RiskReversal Recap: March 26, 2024

Chart Check on Stocks at Record Highs

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by Fidelity

Chart Check on Stocks at Record Highs

Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Carter Worth break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Tuesday, March 26th.

Click here to access the charts mentioned in today’s MRKT Call.

Why Be Bullish Utilities?

Utilities (XLU) 2-YR Chart

Utilities (XLU) Implied Volatility

CME FedWatch Tracker (June Meeting)

Bearish Utilities (XLU) Trade

XLU ($63.88) Buy June 65/70 Call Spread for ~$1.50

  • Buy to open 1 June 65 call for ~$1.85

  • Sell to open 1 June 70 call at ~$0.35

Break-Even on June Expiration:

  • Profits of up to $3.50 between $66.50 and $70 with a max gain above $70

  • Losses of up to $1.50 between $65 and $66.50 with a max loss below $65

Trade Rationale & Management:

  • This trade idea risks 2.5% of the ETF price and has a break-even up 4% with a max payout of 5.5% if the ETF is up ~10% in two and a half months

  • As with all long premium directional trade ideas, we will cut the loss if the position is half the original premium paid

Caterpillar (CAT) 4-YR Chart

Why Fade Caterpillar?

Bearish Caterpillar (CAT) Trade

CAT (~$357.50) Buy to Open 1 May 350 put for ~$11

Break-Even on May Expiration:

  • Profits below $339

  • Losses of up to $11 between $339 and $350 with max loss above

Trade Rationale and Management:

  • This trade idea risks about 3% of the stock price and has a break-even down of ~5%

  • The stock is up 21% in the year, doubling the performance of the SPX and up 66% in the last 12 months, compared to the SPX's 31% gains

  • If the stock starts to move towards the long put strike, I will look to speed up by selling a lower strike put, creating a put spread.

  • May expiration will catch Q1 earnings the last week of April targeting the breakout level from late January

  • As with all long premium directional trade ideas, we will cut the loss if the position is half the original premium paid

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WHAT WE’RE READING

  • Stocks Erase Gains as Nvidia Weighs on Big Tech (Bloomberg)

  • Watch for Potential Wave of Share Splits as the Average Price of S&P 500 Stock hits $160, says Strategas (CNBC)

  • Reddit Ignites Meme Stock Resurgence, Further Signs of 'Bull Market in Everything' (Yahoo Finance)

  • Trump Media Is Now the Most Expensive US Stock to Bet Against (Bloomberg)

  • Apple Announces its Big Annual Conference, Where it Could Reveal its AI Strategy (CNBC)

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