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Old School Earnings Bounce in NVDA Helps SPX to 6500
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, August 2025
RiskReversal Media
August 28, 2025
MARKET WRAP
The SPX finally cracked slightly above 6500 today, setting a new high. It wasn’t exactly an NVDA-powered move, but with the stock clawing back to flat after its post-earnings sell-off, it didn’t hurt. On the day, SPX +0.3%, QQQ +0.6% and IWM +0.2%. Tomorrow morning is PCE.
Elsewhere, not a huge move in yields but they continue to creep lower, with the US10YY now 4.21%, and getting close to the lowest we’ve seen since April’s chaos. Gold was higher, the dollar slightly lower. The VIX closed the day lower to 14.45.
After hours: MRVL is lower by -8%, DELL is -3%, GAP -7% while ULTA is +6% following earnings.
MRKT Call: Liz joins Guy and Dan to break down NVDA’s earnings, the yield convergence across assets, the potential for cracks in the repo market. They also hit SoFi’s weekly report on rate-cut cycles and market performance, plus a roundup of tickers in the news this week.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan Nathan welcomes Kristin Kelly and Jen Saarbach from The Wall Street Skinny. The conversation covers attacks on the Federal Reserve, the resurgence of SPACs, meme stocks and highlighting a potential problem in the Repo market in mid September.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 rises to 6,500 for the first time as Nvidia results validate AI boom (CNBC)
Nvidia Forecasts Decelerating Growth After Two-Year AI Boom (Bloomberg)
Mexico to Raise Tariffs on Imports From China After US Push (Bloomberg)
Best Buy reports modest sales recovery, but says tariffs are complicating its turnaround (CNBC)
US Economy Expands at Revised 3.3% Rate on Stronger Investment (Bloomberg)
Bond Market Bonanza Leaves Investors With Razor-Thin Safety Net (Bloomberg)
RFK Jr. limits who is eligible for COVID shots (Axios)
Lawyers for Susan Monarez say ‘she remains as CDC Director’, only Trump has power to ‘fire her’ (CNBC)
WHAT’S NEXT?
With NVDA’s report now behind us, that sets the stage for tomorrow’s PCE — a cooler print would likely be the last breakout catalyst needed to clear this important 6500 overhead level, while a hotter number (paired with any second-guessing of NVDA’s bounce) would put us back into a similar situation as the past few weeks.
Big picture though, the market continues to shrug off just about every threat. Even NVDA’s wobbly earnings reaction — good, but maybe not good enough — turned into another example of traders scooping up a -5% dip like clockwork. As Guy has pointed out recently though, NVDA is a stock where the reaction isn’t often realized until the days after earnings as sentiment has some time to gather steam. For tomorrow:
Friday, August 29th (consensus)
Pre-market: BABA 6%
8:30am - PCE (0.3%, 2.9%)
9:45 - Chicago PMI (46)
10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment (58.6)
SPX Expected Move: 0.4% (6470-6530)
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode:
Liz joins Guy and Dan to discuss NVDA’s earnings from last night, the convergence in yields across SPX forward earnings, corporate bonds, treasuries, and REITs (flagged by Apollo) — and whether that’s a red flag. Plus, a look at possible cracks in the repo markets, this week’s SoFi report on rate cuts and stock performance, plus a rundown of tickers making headlines this week.
Analysis - NVDA, SPX, US10YY, TSLA, SMH, SNOW, CRWD, XLV,
SoFi Weekly Blog - The historical record for stocks following recession induced rate cuts.
Your Questions:
WAVY MCFLY - Can you guys please cover the Accounts Receivables in Nvidia’s earnings report? Not just the big top line numbers please. Thanks.
Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Warning Signs Of a Repo Armageddon?
In this special edition of the RiskReversal Podcast, Dan Nathan welcomes Kristin Kelly and Jen Saarbach from The Wall Street Skinny. They discuss their content creation journey, initially aimed at demystifying Wall Street sectors for newcomers and evolving to cover broader market dynamics. The conversation covers attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence, implications of political influence on monetary policy, and the potential market repercussions. They also delve into the resurgence of SPACs, exploring their mechanics and market impact during zero-interest rate environments. The episode wraps with a an upcoming problem linked to the Repo market that could have wide ramifications.
Learn more about our sponsor SoFi.
