RiskReversal Recap: July 19, 2024

Doomsday for Global IT

MARKET WRAP

The major indices were lower today as the shift out of technology stocks continued.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down around three-quarters of a percent. The S&P was down 2% on the week for its worst five-day stretch since April, according to CNBC.

Technology was the worst-performing sector on the day and week, driven by losses in semiconductor stocks.

American Express shares fell nearly 3% after the company reported a second-quarter revenue miss. However, the company topped earnings expectations and raised its full-year profit guidance.

Netflix shares were down by nearly 2% after reporting on Thursday evening. The company beat on both the top and bottom lines, with memberships coming in higher than expected, but forecasts for the third-quarter revenue came in below consensus.

According to FactSet’s senior earnings analyst John Butters, of the companies that have reported so far, 80% have reported positive EPS.

Investors should get a clearer picture next week when roughly 80 companies in the S&P 500 are set to report.

MRKT MATRIX: July 19, 2024

Today’s Top Stories:

  • Dow drops, S&P 500 has worst week in 3 months (CNBC)

  • ‘Largest IT outage in history’ leaves world reeling (CNBC)

  • Activist Elliott Takes Big Stake in Starbucks (WSJ)

  • Morgan Stanley says there’s an AI opportunity investors are missing — and this chip stock is top way to play (CNBC)

  • Elon Musk’s crusade against California is seeing Tesla sales in the Golden State plummet while demand for Rivian EVs soar (Fortune)

  • Trump Vows to End Electric Vehicle ‘Mandate’ on Day One (Bloomberg)

  • Economists Trim US Inflation Forecasts, Paving Way for Fed Cut (Bloomberg)

  • ‘Greatest Bubble’ Nearing Its Peak, Says Black Swan Manager (WSJ)

Today’s On The Tape is Presented by CME Group and iConnections

Liz Ann Sonders Reveals Second Half Outlook For Stock Market

Liz Ann Sonders, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins the discussion to review her past predictions and analyze market performance over the last six to seven months. Sonders elaborates on the Fed's rate policy, market behavior, and sector performance, highlighting the significant divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks. She stresses the importance of quality factors over monolithic sector strategies, the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment, and the nuanced nature of this unique economic cycle. Sonders also touches on election-related volatility, the potential for a more active investing environment, and the inherent risks that could influence market trajectories in the second half of the year.

  • 0:00 - Intro

  • 1:15 - 2024 Thus Far

  • 7:00 - Historic Comps

  • 10:00 - 2nd Half Outlook

  • 15:25 - Political Impacts

  • 27:50 - Opportunities

  • 33:30 - Valuation Problem

  • 35:10 - Potential Risks

Sign up below to receive daily MRKT Call reminders and early access to the charts featured in the show.

Subscribe to the RiskReversal YouTube Channel and drop a comment/like to show your support

Want to check out past episodes? Search for “On The Tape,” “MRKT Call,” or “Okay, Computer.” wherever you listen to podcasts

We want to hear your feedback! Reply to this email with any comments or questions