MARKET WRAP

Equities notched a new all-time high today, but it had the feel of a Pyrrhic victory. The second half of the session saw a sharp intraday reversal into the close, leaving the SPX barely in the green and well off earlier highs. Under the surface, breadth was weak, and there were a few signs that speculative froth is starting to take some odd turns, including IWM reversing green to red by almost 1.5%, despite lower yields. On the day: SPX +0.1%, QQQ +0.5%, and IWM -0.4%.

Elsewhere, the US10YY was lower to 4.38%, Oil was slightly lower, while Gold jumped 1.5%. DXY was lower and now back below $98. The VIX was slightly higher, now 16.65.

Notable Gainers: VZ +4%, GOOGL +2.3%, NKE +2.2% OPEN +40%

Notable Losers: AXP -1.7%, NVDA -0.6%, LULU -2.2%, MRVL -2.2%

After hours: SPY, QQQ and IWM are all a tick higher after the close.

• MRKT Call: Carter joins to discuss the current complacency in the market, large cap vs small cap action, GOOGL into earnings and GM’s chances for continued upside. Then Dan and Guy with a look at PINS, treasuries, crude, the dollar and more.

• RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan discuss sentiment at all time highs and retail investor invincibility amidst signs of speculative froth, plus a look ahead at this week’s most important earnings.

MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs to start the week amid earnings optimism (⁠CNBC⁠)

• EU Is Racing to Secure US Trade Deal and Preparing for Worst (Bloomberg)

• S&P 500 Signals the US Stock Rally Momentum is Waning (Bloomberg)

• The US Economy Is Regaining Its Swagger (WSJ)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent calls for a review of ‘the entire’ Federal Reserve (CNBC)

• Nvidia’s China Restart Faces Production Obstacles (The Information)

• What Chip-Stock Investors Are Missing About Tariffs (WSJ)

• Perplexity in talks with phone makers to pre-install Comet AI mobile browser on devices (Reuters)

• Jeep maker Stellantis warns of a shock $2.7 billion loss as tariffs bite (CNBC)

• Are “Magnificent 7” Companies Still Top Contributors to Earnings Growth for the S&P 500 for Q2? (FactSet)

WHAT’S NEXT?

We’ve been highlighting a few things the past week or so, one was some signs of speculative froth and investor behavior that tends to come towards the end of a run higher in the broader indices. The second was the low levels of implied volatility following a consolidation around the 6200-6300 level of SPX that lasted for the past few weeks, and the fact that some of that positioning behind the curtain expired on Friday.

One day is a very small sample size but we got a little flavor of both today, with a fairly big (compared to recently) intraday reversal, as well as some craziness in stocks like OPEN that had become the newest short squeeze meme stocks (OPEN was up 100% at one point today, only to reverse lower by -50% into the close).

What stood out about today’s fade was the absence of a clear catalyst. No trade headlines, no Powell rumors—just a rally that couldn’t hold as buyers seemed to run out of gas near the top. It’s a small datapoint, but could be an early sign of buyer exhaustion setting in after a strong run.

The key test ahead? How the SPX handles any pullback into the 6300–6200 range that’s defined the recent consolidation. If that level holds and attracts fresh buying, today’s late fade may prove to be just noise. But if buyers continue to show intraday exhaustion, we may be looking at a short-term shift in tone that could only be supported by some blowout big tech earnings and trade deals. For tomorrow, we’re light on economic data but get a slew of reports including:

• Tuesday, July 22nd

  • Pre-market: GM 5.2%, KO 2.5%, LMT 4.2%

  • After-hours: TXN 5%, ISRG 6.5%, COF 4%

TODAY’S EPISODES

Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Chart Check: S&P 500, $GOOGL & $GM

Carter joins to discuss the current complacency in the market, large cap vs small cap action, GOOGL into earnings and GM’s chances for continued upside. Then Dan and Guy with a look at PINS, treasuries, crude, the dollar and more.

• Analysis: SPX, NDX, RSP, Russel 3k, GOOGL, MSFT, RBLX, GM, TGT, US10YY, OIH, Gold

• Call of the Day 1 - Barclays downgrades TGT

• Call of the Day 2 - Morgan Stanley upgrades PINS

• Your Questions

  • Is RBLX going back to all time highs?

Learn more about our sponsor, MoneyLion.

Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Why Retail Traders Feel Unstoppable

Guy and Dan discuss sentiment at all time highs and retail investor invincibility amidst signs of speculative froth, plus a look ahead at this week’s most important earnings. S&P and NASDAQ volatility, retail investor behavior, and trading volumes. The discussion touches on various economic indicators, earnings reports, and perspectives on market complacency, profitability, and potential market tops. The conversation also includes insights on AI's impact on markets, geopolitical influences like tariffs, and the Federal Reserve's role. Market skepticism and the potential dichotomy between bullish rhetoric and underlying risks are examined, along with specific company earnings expectations for firms like GM, Texas Instruments, and Google.

Learn more about our sponsor CME Group, iConnections, and SoFi.

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