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Sideways Since Jackson Hole, Awaiting NVIDIA.
RiskReversal Recap: Tuesday, August 26th
RiskReversal Media
August 26, 2025
MARKET WRAP
Stocks opened slightly in the red, but buyers stepped in taking us higher o the day. That erases yesterday’s move lower and keeps us in wait and see mode into Nvidia earnings tomorrow, roughly at the same level as immediately after Jackson Hole. On the day: SPX +0.4%, QQQ +0.4%, and IWM +0.8%
Elsewhere, the US10YY is back to where it was post Jackson Hole, now 4.26%, Gold was slightly higher, DXY slightly lower, Oil pulled back, now $63.40. The VIX was quiet, now 14.60.
Notable Gainers: LLY +5.8%, APP +4.1%, MSTR +2.4%, PLTR +2.4%
Notable Losers: CRM +1.7%, UNH +1.5%, EBAY -4%
After hours: OKTA is up +2%, MDB is +22%, and BOX is +2% on eanrings. SPY and QQQ both up a tick.
MRKT Call: A dive into stretched stock market valuations, rising margin debt, and more. A potential bearish setup in SPY, plus discussion of the INTC deal. Then a preview of NVDA earnings, and wrapping with a look at ongoing weakness in the SaaS space.
RiskReversal Pod: Guy & Liz break down the market’s relentless climb and what Nvidia earnings could mean from here. They also hit on Intel’s news, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, inflation, global bond yields, and the relationship problem if we see rising yields and rising equities.
MRKT MATRIX: TODAY’S TOP STORIES
S&P 500 closes higher as Nvidia gains, traders shake off Trump's latest Fed salvo (CNBC)
Trump Moves to Fire Fed’s Cook, Setting Up Historic Fight (Bloomberg)
Calm in Markets Is All But Over, Goldman and Deutsche Bank Say (Bloomberg)
‘AI Native’ Apps’ $18.5 Billion Annualized Revenues Rebut MIT’s Skeptical Study (The Information)
Apple’s Aversion to Big Deals Could Thwart Its AI Push (The Information)
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence (Stanford Digital Economy Lab)
The Boom in New Steel Mills Is Outpacing Demand (WSJ)
WHAT’S NEXT?
Overhead, 6500 remains the key line of overhead supply/resistance. We’ve seen alot of clustering of closed around the 6450 level going back to mid August, and that’s likely to continue until we here from NVDA at the very least.
Despite today’s rally, the VIX held steady. That’s not surprising, given the low levels of vol at which we currently find ourselves. Short duration options are now squarely pricing NVDA’s earnings tomorrow after the close, then Friday’s PCE print. Further out, the VIX’s 30 day window not only includes this week, but then the run of data leading into September’s FOMC. If NVDA and PCE come in clean, we could see vol collapse to account for the long weekend. But with the 30-day window already covering all of the key catalysts through the FOMC, it looks like the VIX has probably found a short-term low on those prints near 14 with the chance for some spikes soon should any of the data surprise (the long weekend notwithstanding).
Nvidia Earnings (Typically 4:20pm):
Expected Move:
6.5% (about $12 in either direction)
Recent Earnings Moves:
May’25: +3.2%
Feb’25: -8.5%
Nov’24: +0.5%
Aug’24: -6.4%
One risk note, QQQ and SPY options stop trading at 4:15pm, and NVDA typically reports in the minutes following. The window to put in exercise notices is after both. That means options expiring tomorrow in SPY and QQQ are very much in play (at risk if short) after hours. You’ll see the at the money straddle in QQQ “expire” with a great deal of premium to account for the potential movement after hours. If you are short strikes within range, it’s wise to close before 4:15. If you are long out of the money options, the same applies, you’ll be able to sell them for a surprisingly large sum. SPX options expiring tomorrow are cash settled at the regular close, and none of the above applies.
TODAY’S EPISODES
Watch MRKT Call’s newest episode: Earnings Preview: Which Way Will $NVDA Break?
A dive into stretched stock market valuations, rising margin debt, and more. A potential bearish setup in SPY, plus discussion of the INTC deal. Then a preview of NVDA earnings, and wrapping with a look at ongoing weakness in the SaaS space.
Analysis: SPY, NVDA, INTC, LLY, VKTX, CRM, ADBE, WDAY
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Watch RiskReversal Podcast’s newest episode: Why Stocks & Yields Have A "Relationship Problem"
Guy & Liz break down the market’s relentless climb and what Nvidia earnings could mean from here. They also hit on Intel’s news, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, inflation, global bond yields, and the relationship problem if we see rising yields and rising equities.
Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 2:30 - Powell Picks Sides 10:30 - NVDA Impact 12:45 - INTC Stake 16:20 - Earnings Outlook 18:50 - Possible Shocks 22:35 - Low Volume Outlook
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