MARKET WRAP

Another dreary day for equities as they drifted lower throughout the day, with small attempts at rallies sold and finishing near the days lows, with SPX now officially in correction, down 10% from its (very recent) highs. Here’s today’s damage: SPX -1.2%, QQQ -1.9%, IWM -1.6%. Yields were slightly lower, as was oil. Gold surged to a new high.

• On today’s RiskReversal Pod Peter Boockvar joins Guy to talk CPI/PPI, inflation trends, the Federal Reserve’s predicament, Japan, Europe, bond yields and gold.

• On today’s MRKT Call, when does mega cap tech start to make sense again?

MRKT MATRIX: March 13, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Stocks tumble on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 into a 10% correction (CNBC)

• ‘I’m not going to bend at all’: Trump doubles down on tariff plans as stocks sink (CNBC)

• ‘Buy The Dip’ Calls Fade as Trump Selloffs Rattle Wall Street (Bloomberg)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent says a 'detox' period for the economy does not have to be a recession (CNBC)

• Trump’s Big Bet: Americans Will Tolerate Economic Downturn to Restore Manufacturing (NYT)

• Trump’s $1.4 Trillion Tariff Threat Spurs Companies to Seek Cover (Bloomberg)

• Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels (WSJ)

• Stagflation Trade Emerges as Rare Winner in US Stock Market Rout (Bloomberg)

• Schumer Says Democrats Will Block GOP Plan to Avert Shutdown (Bloomberg)

• Tesla’s Stock Still Isn’t Cheap (WSJ)

• Alibaba Unveils AI Agent App in Race to Keep Up With Rivals (Bloomberg)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by CME Group

Is It Finally Time To Buy The Mag7 Stocks?

The show begins with a review of the past two days’ inflation data, followed by insights from Liz’s latest, highlighting inflation expectations. The discussion explores how these expectations and ongoing policy uncertainty are influencing both the markets and the broader economy. Next, the S&P e-mini chart is analyzed for potential support levels, followed by a Q&A session covering stocks like FCX and TGT. A check-in on the Nasdaq e-mini examines whether mega-cap tech leaders have the potential to drive a market rebound—though Peter Boockvar (appearing on the RR Pod today) suggests they may not play that role this time around. This leads to a closer look at AAPL and NVDA charts.

That discussion transitions into the Chart of the Day from Doug Kass, highlighting at what level Mag7 valuations may start to look attractive. The US10Y yield is then examined, along with the GLD and DXY charts, and the divergence between GDX (miners) and gold. The show continues with key moves in XYZ before Call of the Day featuring INTC, and concludes with more audience questions, including an analysis of BA.

Click here to access all of the charts mentioned in today’s MRKT Call.

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Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Betterment and RBC

Peter Boockvar: The Mag7 Unwind & Global Treasury Market Shakeups

Guy Adami is joined by Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakly Financial Group. They discuss the recent CPI report, inflation trends, and the implications for the Federal Reserve. Peter also examines how higher interest rates affect different sectors, the impact of tariffs, and the challenges faced by the AI and tech sectors. The conversation extends to global markets, including notable changes in Japan and Europe, and their potential influence on U.S. bond yields. Additionally, they explore the resilience of the gold market in a volatile economic landscape. Timecodes:

0:00 - The Big Picture

4:30 - Mag7 Unwind

9:15 - Yen Impacts

14:30 - Tariffs

17:50 - Jobs & Leadership

23:00 - Commodities

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What’s Next?

Today started out with the latest inflation update which came in cooler than expected but the reaction by investors was colored by a few things, backward revisions, what can be extrapolated out to the PCE, and the fact that the number doesn’t yet capture tariff effects. Here’s Peter Boockvar to summarize:

Bottom line, markets are extrapolating out the components here that plug into the PCE and the healthcare pieces all saw gains and likely explains why Treasury yields are slightly higher post PPI release. Also, we know this data is pre tariff implementation and the 2% rise in the CRB raw materials index over the past 2 weeks and by 5.6% year to date. Inflation breakevens are unchanged after the jump yesterday.

The inflation outlook is getting more and more complicated.

Now to equities. The SPX is officially in correction territory and sentiment is terrible. From an investor or trader’s perspective, it’s clear that no one is willing to take risks amid this ongoing re-pricing of equity valuations. This mood is evident both intraday—where small rallies quickly fade—and outside equities, in broader economic sentiment among businesses and consumers.

Tomorrow morning, we get the latest Consumer Confidence update, and market participants are bracing for bad news. Expected market moves are similar to today’s:

• SPX/SPY: 1.2%

• QQQ: 1.5%

• IWM: 1.4%

That level of implied volatility is high. However, the selling remains orderly—there’s no panic, just a growing sense of revulsion. That’s dangerous in and of itself as this could resemble a slow bleed for sometime. A 10% correction could be enough to spark a short-term bounce, but unless something dramatically shifts market sentiment (either through a full washout panic or a positive catalyst), the current pattern is likely the default setting for equities for now.

The flipside of the sentiment side of things is with so much of this having been somewhat self inflicted via the chaotic news cycle, it could also be stopped theoretically. That sentiment actually held up equities a little bit at the beginning of this sell-off. But the growing revulsion in markets now indicates investors are no longer holding their breath for that to happen.

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