MARKET WRAP

Markets posted a a quiet rally today. QQQ led, up 1.2% with the SPX up 0.5%. Some names like NVDA stood out, now nearly 10% off its lows (more on that at the bottom of the email). Outside of equities, yields ticked higher again (10y now 4.31%), as did Oil (now $68), moving counter to the recession fear trading seen over the past two weeks. While today’s rally was somewhat encouraging, the SPX has essentially gone sideways since Monday’s bloodbath. Investors will need a healthier follow-through in the coming sessions to remove any dead cat bounce assumptions. The VIX has contracted a tad during this consolidation, now 24.

On today’s MRKT Call, a look at some of the bounces in beaten down tech stocks. And on RiskReversal Pod, discussing today’s inflation report, jobs, tech and more. Enjoy!

MRKT MATRIX: March 12, 2025

Today’s Top Stories:

• Nasdaq pops 1% as major tech stocks rebound (CNBC)

• Goldman cuts S&P 500 2025 target becoming first major bank to blink during sell-off (CNBC)

• The S&P 500 could see 3% to 5% bounce from oversold levels, Piper Sandler says (CNBC)

• The $5 Trillion Stock Wipeout Is Rattling America's Big Spenders (Bloomberg)

• S&P 500’s Slide Brings Huge Options Position Into Rare Focus (Bloomberg)

• Top CEOs mark down economic outlook (Axios)

• JPMorgan cuts Tesla price target, sees stock getting slashed in half (CNBC)

• Apple gets a price target cut from Morgan Stanley due to Siri update delay, U.S. tariffs (CNBC)

• TSMC pitched Intel foundry JV to Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, sources say (Reuters)

• OpenAI Wants Businesses to Build Their Own AI Agents (WSJ)

• Inside Google’s Investment in the A.I. Start-Up Anthropic (NYTimes)

Today’s MRKT Call is Presented by SoFi

Tech Stocks Rebound: Trust The Bounce?

The show kicks off with a look at concerns in the indices and whether a bounce is possible—especially in tech, following this morning’s failed rally. Dan highlights that investors remain hesitant to step in on beaten-down names like NVDA and TSLA. Next, a breakdown of today’s weakest sectors, some of which had rallied yesterday, reinforcing the idea that the market is still in a broad-based decline. Guy turns to AAPL as the ultimate passive investor play and discusses what happens if momentum shifts the other way.

• Call of the Day: Goldman’s David Kostin lowers his year-end SPX target and rebrands the Mag 7 as the Maleficent 7.

• Chart of the Day: A massive spike in bearish sentiment from the AAII survey.

The show continues with a deep dive into the financial sector, focusing on JPM’s chart, followed by a look at transportation stocks (IYT) before shifting into a detailed discussion on retail (XRT, ANF, RH, WMT, and more). Next, a preview of ADBE earnings, and the show wraps up with insights from John Butters’ weekly earnings report.

Click here to access all of the charts mentioned in today’s MRKT Call.

Sign up below to receive daily MRKT Call reminders and early access to the charts featured in the show.

Today’s RiskReversal Podcast is Presented by Betterment and iConnections

Temerity, Punditry & More Stock Market Uncertainty

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dive into the implications of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which came in softer than expected. They discuss how the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metrics, tariffs, and the looming trade war with China affect market sentiment. The conversation touches on the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly the performance of tech stocks like Nvidia ahead of their user conference, the impact of the trade war on inflation, and the potential for a slowdown in the job market. The discussion also highlights the recent performance of banking stocks, consumer spending trends, and the importance of bipartisan support for economic reforms. The episode explores the forecasting challenges faced by market strategists and the potential for significant market moves in the near future.

By clicking “Subscribe, I accept the MoneyLion Privacy Policy.

What’s Next?

Equities put in a small rally today, following a positive inflation reading, perhaps lending some hope that the Fed could come to the rescue should growth start to collapse. But have essentially hovered around the SPX 5600 level since Monday’s sharp decline, the jury is still out on any potentially significant bounce from these lows.

When looking for signs of leadership as we bounce around the lows, NVDA is potentially interesting. It’s now back to levels last seen on March 5th, and up about $10 from lows earlier this week. Granted, this is NVDA and a red day could send it right back to its lows in a half an hour. But given its prior leadership in tech, it’s interesting that NVDA appears to be a couple of days ahead of QQQ’s attempted bounce. The Qs would really like to see participation from names like AAPL for that to happen, but even without, if the Nasdaq follows NVDA, QQQ could rally back to the $488-$490 level to match the move NVDA just put in on its chart. That move would correspond to around 5725 in the SPX, a decent recovery attempt after a brutal two-week decline and one that could relieve some of the day to day volatility. If that were to occur we’d likely see a VIX closer to 20, and then likely a re-assessment by market participants of what comes next.

It’s interesting that we have not seen an obvious panic washout at these lows, which would make a potential bounce — even if just a relief rally — a little more obvious. But sometimes equities have a habit of making things not so obvious. We will see.

Keep an eye on this 6200 level into Friday as there may be some option effect keeping equities close by that strike. It certainly seemed that way today.

For tomorrow, we get the second leg of the inflation data, PPI: Expected moves for tomorrow are as follows:

• SPX/SPY: 1.1%

• QQQ: 1.4%

• IWM: 1.4%

Subscribe to the RiskReversal YouTube Channel and drop a comment/like to show your support

Want to check out past episodes? Search for “On The Tape,” “MRKT Call,” or “Okay, Computer.” wherever you listen to podcasts

We want to hear your feedback! Reply to this email with any comments or questions