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NVDA Drags Nasdaq Slightly Lower But SPX Still Going.
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, Nov 11th
RiskReversal Media
November 11, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened lower following a disappointing reaction to CRWV earnings and news of a SoftBank share sale in NVDA — but buyers stepped shortly after the open elsewhere. By the close, most sectors were back in the green even as the Mag7+ names stayed mixed. On the day: SPX +0.2%, QQQ -0.3%, and IWM +0.1%
Elsewhere, treasuries were closed for Veterans Day, Gold was a little higher, as was Oil. The VIX was slightly lower. BTC continues to struggle attempting to bounce back from 100k, lower again and now 103k.
Notable Gainers: FDX +6.2%, MRNA +5.4%, MRK 4.4%, PFE +4.2%, NKE +3.7%, MCD +2.6%, JNJ +2.5%, HON +2.4%, AAPL +2.1%
Notable Losers: APP -8.5%, MU -4.5%, LRCX -4.3%, COIN -4.1%, NVDA -2.5%, AMD -2.3%, SMCI -3%,
After Hours: OKLO is unchanged following its report, conference call to come.
Today’s MRKT Call: Dan and Guy break down widening volatility in S&P futures, dig into key stock moves from CRWV to ORCL, preview NVDA earnings, and unpack John Butters’ latest earnings analysis.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Liz on the market’s resilience amid the government shutdown, the Fed’s December rate cut outlook, inflation, labor trends, and year-end market dynamics, plus Liz on her 2026 outlook and rising tail risks.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow closes at record high, but Nasdaq slips as investors rotate out of technology stocks (CNBC)
Hassett: Some economic surveys weren’t completed during shutdown, so we won’t know what happened (CNBC)
Hassett Says Lost October Data Means ‘Cloudy’ Economic Outlook (Bloomberg)
Job Seekers Stare Down a Gloomy Holiday Hiring Season (WSJ)
‘Ghost job’ postings are adding another layer of uncertainty to the stalling jobs picture (CNBC)
AMD’s Lisa Su sees 35% annual sales growth driven by ‘insatiable’ AI demand (CNBC)
Three AI Megadeals Are Breaking New Ground on Wall Street (WSJ)
SoftBank Sells Nvidia Stake for $5.8 Billion to Fund AI Bets (Bloomberg)
‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry accuses AI hyperscalers of artificially boosting earnings (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Pre-merket weakness carried into the open, but it didn’t take long for buyers to step back in, with what seemed to be a bit of a rotation to other sectors this time, particularly healthcare/pharma. This was the first day in a week where the Mag7+ stayed mixed — NVDA and AVGO finished lower, while AAPL and MSFT and others were higher. The Nasdaq closed slightly red, but more than half a percent off its morning lows. We’ve been highlighting the convergence of the megacaps as basically the only thing that matters for the next leg of the market into NVDA earnings but today was a reminder that the chip stocks in particular can do their own thing, even while the rest of the market goes the other way.
Of note, the mixed action that included some weakness in specific areas of the tech/AI trade on a mostly green day was enough to keep volatility bid, with the VIX just barely lower and remaining above 17. It remains unlikely that volatility collapses between now and NVDA earnings as the market does seem to have a a lot of moving parts despite the lack of major earnings or economic data this week, as a slew of news is just around the corner. Of particular concern right now is when we do start seeing official government employment data as much of the private data released over the past week has been weak.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, we’ll get CRCL before the open, CSCO after the close, and a full lineup of Fed speak from various conferences:
Wednesday, October 29th
Pre-market: CRCL 12%
Fed Speak: Williams, Waller, Miran, Bostic, Paulson, Collins
After-hours: CSCO 5.5%
SPX expected move: 0.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: CoreWeak
Dan and Guy break down the widening volatility bands in S&P futures over the past week before diving into listener questions and tickers like DG, NVO, and NKE. They take a deeper look at CRWV’s post-earnings action, discuss ORCL’s weakness and what it could mean for names like MSFT, AMD, and DELL, a look ahead to NVDA’s upcoming earnings, plus John Butter’s earnings analysis.
Sofi/John Butters: S&P 500 Profit Margins.
Analysis - S&P Futures, VIX, DG, NVO, NKE, CRWV, MSFT, ORCL, META, AMD, DELL, NVDA, SNDK, XLV, INSM, BTC, Gold, SNAP, SLB
Your Questions
Sali - Can you comment on DG and FIG
Gregory C - Can Dan clarify his final trade from last night on MSFT and CRWV?
Eric C - Will SNDK ever have a down day?
Wavy McFly - Is the energy move for real?
Learn more about our sponsor, CME Group.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Momentum Over Logic: Why Chasing Stocks Works in This Market
In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, Guy Adami is joined by Liz Thomas from SoFi to discuss the potential end of the government shutdown and its market implications. They explore how the market is reacting positively despite the shutdown's minimal sell-off impact. The discussion also covers the possibility of missing economic data due to the shutdown and its consequences on the market and Federal Reserve decisions. The duo debates the Federal Reserve's December rate cut outlook, inflation concerns, and the labor market's current state. They also touch on seasonality effects, gold and Bitcoin market movements, and anticipated year-end market behaviors. Liz hints at her upcoming 2026 outlook, focusing on growing tail risks in the market.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi and RBC Capital Markets.
