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RiskReversal Recap: Wednesday, Nov 12th
RiskReversal Media
November 12, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks finished mixed today with the SPX unchanged. Some more divergence today — megacap tech lagged a bit, dragging the Nasdaq slightly lower. Small caps also pulled back a bit. Meanwhile healthcare, financials and other sectors are showing relative strength this week, powering the Dow to new highs. For the 3 days this week the DJIA is +3% while the QQQ’s are flat.
On the day, SPX +0.1%, QQQ -0.1%, and IWM -0.3%.
Elsewhere, the US10YY was lower, now 4.07%. Gold continues its bounce, up 1.9%. Oil sharply lower to 58.40. BTC continues to struggle flirting with the 100k level again, now 101k. The VIX was higher to 17.50.
Notable Gainers: AMD +9.1%, ALB +6.1%, UAL +5.2%, +4.8%, LUV +4.5%, CSCO +3%, GS +3.5%, UNH +3.5%
Notable Losers: AMZN -2%, CVX -2%, PANW -3.7%, HAL -4%, ORCL -3.8%, TSLA -2%
After Hours Earnings Moves: CSCO is higher by about +6.4% following its report. That’s a slightly larger move than options were pricing.
Today’s MRKT Call: Guy and Dan are joined by Steph and Michael from Robinhood to discuss the Dow’s recent outperformance, rising implied volatility ahead of NVDA earnings, and a review of last week’s trade.
Today’s RiskReversal Pod: Dan is joined by CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa to break down the evolving US-China AI race, China’s open-source strategy, CapEx spending, and the implications for companies like CoreWeave, Meta, and AMD.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow scores first close above 48,000, buoyed by expected end of government shutdown (CNBC)
White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released because of the shutdown (CNBC)
US Wants to Start Easing Flight Cuts Within a Week Post-Shutdown (Bloomberg)
The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut (WSJ)
Car Loan Delinquencies Hit Record for Riskiest Borrowers (Bloomberg)
AMD stock soars 7% on strong growth projections as CEO Su calls AI spending ‘the right gamble’ (CNBC)
The AI Boom Is Looking More and More Fragile (WSJ)
Anthropic to spend $50 billion on U.S. AI infrastructure, starting with Texas, New York data centers (CNBC)
Private equity group Vista to cut staff in favour of AI (FT)
WHAT’S NEXT?
The market seems to be catching its breath with two straight pins at the 6850 level in the SPX. Traders are waiting for a few key catalysts: a confirmed end to the government shutdown (which could come as soon as tonight), the resumption of delayed economic data, and the main event — NVDA earnings next Wednesday.
Volatility remains bid even as intraday ranges compress, suggesting traders aren’t fully buying the calm lasting, after last week’s wild swings. NVDA’s earnings are likely to dominate sentiment from here — the stock has a habit of setting the tone for the broader market in the weeks following its report, and that could be especially true heading into year-end. As for macro data, the odds of a December rate cut sit around 65%, but with the shutdown delaying reports like CPI, PPI and NFP, the White House indicated that some of the missed data might simply be skipped rather than backfilled. That either means a rush of old numbers in the next week or two, or a bit of a gap in data — both of which could keep volatility somewhat elevated into the Dec FOMC.
Tomorrow brings Disney earnings before the open, AMAT after the close, and Fed speak, but we will not be getting the scheduled CPI and PPI until at least next week.
Thursday,
Pre-market: DIS 6%, JD 6%
Fed Speak: Daly, Musalem, Hammack
After-hours: AMAT 5%, NU 7%
SPX expected move: 0.6%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Mag 7 Sell-Off! How to Trade the Tech Rotation
Guy and Dan are joined by Steph and Michael from Robinhood to discuss recent market action. Guy begins by pointing out the outperformance of the Dow in recent days and whether that’s worth watching. A preview of NVDA earnings and a look at how high implied vol is into the print. Plus a roll of last week’s trade,
Robinhood Live Trade - Recapping the NVDA put calendar, and rolling it into earnings.
Analysis - SPX, TLT, SMH, NVDA, AMD, NVO
Learn more about our sponsor, Robinhood.
Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: You Can't Ignore How Little China Spends on AI CapEx
Dan Nathan and Deirdre Bosa, CNBC's Tech Check host, delve into key topics around AI technology and investments. They discuss the growing influence of Chinese open-source AI models and compare US and Chinese AI CapEx spending, drawing on insights from a Bloomberg tweet thread. The conversation highlights China's commoditization strategy in AI and its implications for US-China tech competition. They also scrutinize tech companies like Core Weave, Meta, and AMD, examining their financial strategies, AI ambitions, and market performance. The challenges of power constraints, valuation concerns, and investor sentiment shifts in the AI and tech sectors are thoroughly explored.
Learn more about our sponsor Current and RBC Capital Markets.
