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One Puff Away From an All Time High
RiskReversal Recap: June 26, 2025
RiskReversal Media
June 26, 2025
MARKET WRAP
The SPX pushed right up against its all-time highs. It was a steady, low-volatility grind most of the session, with volatility expectations continuing to decline, alongside treasury yields. Additionally, the upcoming tariff deadline was downplayed, adding to the confidence of buyers to perhaps push the indices to new highs. On the day, SPX +0.8%, QQQ +0.9% and IWM +1.7%.
Elsewhere, the 10YY decline to 4.24% certainly helped small caps, Gold and Oil were quite once again while the dollar continues its decline, with DXY now $97.29. The VIX is now 16.50, with short duration vol only pricing in 0.5% daily moves.
After hours: NKE is down very slightly following its earnings report, conference call to come. Both SPY and QQQ are a tick lower from their strong close.
MRKT Call: The relentless rally and will the AI trade power us to higher highs. A look at MU’s earnings reversal. Discussion on recent mixed economic data and whether that’s enough for the Fed to cut rates. Plus, the SoFi report on the lack of stocks at or above 52 week highs.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 closes modestly higher, a hair’s breadth away from hitting a new record (CNBC)
US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Slash Recreation Spending (Bloomberg)
Trump Pivots to Tax Cuts to Combat Voters’ Economic Anxiety (Bloomberg)
Trump Says Three or Four People on List to Replace Fed’s Powell (Bloomberg)
US Bank Stocks Revival Depends on Relaxed Rules and Deal Recovery (Bloomberg)
OpenAI, Microsoft Rift Hinges on How Smart AI Can Get (WSJ)
US IPO Stocks Jump Over 50% in 2025 as Investor Appetite for Risk Grows (Bloomberg)
EU Considers Lowering Tariffs on U.S. Imports in Effort to Woo Trump (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
This morning’s GDP report came in below expectations, but that was offset by stronger-than-expected jobless claims. The bigger driver for investors remains growing confidence that the Fed may soon have room to cut rates — a narrative quietly gaining traction since last Friday, despite being initially overshadowed by U.S.-Iran headlines. That view has been reinforced by the steady decline in Treasury yields, with the 10-year now now 4.24%.
Today’s rally also got a boost from the White House, which appeared to downplay the importance of the looming 90-day tariff reprieve deadline. They suggested the timeline isn’t set in stone, potentially adding more to the bull case that the entire thing is being quietly shelved — a far cry from the Rose Garden three months ago. Meanwhile, volatility expectations continue to fade. The VIX has compressed sharply, helped first by the Middle East ceasefire and now possibly by fading tariff risks. That leaves the economy as the market’s main focus — and while signals are mixed, there’s nothing flashing red at the moment. The result: a setup that favors a slow summer trading type grind higher, something that seemed unlikely just a week ago but must now be considered, even through the prior highs.
If this calm backdrop holds, dip-buying could remain the default. With the VIX closing in on a 15 handle, intraday pullbacks and even modest overnight gaps lower (barring major geopolitical surprises) are increasingly unlikely to spark outsized downside. The one minor wild card here near term is those prior highs, where some profit taking is likely to occur. But that’s more psychological than anything significant market-structure wise. In fact. there’s much more support from the options market in the 5900-6000 SPX area than there is overhead supply above 6150.
Tomorrow we get more Fed talk, as well as PCE inflation data. The daily expected move in SPX is just 0.5%! That’s one of the lowest one day volatility expectations we’ve seen in months.
Friday June 27th
All Day - Fed Governor speeches
8:30am - PCE
10am - UoM Consumer Sentiment
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Stocks Rise as S&P 500 Nears Record High | Live Stream
The relentless rally. Will the AI trade power us to higher highs? A look at MU’s earnings reversal. Recent mixed economic data and whether that’s enough for the Fed to cut rates. Plus, the SoFi report on the lack of stocks at or above 52 week highs. |
Analysis: SPX, MU, DXY, PLTR, CRM, ADBE, Crude, XLE, EQT, NKE, LULU, TLSA
SoFi Report - Decoding geopolitical fear index at highs, with oil prices in mid 60’s. Also, the percentage of stocks at 52 week highs.
Your Questions Answered:
Is MU’s price action a precursor for NVDA and PLTR?
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