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Oracle Parties Like It's 1999
RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, Sept 10th
RiskReversal Media
September 10, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks got a one two punch to new highs, with a cooler-than-expected PPI print, and Oracle’s massive earnings move. Still, the combination wasn’t enough to push the market decisively into escape velocity territory, with a slight fade from morning highs in SPX and QQQ as some megacaps, small caps and industrials closed in the red. Tomorrow morning we get CPI. On the day: SPX +0.3%, QQQ unched, IWM -0.2%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY was lower on the PPI, gold and the dollar were quiet, while the VIX ticked slightly higher. Oil is back near $64.
Notable Gainers: ORCL +35.2%, AVGO +9.7%, VST +6.8%, CEG +6.7%, NVDA +3.8%, MU +3.5%, KLAR +15%
Notable Decliners: CHWY -16.6%, SNPS -35.5%, TTD -11.9%, CRM -3.5%, AMZN -3.3%, AAPL -3.2%, MCD -2.1%, IBM -1.6%, V -1.5%, DIS -1.4%
After hours: Not much after hours action, ORCL is down a tad as are SPY and QQQ.
MRKT Call: Live from Vegas, Carter and Dan sit down with Robinhood’s Stephanie Guild to break down Oracle’s surge, a cooler PPI print, the equal-weight index, and which sectors beyond tech could shine in a rate cut cycle.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan, Steph Guild, and Michael Obucina cover everything from Oracle’s surge and the AI trade to IPOs, rate cuts, sector trends, macro risks, and upcoming rate cuts.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 closes at record for second day on inflation data, Oracle stock surge (CNBC)
5 takeaways from the producer price inflation report with another key reading on tap (CNBC)
Trump Asks Appeals Court to Let Him Oust Fed’s Lisa Cook (Bloomberg)
Oracle Shares Surge Most Since 1992 on Cloud Contract Wins (Bloomberg)
Meta’s Elite AI Unit Sparks Tension With Old Guard (WSJ)
Apple Releases Thinner ‘iPhone Air,’ Seeking to Boost Upgrades With New Design (WSJ)
Klarna opens at $52 per share in NYSE debut after pricing IPO above range (CNBC)
Subprime Lender That Caters to Migrants Files for Liquidation (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Today was an interesting day. AI-linked names like AVGO and NVDA participated in the ORCL rally. But offsetting that strength somewhat, other megacaps including AAPL and AMZN (along with select defensive stocks) ended lower, keeping today’s rally from hitting escape velocity.
Attention now turns to tomorrow’s CPI release. Another cooler-than-expected inflation reading could give equities room to attempt a real breakout here. (Though the underlying drivers of disinflation would raise some questions). But bottom line, with the Fed about to cut rates with equities at record highs, amidst AI-driven enthusiasm, today carried echoes of past bubbles—and with Oracle of all stocks at the center, some 1999 vibes.
Another note, treasury yields slipped back toward the lows of the week following today’s PPI. Near term that is another tailwind and potentially a setup that could broaden participation and give us that escape velocity. We’ll know a lot more tomorrow following the CPI. Last month it was a good CPI, followed by a bad PPI. We’ll see what happens this month with the order reversed. In addition to the CPI we also have and ECB decision and Jobless Claims before the open, while Adobe reports after the close:
Thursday (consensus)
Pre-market: KR 6%
8:15 - ECB Rate Decision
8:30am - CPI (0.3%, 3.1%)
8:30am - Initial Jobless Claims (235k)
8:45am - ECB Presser
After-hours: ADBE 9%
SPX Expected Move: 0.5%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: MRKT Call at HOOD Summit 2025
Carter and Dan are joined live from the Robinhood Summit by Robinhood’s own Stephanie Guild to discuss Oracle’s massive move, the cooler than expected PPI report, the state of the equal-weight index, and whether this is a market top or just a consolidation before an epic breakout. They also dig into which sectors outside of tech could be attractive heading into a rate cut cycle.
Analysis - SPX, RSP, ORCL, NVDA, JPM, KRE, APO, KKR, LULU, UNH, MSFT, AVGO, ADBE
Live Robinhood Trade - ORCL Put Calendar
Earnings Preview - ADBE
Learn more about our sponsor, Robinhood.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: The Mag7 Is No Longer The Mag7 with Robinhood's Steph Guild & Michael Obucina
Dan Nathan is joined by Steph Guild, and Michael Obucina of Robinhood to discuss a wide range of topics. They start by celebrating the success of the Hood 2025 event . Topics include the today’s remarkable move in Oracle, the broader implications for AI-related stocks, and the sentiment in the options market. They also touch on IPO market trends, regulatory environment changes, and the impact of upcoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Specific focus is given to sectors such as regional banks, defense technology, and homebuilders. Additionally, the conversation extends to macroeconomic factors including tariffs, inflation, yield curves, and the ongoing geopolitical risks. The episode wraps up with insights on future market expectations, potential corrections, and the sentiment surrounding cryptocurrencies and gold.
Learn more about our sponsor Robinhood.
