during the Fed, then right into the earnings after the close. That volatility is likely to last from tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning, with gaps a plenty.
Wednesday, October 29th
Pre-market: BA 5%, VZ 3.5%, CAT 5%, ETSY 10%
10am - Pending Home Sales
2pm - FOMC Rate Decision
2:30pm - Powell Presser
After-hours: META 6.5%, MSFT 4.5%, GOOGL 6.3%, CMG 8%, NOW 7.9%, MELI 7.7%, SBUX 7.3%
SPX expected move: 0.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Warning - Stock Market Collapse of Epic Proportions Ahead
Dan and Guy break down the market hitting new highs and explore the risks that may be lurking beneath the surface. They review Peter Boockvar’s note on QQQ, examining just how extended it is compared to recent history, and discuss strategies for taking some risk off the table — including ideas for what to replace it with.
Analysis - SPX, QQQ, CLS, SNDK, Gold, GLD, UPS, PYPL
Your Questions Answered
Matt Walter - Will gold get back on its horse.
Jack CF - KBW downgrade Berkshire yesterday, thoughts?
Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: What Wall Street Missed in Friday’s CPI, Fed Moves, & China Trade Talks
Guy Adami and SoFi's Liz Thomas break down the latest market headlines, tackling the fallout from Friday’s CPI report, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy moves, and a dramatic correction in gold prices. They discuss the potential end of quantitative tightening (QT) and what it could signal for market liquidity, as well as key earnings from major tech players and big names in energy and healthcare. With U.S.-China trade talks, volatility in focus, and the all-important seasonality window for stocks opening up, Guy and Liz unpack where investors see the biggest opportunities and risks heading into year-end.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi and RBC Capital Markets.
