- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- Rally Reaches New Highs Ahead of Next Week's Tests
Rally Reaches New Highs Ahead of Next Week's Tests
RiskReversal Recap: July 25, 2025
RiskReversal Media
July 25, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened flat but drifted steadily higher throughout the session, capping off a strong week with the S&P 500 up roughly +1.5% and closing at new all-time highs. On the day, the SPX +0.4%, QQQ +0.2%, and IWM +0.4%.
It was relatively quiet elsewhere. The US10YY is now 4.39%, gold pulled back slightly, while the dollar rose on the day. Implied volatility continued to collapse, with the VIX closing just below 15. The rally will face some big tests next week, it’s loaded with high profile earnings and macro events.
Notable Gainers: DECK +12%, NEM +6.8%, TSLA +3.5%, AXP +1.2%, GS +1.4%, MCD +1.3%
Notable Losers: INTC -8.4%, CHTR -19%, CMCSA -4.8%, NOW -2.8%, DOC -6.7%
After hours: SPY and QQQ both a tick higher from their close.
RiskReversal Pod: Dan Greenhaus from Solus Alternative Asset Management joins Guy and Dan to discuss tariff impacts, consumer spending, the housing market, AI's transformative potential, market valuation and much more.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 jumps to another record as it closes out winning week on strong earnings, trade deal optimism (CNBC)
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: July 25, 2025 (FactSet)
Trump’s Tariffs Are Being Picked Up by Corporate America (WSJ)
Trump Is Shifting to Dealmaking Mode on China (WSJ)
US-Japan Trade Deal Hinges on Fund That Remains a Puzzle (Bloomberg)
OpenAI prepares to launch GPT-5 in August (The Verge)
Tech firms to showcase AI innovations in a China under US sanctions (Reuters)
Inside Tesla’s Secretive Optimus Robot Program (The Information)
Elon Musk's Starlink network suffers rare global outage (Reuters)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The Week that Was
After some early-week volatility that briefly tested the 6300 level in SPX, stocks settled into a steady grind higher, closing out just shy of 6400 and finishing the week up around +1.5%. The rally was driven by consistent intraday buying and an ongoing collapse in index volatility. But beneath that calm surface, there were some fireworks in individual names.
Some of the sharpest declines came from companies that couldn’t live up to high expectations heading into earnings, with weak forward guidance emerging as a common theme. On the flip side, the bulk of the gains were powered by strength in the usual Mag7 names, alongside a fresh wave of meme stock mania that dominated daily headlines.
Next Week
Next week is the biggest of the earnings season, with reports due from Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft, as well as names like Boeing and UnitedHealth. We’ll also hear from meme-adjacent stocks like Robinhood, Coinbase, and MicroStrategy.
The macro side is no less loaded—GDP, PCE, and the July jobs report all hit, alongside a midweek FOMC rate decision. And with the calendar turning to August, expect trade war chatter as the perpetual wild card. It’s the kind of week that could test the low-volatility environment we’ve been in.
We’ll be back this weekend with a full preview of all the key catalysts—check your inbox on Sunday.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Dan Greenhaus Says What Wall Street Won't...
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Dan Greenhaus from Solus Alternative Asset Management to discuss the intricacies of the current market trends. The conversation covers a range of topics, including the contentious rally in the S&P 500, the implications of tariffs, and the future of global trade. Greenhaus shares his skepticism about the severity of tariff impacts and delves into the complexities of inflation, interest rates, and the weakening dollar. They also explore the robustness of consumer spending, the housing market's significance, and financial sector performance. A notable discussion on AI's transformative potential and market overvaluation rounds out the episode. The hosts conclude by sharing their views on stock market trajectories and potential economic hurdles in the coming months.
Learn more about our sponsor CME Group, iConnections, and Robinhood.
