- RiskReversal Recap
- Posts
- S&P Ekes Out a New Closing High, Nasdaq Slightly Red
S&P Ekes Out a New Closing High, Nasdaq Slightly Red
RiskReversal Recap: Thursday, July 10th
RiskReversal Media
July 10, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened the day with pockets of selling, particularly in software and select tech names, dragging the Nasdaq red early. But once again, buyers stepped in across most sectors, helping the SPX grind to a new intraday all time high (6290) before a bit of quick selling in the final minutes took the SPX’s down to last Thursday’s all time closing high level. Still, officially a new all time high by a hair at 6980. On the day: SPX +0.3%, QQQ -0.2% and IWM +0.5%
Elsewwere, yields were quiet as was gold and the dollar. Oil with a notable -2% pullback and the VIX is now 15.78.
Notable Gainers: DAL +12%, UAL +14%, TSLA +5%, AMD +4%, AXP +2%, JPM +1.7%
Notable Losers: ADSK -7%, PANW -7%, CRM -2.5%, TEAM -9%, WMT -2%
After hours: SPY, QQQ and IWM all down a tick after hours
MRKT Call: Guy and Dan look at GDP, Inflation and EPS estimates via SoFi’s weekly report. Then energy, airlines, retail, software, and your questions.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
Dow gains 200 points as traders shake off tariff developments (CNBC)
Trump’s 50% Levy on Brazil Shows World Nothing Is Off Limits (Bloomberg)
What Division Inside the Fed Means for Future Interest-Rate Cuts (Bloomberg)
White House accuses Powell of mismanaging Federal Reserve, citing headquarters renovation (CNBC)
TSMC Revenue Climbs 39% in Latest Sign of AI Spending Boom (Bloomberg)
Delta Gives Upbeat Outlook as CEO Hails ‘Stable’ Environment (Bloomberg)
OpenAI to release web browser in challenge to Google Chrome (CNBC)
Meta Poached Apple’s Pang With Pay Package Over $200 Million (Bloomberg)
Amazon Web Services is building equipment to cool Nvidia GPUs as AI boom accelerates (CNBC)
Musk Says Grok Chatbot Is Coming to Tesla Vehicles by Next Week (Bloomberg)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Implied volatility continued to fade, with the VIX now decisively below historical norms and squarely in “summer mode.” The market appears comfortable assuming that any looming drama — particularly on the trade front — will be delayed, diluted, or altogether ignored. That includes today’s 50% tariff threats toward Brazil. (It’s worth noting: the U.S. runs a trade surplus with Brazil.)
This week’s decline in implied volatility, especially coming mid Summer and following months of heightened swings creates conditions ripe for slow, steady rallies and perhaps some sideways action in a range in between. While today’s gains weren’t large, the action was classic for a market buoyed by a falling VIX and a “gamma gravity” effect. With call selling around current index levels and minimal urgency to buy downside protection, it becomes increasingly difficult for the market to gap sharply lower — even on bad news — unless that news becomes persistent over a series of days or weeks. One thing to note, in today’s closing minutes the SPX sold off back to last week’s all time closing high. That may be indicative of some potential for sideways action by the indices near these highs, where that same gamma effect also keeps a cap on large intraday moves by SPX to the upside. It’s a small sample size but that range could look like 6200-6300 at least until mid next week when scheduled news flow picks up again. Speaking of that…
Of course, the news vacuum begins to change next week, where we’ll at least start to see stock and sector specific moves on earnings. Next week also sees inflation data. The news flow today certainly appears like the White House is ramping pressure up on Fed Chair Powell, barely hiding leaks meant to justify a change at the Fed. Next week’s data will be an interesting watch, at least politically.
Friday, July 10th
No major economic data or earnings releases
Expected move SPX: 0.4%
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Stocks Continue Slow Melt Up
Guy and Dan look at GDP, Inflation and EPS estimates via SoFi’s weekly report. Then energy, airlines, retail, software, and your questions. |
SoFi Blog - Announced tariffs could lower GDP 2-3% and raise PCE 1-2%. Paradoxically, the TACO trade is less likely if markets stay strong. Unlike 2018, the dollar is weakening this time, and that could be inflationary. The bar is low on EPS consensus.
Analysis - SPX, DAL, LUV, MSFT, EXPE, SOXX, INTC, AMD, Coal, BTU, NFLX, PLTR, SPOT, TGT, TJX
Your Questions Answered:
Donald Clayton - After taking profits, is it customary to wait for a 50% retracement to begin adding to the position again?
WAVY MCFLY - I think Coal is finally getting off the ground, there’s been talk about that being the next target for energy for AI since the Nuclear stuff will take too long, thoughts from Guy.
Learn more about our sponsor, SoFi.
