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Nvidia Earnings Sends Market on Wild Ride Higher, Then Lower
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, Nov 20th
RiskReversal Media
November 20, 2025
MARKET WRAP
An absolute wild one today. NVDA’s earnings gap higher looked like it might just be the thing to save the market after several weeks of weakness. Then the entire thing, NVDA included, reversed hard to the downside to finish at the lows of the past two months. SPX traded in a 3.5% range today with volatility pumped into tomorrow’s monthly options expiration. On the day, SPX -1.6%, QQQ -2.4% and IWM -1.8%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY declined a bit to 4.08%. Dec rate cut odds actually increased slightly today, back to 40% or so. Gold stayed put, oil declined a tad. BTC continues to get punished, now down to $87k. The VIX got above 28 midday before finishing 26.40.
After Hours: On a tough afternoon to release earnings, ROST is higher by about +3.5% after hours, GAP is higher by about +4%. SPY and QQQ which had terrible closes to cap off a terrible day are following through a tad to the downside in after hours.
Today’s MRKT Call: Liz joins Guy and Dan to break down NVDA’s wild swings, serious cracks in other megacap tech names, the AI trade, Fed voter dynamics, Walmart’s earnings, healthcare stocks, and more.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Guy and Dan sit down with CME Group CEO Terry Duffy to dig into everything from Bitcoin, gold, equities, and shifting market correlations to CME’s push into retail trading and prediction markets.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Stocks tumble, Nasdaq closes 2% lower after stunning reversal in AI, Nvidia stocks (CNBC)
Nvidia earnings takeaways: Bubble talk, ‘half a trillion’ forecast and China orders (CNBC)
Ray Dalio says we are definitely in a bubble, but that doesn’t mean you should sell yet (CNBC)
Why Fears of a Trillion-Dollar AI Bubble Are Growing (Bloomberg)
A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges as Oracle CDS Market Explodes (Bloomberg)
As holidays approach, value players Walmart and T.J. Maxx are drawing the cash-strapped and the wealthy (CNBC)
American Shoppers Are Looking for Deals and Walmart Is Cashing In (WSJ)
S&P 500 Reporting Highest Net Profit Margin in Over 15 Years(FactSet)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Yesterday we laid out the “rest of the week” scenarios following NVDA’s after-hours pop. As we mentioned, the market is loaded with short-gamma heading into tomorrow’s monthly expiration and big moves were expected overall both today, and into tomorrow.
After a big gap higher and a strong follow-through, the SPX was up nearly +2% and flirting with 6800, volatility briefly collapsed with the VIX dipping below 20. (Scenario 1). But the cracks showed quickly: about an hour into trading, the rally unraveled, NVDA gave up its entire +5% move and reversed roughly -8%, and everything buckled with it. By midday the major indices were deep in the red and the VIX got as high as 28.25. (Scenario 2)
This leaves tomorrow as another potentially chaotic session with a massive amount of expiring options amid elevated implied volatility. As a reminder, as spooked as traders and investors are, market makers will be mechanically forced to sell into declines and buy into ramps, an intraday accelerant for outsized swings. A lot of that short gamma pressure comes off after tomorrow into Thanksgiving week, but not all.
Onto levels to watch: As we pointed out, 7000 SPX was massive overhead resistance into year end and we failed just shy of that. Now to the downside. One important line to keep note of is 6350 SPX, where a heavy cluster of options sits opposite that big 7000 call wall (as part of the same institutional positioning into year end). Just below that is the 200-day moving average (Just below 6200 SPX). Those are the most meaningful downside targets if today’s decline follows through. Today’s lows are just over -5% from the recent highs and line up with the lows from the Oct. 13 China/Rare Earths volatility shock — the episode that arguably kicked off this entire period of instability. If today’s lows break (and they arguably did at the close), a move toward ~6350 and a ~7.5% pullback (and a VIX +30) becomes very plausible in the near term. If today’s lows hold tomorrow, it may provide some minor relief from the volatility into next week as option buyers of this week turn into sellers.
For tomorrow, PMI’s and Consumer Sentiment. The SPX expected move is now 1.3%, one of the largest we’ve seen since Spring.
Friday, Nov 21st (consensus)
Fed Speak: Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan
9:45am - S&P Manufacturing PMI (52)
9:45am - S&P Services PMI (54.8)
10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment (50.5)
SPX Expected Move: 1.3%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Stocks Whipsaw After Nvidia Earnings
Liz joins Guy and Dan to discuss NVDA’s wild ride, and how some cracks began to show in some other tech names right off the jump this morning. The discussion turns to why the market is suddenly weak given that the entire AI trade hinges on the AI spend, where some companies are already getting punished for that spend, with META as Exhibit A. Discussion on the Fed voters, Walmart earnings, healthcare stocks, valuations and recent earnings guidance by sector.
SoFi Weekly Report - S&P YTD returns vs P/E and EPS. The Fed, future rate cuts, and where current Fed voting members stand.
FactSet / Butters Report - A comparison of recently earnings growth by sector.
Analysis - NVDA, QQQ, SPY, META, ORCL, WMT, XLV,
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Most Exciting Time In Stock Market History with CME Group CEO Terry Duffy
Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Terry Duffy, CEO and Chairman of CME Group, at the CME Group Tour Championship in Naples, Florida. They discuss a range of topics including Bitcoin, gold, equities, and market correlations, offering insights into the current financial landscape. The conversation highlights the role of CME’s initiatives in retail trading, emphasizing the company's efforts in prediction markets and partnerships with platforms like Robinhood and FanDuel. Other key points include the evolution of market structure, the significance of the ten-year bond, and the increasing relevance of gold and crypto assets. Additionally, Duffy reflects on his leadership style, institutional trust, and future challenges and opportunities in finance.
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
